Wednesday 22 February 2017

Cold War against the NTHE folk

It is sad to report but there has been a cold war waged against (unnamed) against Guy McPherson but without reference against Sam Carana and the Arctic Blog who work has been cited frequently cited by numerous publications.

And a day or so before that.

I had been wondering what has been motivating Paul to come with so many videos on this theme recently

The following article by Guy is from today.

My Work, and Why I Do It

Guy McPherson
Image result for near term extinction

The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius 

has its limits

~ Albert Einstein

Nature Bats Last
21 February, 201

People often ask why I speak and write about abrupt climate change leading to near-term human extinction. If we can’t fix it, why bother knowing? It’s unclear who we are or what it means to fix this particular predicament.

Actually, people more frequently send me hate mail accusing me of profiting by lying about our demise than asking questions with civility. It’s analogous to claiming a fire lookout gets paid by the number of fires she spots.

I wish. I wish I were lying. I wish I were profiting. I’m not.

I have no idea why I am compelled to defend my conclusions, all of which are supported by abundant evidence. I suppose my inner teacher believes I can overcome profound, willful ignorance with evidence. This thought alone indicates my unrepentant optimism regarding the human condition.

Few people accuse their oncologist of profiting after she issues a fatal diagnosis. Once the patient recovers from the shock, he sometimes thanks the honest doctor. And if said medical doctor misunderstands the evidence and offers an incorrect, hopeful diagnosis, then filing a legal claim of malpractice is warranted. Indeed, it’s expected in the United States, the most litigious society in the history of the planet.

I pursue and promote the truth, based on evidence. The evidence comes primarily, and almost exclusively, from the very conservative refereed journal literature. I’m not referring to my truth, a notion rooted in the naively postmodern palaver that we each have our own truth, and that each version of the truth is equally valid. Nor am I referring to the evidence-free religious concept of Truth rooted in patriarchy.

My detractors include unscientific people afraid to face evidence, lovers of the omnicidal heat engine known as civilization, and others who lack the credentials necessary to collate and organize relevant evidence. Few people turn to their plumber for advice about cancer. Yet many people seek and believe diagnoses about climate change from wholly unqualified sources.

I’m routinely accused of horrible intentions and terrible acts. There is no supporting evidence. None is needed when the hate is spewed online from a culture dominated by willfully ignorant, small-minded people with questionable intelligence writing for an audience with similar talents. I won’t even venture into the topic of trolls paid to promote disaster capitalism at every cost.

Were I better-known, I suspect I’d make the list of finalists among the most-hated people in the world. It’s a goal, in any event.

That’s a joke, fools and trolls. If I don’t point it out, every time, it’ll be turned against me.

As I’ve been saying for years, people are stupid. Most of ’em, most of the time.
Among the offenders are offensively ignorant and ill-informed, office-bound modelers who inexplicably believe field observations ought to fit models, rather than the reverse. Among the worst offenders are armchair prognosticators with video cameras and the ability to post online their ever-changing opinions unattached to evidence. Field observations and refereed journal literature are anathema to those who promote the dominant narrative. The latter notably include the folks who benefit from the omnicidal heat engine affectionately known as civilization.

The best critique of my work is a three-year-old series of ad hominem attacks disguised as a blog post. It was written by a self-proclaimed science educator without a Ph.D. degree. No thought is given to his lack of credentials, his motives, the unprofessional quality of his analysis, or the dated nature of his work. Other critics post on blogs or selfie videos, presumably to counter the hundreds of journal articles on which I rely.

My work relies upon evidence. It is rooted in reason. I am a rationalist. Contrary to the cries from my critics, ever eager to attack the messenger rather than evaluate the message, I am not mentally ill. The entire culture is insane. The inmates, who are operating the asylum, believe they are the sane ones.

I’ve been deemed insane since voluntarily leaving my high-pay, low-work position at a major research university. Taking action based on principle, rather than money, seems crazy to people afflicted with a bad case of the dominant paradigm.

In contrast to my critics, I do not benefit from my work in any way. It has cost me thousands of dollars for every dollar I’ve received in return. It has cost me the ability to do what I love. It has cost me everybody I loved from my former life.

I am motivated by evidence, as I wrote two years ago. In presenting the results, in simple language, I make the evidence accessible to the public. For this, I am insulted. My work is disparaged. I am attacked incessantly.

My attempts to respond kindly sometimes fail, although I can and do distinguish between being nice and being kind. In contrast to the mass of humans I encounter, I recognize niceness and kindness are sometimes mutually exclusive.
The essay linked above from two years ago is sufficient. It lacks discussion of my inner teacher, constantly struggling to get out. I’ve written and spoken extensively about that topic. No further elucidation is warranted.

Indeed, no further elucidation is warranted regarding my extensive body of work. None will suffice for those who deny evidence. I will continue my attempts to disengage from discussions operating strictly within an evidence-free zone, recognizing that such a step will nullify nearly every prospective conversation.

Hatred will continue to flow my way not because of evidence, but rather due to the opposite: It is more comfortable to deny evidence than to ponder one’s own death. The processes of cultural “dumbing down” and acceptance appreciation of ignorance and stupidity have led to our demise. How could it have been otherwise?

The usually slightly unhinged Humpty Dumpty gives a reasonaby balanced synopsis.

Paul Beckwith vs. Guy McPherson: The Apocaloptimist vs. the Doomers

Tuesday 21 February 2017

An update in my health

It is time for an update. More adventures with my health.

About ten days ago I woke up with pain in my right gluteal muscle so severe that I have been increasingly unable to sit on a chair other from a few minutes at a time.

I had three acupuncture treatments which very uncharacteristically seemed to exacerbate the situation.  By the time I saw my chiropractor my pain levels were 9/10 and he sent me for an x-ray which indicated “mild to moderate osteoarthritis is seen at both hip joints with mild superior space narrowing but more predictable osteophytes at the joint margins and the femoral necks”.

The pain became so intense in my gluteal muscle that I went to the after-hours and was prescribed me with morphine.

Since then the intensity has gone down a little bit but in its place I have experienced nausea (and at one point), vomiting.

The morphine also makes me drowsy so any thought of seriously following the news and working on my blog is mostly fat from my mind.

Of course, underlying all of this are longstanding conditions, both diagnosed but most not diagnosed that have with with me now for 5-6 years so I have enough empirical knowledge to know that like earth systems its all downhill with my health.

I will write more (and also resume my blog) when I feel a bit more comps mentis and comfortable in my body.

Best wishes,
Robin (Seemorerocks)

It is time for an update. More adventures with my health.

Friday 17 February 2017

Donald Trump’s press conference

BREAKING: Donald Trump’s press conference (analysis)
Alexander Mercouris

President Trump confirms during marathon press conference that his priority before negotiating with the Russians is to shore up his position at home. He has taken a first step towards rooting out his opponents in the intelligence community by asking the Justice Department to instruct the FBI to undertake a criminal investigation of the leaks which brought down General Flynn.
President Trump’s gigantic sprawling 77 minute press conference was – as is always the case with him – a bravura performance that left the media reeling.  Amid all the fire and thunder – which included denunciations of the media and warm and supportive words for General Flynn –  it did however reveal some important things.

Firstly, Trump confirmed that the decision has been made to roll out a new ‘travel ban’ Executive Order next week.

This is a sensible step, clearly made following legal advice from the Justice Department, and follows logically from the Judgment of the appeal court of the ninth circuit which I have analysed previously.

The two most important things to come out of the press conference are however (1) that President Trump still wants a detente with Russia, and is aware that the plotting against his administration is intended to make that more difficult; and (2) that – as I predicted – he has asked the Justice Department to instruct the FBI to carry out a criminal investigation of the leaks which led to General Flynn’s downfall.

President Trump’s comments about Russia were in some ways the most remarkable amongst those he made during his whole press conference, with the President directly accusing his opponents of weakening his position in negotiations with the Russians by giving the Russians grounds to doubt that he is in a strong enough position to make a deal with them

If we could get along with Russia, that’s a positive thing. We have a very talented man, Rex Tillerson, who’s going to be meeting with them shortly and I told him. I said “I know politically it’s probably not good for me.” The greatest thing I could do is shoot that ship that’s 30 miles off shore right out of the water.

Everyone in this country’s going to say “oh, it’s so great.” That’s not great. That’s not great. I would love to be able to get along with Russia. Now, you’ve had a lot of presidents that haven’t taken that tack. Look where we are now. Look where we are now. So, if I can – now, I love to negotiate things, I do it really well, and all that stuff. But – but it’s possible I won’t be able to get along with Putin.

Maybe it is. But I want to just tell you, the false reporting by the media, by you people, the false, horrible, fake reporting makes it much harder to make a deal with Russia. And probably Putin said “you know.” He’s sitting behind his desk and he’s saying “you know, I see what’s going on in the United States, I follow it closely. It’s going to be impossible for President Trump to ever get along with Russia because of all the pressure he’s got with this fake story.” OK?

And that’s a shame because if we could get along with Russia – and by the way, China and Japan and everyone. If we could get along, it would be a positive thing, not a negative thing……

All of those things that you mentioned are very recent, because probably Putin assumes that he’s not going to be able to make a deal with me because it’s politically not popular for me to make a deal. So Hillary Clinton tries a re-set. It failed. They all tried. But I’m different than those people.

(bold italics dded)

Trump’s belief that the Russians doubt that because of the domestic opposition he faces he is capable of delivering on a deal he agrees with them is undoubtedly right.  It is interesting that Trump himself realises it.

It shows that Trump’s priority at the moment is to shore up his position at home before he negotiates with the Russians.  As an experienced deal-maker he clearly does not want to be put in a position where the Russians doubt that he is able to deliver on what he promises, and this explains why negotiations with the Russians have been put back.

This in part also explains the criminal investigation into the leaks he has asked the Justice Department to tell the FBI to undertake.  Clearly he understands that until he has mastered his bureaucracy and proved to the Russians that he is the master of his own house there is no sense in his negotiating with them.  That he has done what he previously hinted at, and has asked the Justice Department to instruct the FBI to investigate the leaks, he has now confirmed
Yes, we’re looking at them very — very, very serious. I’ve gone to all of the folks in charge of the various agencies and we’re — I’ve actually called the Justice Department to look into the leaks. Those are criminal leaks. They’re put out by people either in agencies — I think you’ll see it stopping because now we have our people in. You know, again, we don’t have our people in because we can’t get them approved by the Senate.

(bold italics dded)

Note that the highlighted words all but confirm a point I have repeatedly made: that the reason Trump has been unable to act against the leakers before is because the Department of Justice under Sally Yates has been working against him.

To be clear this is going to be a very different investigation from the various FBI investigations into the nebulous claims of contacts between President Trump’s campaign team and the Russians details of which have been appearing all over the media.  As Trump himself all but says – and as the FBI investigators undertaking them surely know – those investigations are a complete waste of time, and will lead nowhere, because no-one has identified a crime for anyone to investigate.

By contrast in the case of the leaks that brought about the downfall of General Flynn, not only is there no doubt a crime was committed, but The New York Times and CNN know the identity of the perpetrators, and probably enough is already known about them anyway to make it possible to identify them without too much difficulty.

Unlike the investigations into the allegations that are being made against Donald Trump’s campaign team, this investigation therefore stands a very strong chance of success, resulting in arrests, charges and legal action.

I would guess that already by now as I am writing this various people in The New York Times, CNN, the US intelligence community, and former officials of the Obama administration, are busy phoning their lawyers

This is how CNN covers it:

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump gave lengthy news conference Thursday, a last-minute addition to the schedule, where he announced his new selection to lead the Labor Department, Alexander Acosta. His back-and-forth with reporters touched on everything from his critique of the media, his Electoral College margin of victory, the workings of his administration, former national security adviser Michael Flynn's resignation and more.

Here are the most memorable lines:

On how things are going

"This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine."

On leaks, news

"The leaks are real, the news is fake."

On picking his next question

"I want to find a friendly reporter."

On false claims about his Electoral College win's spot in history
"I was given that information, I don't know."

On his own speech

"I'm not ranting and raving, I'm just telling you you're dishonest people."

On Obamacare

"Obamacare, they fill up our alleys with people you wonder how they got there."
On reports about Russia contacts

"You can talk all you want about Russia -- which was all a fabricated fake news ... It is all fake news. It is all fake news."

On Flynn

"I don't think he did anything wrong. If anything, he did something right."

On why Flynn was fired

"The thing is he didn't tell our Vice President properly and then he said he didn't remember... that just wasn't acceptable to me."
On an alternative career

"I'd be a pretty good reporter."

On dealing with Russia

"The greatest thing I could do is shoot that ship that's 30 miles offshore right out of the water. Everyone will say, "Oh, it's so great, it's so great. That's not great."

On nuclear holocaust and Russia

"Nuclear holocaust would be like no other. They are a very powerful nuclear country and so are we. But if we have a good relationship with Russia, believe me, that is as good thing, not a bad thing."
On the travel ban

"We had a very smooth rollout of the travel ban, we had a bad court."

On violence in Chicago

"There are two Chicagos, as you know. One Chicago that is incredible, luxurious and safe. There is another Chicago that is worse than almost any of the places in the Middle East that we talk about and that you talk about on the news."

Thursday 16 February 2017

NZ: Homes evacuated as Christchurch Port Hills fires rage out of control

Last line of Defence

As the Port Hills fires are fought from land and air, police warn they can change direction and move incredibly quickly - people should be ready to evacuate, and not go to the area to look or take photos

What you need to know:

Christchurch Homes have been destroyed by a raging fire which continued to burn overnight, jumping into Victoria Park and spreading to around 1850ha of land
At least 450 homes have been officially evacuated. Many others have self-evacuated
A state of civil emergency has been declared in Christchurch and Selwyn
If you are at all worried or uncomfortable remaining in your home, please evacuate
People are advised to stay away from the hills to allow emergency services access and ensure swift evacuation
Cashmere Primary is closed.

How did it start?

• The first fire — believed to have been caused by an electrical problem — began on Monday, along Early Valley Rd in Lansdowne. By 7pm, crews were battling a second blaze on Marley's Hill, south of the city. Authorities don't know how that blaze began, but believe it started in a car park off Summit Rd.

Evacuation Centres:

1. Halswell Library 2. Selwyn Events Centre in Lincoln 3. Te Hapua Halswell Centre, Halswell Rd 4. Nga Hau e Wha Marae, Pages Rd 5. There's also a Facebook page, Evacuation Housing, for evacuated residents to ask for help, and for people to offer temporary accommodation to those evacuated.

'That house that just caught fire ... that's our house"

16 February, 2017

A man who watched the Port Hills fire raze his family home this morning says he doesn't want to believe the devastation is real.

Henry Reese, 22, and his family were evacuated from the home his parents have lived in for 25 years about 3pm yesterday and saw their neighbours' home burn to the ground about 6pm.

When daylight broke this morning RNZ was there as Mr Reese watched the Worsleys Road house go up in flames at about 7.45am.

Henry Reese, centre, watches his family home burn to the groundHenry Reese, centre, watches his family home burn. Photo: RNZ / Joelle Daly

"That house that just caught fire about 10 mins ago is our house," he said. "It survived the night and then no choppers [were] up there in the morning and obviously a little fire started up and there was no-one there [to protect it]."

"Right now it looks like our house is getting destroyed. It's a bit of a shame, quite a big shame… It's quite a beautiful family house."

On the phone to his family, Mr Reese told them if they arrived quickly they would be able to see the last part of their house before the flames finished it off.

"It's still hard to believe. I barely trust myself that that's our house but it certainly looks that way. I don't want to believe it."

"Even when we were evacuated, we didn't think this would be the last time in this house. Can't believe it," he said.

More Christchurch homes were evacuated this morning as a huge fire burned on the Port Hills, and at least five helicopters with monsoon buckets were dispatched at first light.

The Port Hills fire near Christchurch Adventure Park.The Port Hills fire near Christchurch Adventure Park this morning. Photo: RNZ / Joelle Daly

A local state of emergency was declared by Christchurch City Council and Selwyn District Council yesterday evening.

Overnight, the two main fires merged into one large blaze in excess of 1850 hectares and was growing. Latest reports that it has now spread to the harbour side of Sugarloaf.

Police this morning evacuated homes downhill of the Sign of the Takahe on Dyers Pass Road.

Follow RNZ's live coverage here

Brian Ellwood, who lives on Dyers Pass Rd near the Sign of the Takahe, was told to leave home about 4.30am.

He and his wife put their two cats, three chickens and two children in their cars and parked up at a petrol station.

"All the important things, we got," he said.

Police inspector Derek Erasmus said the force of the fire overnight was frightening.

"Trees exploding, long lines of fire ... across hillsides. Looking at what the fire service were doing, an incredibly difficult and dangerous job for them."

He said 85 extra army and police staff were brought in overnight to help evacuate people.

Helicopters with monsoon buckets and ground crews are tackling a blaze close to a house at the top of Worsleys Road.Helicopters with monsoon buckets and ground crews are tackling a blaze close to a house at the top of Worsleys Road. Photo: RNZ / Joelle Daly

Governors Bay School and Cashmere Primary School are closed. Cashmere principal Gavin Burn said for families with a lot going on the decision was to create certainty, so they know where their children are.

About 100 houses are without electricity power this morning. Lines company Orion said the focus today was on ensuring the power supply to water pumping stations near the fire to keep the water pressure up.

Two major pylon circuits that cross the Port Hills are out but an underground loop cable commissioned in the last year is keeping up the power supply to the city, it said.

Christchurch civil defence controller Dave Adamson told Morning Report the weather forecast was not good for firefighting, with winds expected to develop this afternoon.

If there were shifts in wind direction other areas could be in the line of the fire.
About 450 houses have been evacuated with anything up to 1000 people having left their homes, he said. Parts of Cashmere Hills, Westmorland, Cracroft and Early Valley Road were evacuated last night.

Seven houses are believed to have been damaged by the fire since yesterday, on Early Valley Road and Worsley Road, civil defence said. That was an update to a civil defence report last night that three homes had been destroyed on Worsley Spur in addition to five confirmed destroyed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Flames leap close to a house in the Port Hills.Flames leap close to a house in the Port Hills. Photo: Supplied / Matthew Rankin

The Fire Service said a total of 15 helicopters and two fixed-wing aircraft will be used to fight the fire from the air today, and more than 200 firefighters will be on the ground.

A fire ban has been brought in from South Canterbury to Hurunui as resources are put towards tackling the Port Hills blaze.

Police on the scene as Port Hills fire continues to burn.Police on the scene as the fire burns and evacuations continue. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

PM, Civil Defence Minister, head to Christchurch

Prime Minister Bill English has cancelled his events today to fly to Christchurch.
Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee, who heading to Christchurch, said the situation was "getting pretty serious".

"The requirement to get that fire out is even more pressing than at any point in the last couple of days."

Declaring a state of emergency had been "a little slow" but once it had been done, the civil defence response was okay, he told Morning Report. Firefighters and others are doing great work in dangerous conditions.

"The people out there fighting the fire are very brave people."

Mr Brownlee is expected to meet the mayors of Selwyn and Christchurch this morning and be briefed on the emergency response.

A fire engine speeds through Christchurch as smoke billows from the Port Hills fire.A fire engine speeds through Christchurch as smoke billows from the Port Hills fire. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Paul Harding Brown and his wife Deborah left their Kennedys Bush Road house twice - first on Monday night and again last night - and were waiting at the bottom of the road to be allowed back home.

The fire on Monday night was one hill over from their home. Last night it was 200-300m from the end of the road.

Mr Harding Brown couldn't see his house from where he was waiting this morning. "We just have to wait it out and see what happens."

'It's just gone ballistic'

Helicopter pilot Alan Beck, who was in the air for over 14 hours yesterday, said the conditions were terrible.

"It's just gone ballistic - we're losing house after house," Mr Beck said.
"It really is a controlled disaster at the moment."

There were enough air and ground resources to fight the fire, but crews were struggling to get enough water.

"Down on the flat there's water everywhere but it's not deep enough," he said.

"We're robbing all the swimming pools we can... It's quite a desperate situation here."
Aerial crews stood down at about 8.30pm last night, after smoke and dark made it too dangerous to continue.

Mr Beck said the terrain also made for difficult flying.

"There's transmission wires, power wires, the gondola - we've been working in a nightmare of wires up here so it's been one hell of a job."