ECB’s
Rescue Worsens Spain, Italy Maturity Crunch: Euro Credit
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s bid to bring down Spanish and Italian yields may spur the nations to sell more short-dated notes, swelling the debt pile that needs refinancing in the coming years.
8
August, 2012
The
average maturity of Spanish debt is the shortest since 2004 as Spain,
like Italy, hasn’t issued 15- or 30-year bonds all year. As Prime
Ministers Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy fight to avoid bailouts that
may threaten the euro’s survival, the ECB’s plan risks adding to
pressure on the two nations’ treasuries.
“In
a way what the ECB has done is making the situation worse,” said
Nicola Marinelli, who oversees $160 million at Glendevon King Asset
Management in London. “Focusing on the short-end is very dangerous
for a country because it means that every year after this they will
have to roll over a much larger percentage of their debt.”
Refinancing
Mountain
The
average maturity of Italy’s debt is 6.7 years, the lowest since
2005, the debt agency said in its quarterly bulletin. The target this
year is to keep that average at just below seven years, according to
Maria Cannata, who heads the agency. In Spain, where the 10-year
benchmark bond yields 6.94 percent, the average life is 6.3 years,
the lowest since 2004, data on the Treasury’s website show.
“Driving
down the short-dated yields provides a little bit of comfort and
encourages Spain and Italy to issue more at the short-end,” Marc
Ostwald, a strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London, said.
“The problem is that you are building up a refinancing mountain.”
Draghi
said potential bond purchases, which would be coordinated with
Europe’s rescue fund, would focus “on the short end of the yield
curve” because “this falls squarely within the range of classical
monetary policy instruments.”
Spain
has already asked for a European bailout of as much as 100 billion
euros ($124 billion) for its banks and Rajoy is fighting to maintain
enough access to debt markets to fund the budget deficit. He opened
the door to seeking more external help on Aug. 3, saying he would
consider triggering Draghi’s bond- buying plan if it served
“Spaniards’ best interests.”
Bank
Bailout
By
selling shorter-term debt, Spain has been able to issue 72 percent of
the bonds it plans to sell this year. Draghi’s proposal may buy
time for the government, which doesn’t face any bond redemptions
until October, when it has to pay back 29 billion euros of debt.
“Spain
doesn’t have to come to the bond market until October,” said
Steven Major, head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc in
London. “There’s time for the government to put in place new
measures.”
The
ECB’s previous efforts to stabilize markets have fallen short. It
bought more than 200 billion euros of debt from Greece, Ireland,
Portugal, Italy and Spain, and while the initiative helped slow the
ascent of yields, all bar Italy have had to seek some kind of
external help.
In
a renewed effort to solve the crisis, the ECB lent banks about 1
trillion euros for three years in December and February, with Spanish
banks among the main beneficiaries. As loans were channeled into
sovereign debt purchases, bond yields fell, and then resumed their
ascent as the impact wore off.
Renewed
Effort
Rates
on two-year Spanish notes dropped to as low as 3.38 percent on Aug.
6, the least since May 9, from a euro-era record of 7.15 percent on
July 25. That widened the difference in yield between two-year notes
and 10-year bonds to 343 basis points, the most since Bloomberg began
collecting the data in 1993. The yield spread was 302 basis points at
12:30 p.m. in London, compared with an average over the past five
years of 167 basis points.
Spain
hasn’t sold securities maturing after 2022 this year, while in the
same period a year ago it sold bonds maturing in 2024, 2026, 2037 and
2041. The Treasury last issued 2041 bonds in May 2011 at an average
yield of 6 percent. Those bonds yielded 7.26 percent on the secondary
market today.
Italy
hasn’t sold debt maturing after 2026 this year. It last sold 2040
bonds at an average yield of 5.43 percent in May 2011 and the yield
is 6.48 percent in the market today.
“There
is a shortening of the duration on the bonds, which increases the
roll-over risk,” said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard
Chartered Bank in London. “We don’t see what the ECB said last
week as a game-changer, there are still sizable implementation risks
and investors may lose patience.”
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