From Extinction Radio

Mike Ferrigan and Guy McPherson discuss Taking Action

Excerpt from Extinction Radio, March 29, 2015

7.8 quake in Japan

Japan earthquake: Tremors felt across nation

BBC,

30 May, 2015

A powerful undersea earthquake south of Japan has shaken buildings in Tokyo and been felt across the country.

The US Geological Survey said the 7.8-magnitude earthquake was centred 874km (543 miles) from the Japanese capital, at a depth of more than 660m.

The earthquake struck at 20:30 local time (11:30 GMT). Buildings in the capital swayed for almost a minute as the quake built in intensity.

There are no reports of serious damage. No tsunami alert was issued.

Commuters are stranded at Ikebukuro station as railway service is disrupted after a strong earthquake hit Tokyo area, Japan, 30 May 2015

Crowds of commuters formed around some of the city's busier stations as trains stopped

However, Tokyo's fire department has received calls about people suffering injuries as a result of falls, broadcaster NHK said.

Reuters reports that services on the Shinkansen high speed train line between Tokyo and Osaka were briefly halted by a power cuts.

Some trains in Tokyo also stopped for safety checks, causing crowds of commuters to form around some of the city's busier stations.

Michiko Orita, a resident of the island of Hahajima, near the epicentre, told NHK: "It shook violently. Our Buddhist altar swayed sideways wildly.

"I have not experienced anything like that, so it was so frightening."

Naoki Hirata, of the University of Tokyo's earthquake research centre, said: "This was a very big quake... the shaking was felt over a broad area... fortunately, because it was deep, there is little danger of a tsunami."

Japan is one of the world's most seismically active nations.

In March 2011, a massive 9.0 magnitude quake started a tsunami that left nearly 20,000 people dead in north-eastern Japan and caused nuclear meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant.

Earthquake measuring 8.5 magnitude shakes most of Japan

No reports of deaths or major damage after strong quake strikes deep beneath Earth’s surface off the Ogasawara islands

the Guardian,

30 May, 2015

A powerful 8.5 magnitude earthquake struck near remote Japanese islands and shook most of the country on Saturday evening local time, although it occurred well beneath the earth’s surface and did not trigger a tsunami warning. Several people suffered non-life-threatening injuries, and there were no reports of deaths or major damage.

The quake struck off the Ogasawara islands at a depth of 370 miles (590 km), the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

The quake was powerful enough to rattle most of Japan, from the southern islands of Okinawa to Hokkaido in the north. It caused buildings to sway in Tokyo about 620 miles north of the Ogasawara islands and temporarily disrupted some train services in the city. About 400 houses in Saitama prefecture, just north of the capital, were without power, according to the Tokyo Electric Power Company.

On Sunday morning, a second earthquake of magnitude 6.4 struck off Japan’s Izu islands, which are north of the Ogasawara islands, the US Geological Survey said. It struck at a depth of eight miles with its epicenter 390 miles south-east of Tokyo.

The earthquake was not strong enough to generate a tsunami warning or close enough to the islands to cause any significant damage or injuries, said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the USGS in Golden, Colorado. He said it was considered a separate seismic event and not an aftershock to the magnitude 8.5 quake that had struck hours earlier.

Dutchsinse

The "we are going to die" party

Great message. I hope he doesn't expect any votes

California Senate candidate: “We’re all going to die”

Mike Beitiks

Grist,

29 May, 2015

Have you ever wished there was more talk of climate change in national politics? Have you ever sat through a dull, paint-by-numbers political debate and secretly wished for an over-the-top, maybe even kind of loopy person to show up and take the whole conversation off-script?

If so, then prepare to get excited about the very strange U.S. Senate campaign of  California’s Mike Beitiks.

Barbara Boxer’s decision to step down from her Senate seat in 2016 has brought a host of potential contenders for her seat. (California Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez are believed to be the current frontrunners.) But only one candidate, Beitiks, promises to talk about absolutely nothing but climate change. His campaign photos have captions like, “We’re literally going to die” and “Why aren’t we all screaming?”

As Beitiks puts it:

I run for Senate on a narrow platform. It’s more of a single board, really. If elected, I promise to monomaniacally create and support legislation that combats climate change.

This is not some sort of henny-penny scheme. It’s about realistic assessment and hard work.

Literally nothing else will influence my decision-making and my political dealing. I will use the power of the law to brutalize the most brutal climate offenders and smack some sense into all of us.

It will be a rough job, no doubt, but it can’t be that much rougher than going about my business like an ignorant sham of a man, willfully blind to the fact that my kids will come of age in an apocalyptic wasteland of our own making.

I will be the first to admit that I’m not a perfect candidate. I’m barely qualified, and a survey of my personal history will undoubtedly expose me as an embarrassment to myself in almost every regard that does not include this singular act of rationality.

That last bit doesn’t seem to be quite true. Beitiks may be the only Senate candidate with a topless photo of himself on his website. (I think he’s illustrating the perils of global warming?) But he also has a law degree from Hastings, a well-respected law school in San Francisco. He passed the California bar and generally seems to be a pretty smart guy, with a more wide-ranging interest in public policythan his campaign website would suggest.

That said, his climate policy suggestions, while creative, are going to be a tough sell:

• Take all of the rich people’s money, put it toward fighting climate change. Then, take all of the poor people’s money, put that toward fighting climate change. Basically, nobody gets money anymore until no more climate change.

• Withdraw military from Middle East. Deploy military in people’s driveways to make sure they’re not taking unnecessary trips, driving when they could be walking, etc …

• Everyone has to breathe more shallowly.

•  Let’s just say that if you want to have a child, you have to plant twenty trees, too. If your kid dies you get to chop down one of the trees as a sort of grieving ritual, but the rest stay.

Would I vote for the guy? The trees thing does have a certain poetry to it. At the very least, I’d like to see Beitiks make it to the debates.

The latest from Paul Beckwith on Arctic methane

Arctic methane skyrocketing

I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behaviour will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years.

Here are some of the anomalies Paul talks about

And this, from earlier in the week

2845 ppb methane reading at Barrow, Alaska

I am posting this as a heads-up as the result of a one-off observation of a 2845 ppb  hourly methane reading in Barrow, Alaska.

This is still to be confirmed but such a large reading is more than noteworthy.

While it is not a mean reading what comes to mind is that we had our first readings of 400 ppm of C02 at Mount Lua about a year ago and now it is the average.

When I looked at the graph above thought at first that the graph did not reflect the observation, but on looking a bit more carefully, there is a single reading at that level.

Watch this space and Arctic News for  confirmation and interpretation

NOTE: This has to be treated as very much an interim reading that requires confirmation.

In the mean time while the endless debate about exactly how methane is going to or not going cook our collective goose. It continues to rise and rise.

POSTSCRIPT: From Sam Carana on Facebook

Sam Carana

A very high methane reading was recorded in Barrow, Alaska (hourly average, in situ measurement). The big danger is that the combined impact of feedbacks will accelerate warming in the Arctic to a point where huge amounts of methane will erupt abruptly from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Devastating ongoing drought in Queensland, Australia

3 years of drought in 

Western Queensland

‘The Dust Bowl without end’

75% drought declared - Western Qld 

graziers say droughts are getting worse

See the following footage that portrays 3 years of drought in Ilfracombe in Western Queensland

This is what 3 years of devastating drought looks like in Western QLD. You need to see this... Jeff n Sara - from Ilfracombe the heart of QLD. 

Posted by Higgins Storm Chasing on Friday, 29 May 2015

Dangerous changes in Nepal's mountain landscape seen by Sherpas

Nepal quake: Everest Sherpas warn of mountain risks

Everest Sherpas say they have seen potentially dangerous changes in their landscape after Nepal's 7.8-magnitude earthquake and aftershocks.

Nepal has more than 2,300 glacial lakes

BBC,

29 May, 2015

They say they are living in fear of flooding and tumbling rock and ice because they have witnessed cracks in the ground and in glaciers.

Some glacial lakes have sunk underground with their outlets appearing at new place.

With temperatures increasing and the monsoon on the way, anxiety is rising.

Map showing glacial lakes in Nepal

Glacial lakes at risk of flooding following the 25 April earthquake

Hundreds of people from Sherpa villages fled to higher ground for safety on Monday night after a small glacial lake burst its banks, sweeping away two small bridges and a cowshed. It caused rumours that a major glacial lake had flooded.

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Sherpas are members of an ethnic community that descended from Tibet hundreds of years ago - they use Sherpa as their surnames

A large number tend to be employed in helping climbers in expeditions or guiding trekkers, while others run lodges and tea houses for trekkers and mountaineers

line

Nepal has more than 2,300 glacial lakes and the most feared is Imja.

Government officials say a helicopter survey showed Imja was intact, but they admit a ground study of the area is yet to be done.

Imja Lake - the most feared - is intact, according to government officials

Locals say they are relieved about Imja but uncomfortable about other changes they have observed.

During a field visit this week a team from Sherpa villages found ice and debris in a place they should not have been.

"That was a place where we used to see certain flowers bloom," said Ang Chiri Sherpa, chairman of the Sagarmatha buffer zone users' group.

"But when we went to see what had happened, we saw an unusual, small glacier-like body of ice and soil and rock debris that could potentially fall on our village.

"We have no idea where this potentially dangerous thing came from."

Sherpas have said new outlets have emerged from glacial lakes

With the summer season sending temperatures up and monsoon rains approaching, locals say they are increasingly worried.

"Rising temperatures mean glacier meltdown will accelerate and rains will mean moraines [rock and sediment deposited by a glacier] could become loose," said Tshering Sherpa, an official whose non-governmental organisation manages Everest base camp and the climbing route to the highest peak.

"All these could multiply the risk of outbursts, more so because the earthquake and continued tremors may have made the moraines of glacial lakes already weak.

"And then we have the recent horrifying experience of a lake breaking on Monday, even if it was a small one."

Most locals in the villages in the Everest region are still sleeping outdoors for fear of aftershocks and they say the concern over possible destabilised glacial lakes and glaciers are making them feel worse.

Pasang Sherpa, a lodge owner in Namche said the cries of women and children on Monday night still ring in her ears.

Sherpas have found visible cracks following the earthquake and subsequent aftershocks

"We were all holding torches and running uphill crying and shouting in fear, it was miserable."

Scientists say they have not seen any evidence of risks so far but they also warn that things could change in these shaky times.

"Except for this little event of a lake which somehow released all its waters on Monday, there has been no evidence [of risk] as such," said Walter Immerzeel, assistant professor of physical geography at Ultrecht University in the Netherlands.

"But I think it's a fair concern on the part of Sherpas [because] you have those moraine dams which block those lakes and they can be destabilised by earthquakes and aftershocks."

Dr Immerzeel was in a team that recently produced research on Everest glaciers published this week in The Cryosphere journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

"Avalanches and earthquakes can breach the dams, causing catastrophic floods that can result in river flows 100 times greater in the Kosi basin," the EGU said.

The Kosi basin stretches from the Everest region in the north to the Kosi river that joins the Ganges in India across the border in eastern Nepal.

Although the government and scientists say they have seen no immediate threat, members of the Sherpa community argue say their focus has been limited to the Imja glacial lake.

"So many other glacial lakes have formed in recent years and none of them have been studied, all they talk about is Imja," said Ang Chiri Sherpa.

Rishiram Sharma, head of the government agency responsible for monitoring and taking care of the glaciers and glacial lakes in the Nepalese Himalayas, said his office was trying to co-ordinate with other government agencies for an urgent field study.

"We understand the frustration of the Sherpa community and we will conduct a ground study at the earliest," he said.

The Sherpas from villages right below the glacial lakes and glaciers say they have formed a committee to monitor the threat themselves.

"Our committee will now make a dam to protect a village that was hit by Monday's flood from a glacial lake and then we will prepare a database of all the risky glacial lakes including those around the Khumbu glacier," said Ang Chiri Sherpa.

"We have heard enough of the government and foreign agencies' plans and projects to help us."

Previous material on this. The video below is of special interest

Risk of Nepal Glacial Lake Outburst

Nouveau Eco,

1 May, 2015

At least 10,000 people live directly in the path of the three very unstable glacial lakes, Imja Tsho, Thulagi and Tsho Rolpa.  These areas include the dozens of towns on the main trekking route to Mt Everest Base Camp.  These lakes are extremely vulnerable to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) from aftershocks following the 7.8 Ricther earthquake on Saturday, 25 April 2015.

GLOFs occur when earth structures damming large glacial lakes collapse.  Formed out of deposited rocks and mud these dams are inherently unstable and can be ruptured by a single landslide or avalanche into the lake.  Past floods have obliterated small hydro electric plants in their path.  In 1980 a GLOF in north eastern Nepal devastated villages over 70km downstream.

The UN and World Bank have a number of development projects in place to improve warning systems about GLOFs, but they have not been adequately successful.  Most towns have limited awareness of these risks and few (if any) have evacuation plans.  Due to lack of resources many of the monitoring systems that did exist have degraded.  The glacier lakes themselves serve as major tourist attractions, so locals’ incomes rely on remaining in endangered areas.  In fact, as visitor numbers to Mt Everest have increased significantly over the past ten years, the local population living the the path of the Imja glacier lake has swelled.

Local District Disaster Relief Committees generally have very little knowledge about climate change or GLOF risk management.  There is also insufficient coordination between different agencies for systematic information sharing on GLOF risk management and no efficient mechanism for communicating GLOF warnings effectively. UNDP Report September 2012

The natural moraine banks that form the dam for these lakes are unstable and are vulnerable to earthquakes.  This instability is exacerbated by the fact that the volume of the glacial lakes has been increasing due to climate change.

Government and disaster management authorities have limited understanding and experience of managing growing climate risks, including current variability and the projected impacts of climate change, that are increasing the range and magnitude of disasters that Nepal is having to cope with UNDP Report September 2012

As these lakes only began forming in the late 1950s, they were not a threat when Nepal last experienced major earthquakes in the 1930s.  Given the volume of water and steep terrain, World Bank flood models predict walls of water and debris up to 10 metres high, even 100km from the source.  There is also a chain reaction risk where a comparably small lake, situated above larger lake, causes a sudden surge of water that then bursts the larger lake’s moraine dam.

Nouveau Eco created this risk map (above) because we want people in this zone, both local and international first responders, to be made aware of the risks facing them so that they can take steps to prevent further disaster in this already devastated region.

This same problem was identified in this excellent documentary

Nepal - I Have Seen the Earth Change

Solukhumbu is one of the 75 districts in Nepal. It gathers most of the 3300 glaciers and 2300 artic lakes of the country. Inhabitants witness huge climatic changes in the Everest area. The most striking being the fast glacier recession, which have given birth to new lakes where there was only ice and snow. Those lakes are a danger for the population, natural bombs, ready to explode. If the water overflows, it will sweep away inhabitants, bridges, houses and villages.

Not only that, but this

Monsoon rains increase risks of landslides in Nepal

Nepal needs to act quickly to reduce the destruction of landslides in earthquake-affected areas before the monsoon rains arrive, warn scientists

the Third Pole,

8 May, 2015

Nepal needs to urgently assess the risks from existing and potential landslides in earthquake affected areas before the monsoon rains come, say scientists who have produced a detailed map of landslide risks using satellite data.

The report released by scientists at the British Geological Survey, Durham University and University of East Anglia this week says: “The need to plan measures to mitigate landslide deaths and disruption in the forthcoming monsoon season must remain a priority. Many more damaging landslides may occur in the 2015 monsoon, likely to start in late June, than would be expected if a major earthquake had not occurred.”

The scientists identified at least six major landslides blocking valleys in areas hit by the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on 25 April. But the team says more major landslides may be found as more satellite imagery becomes available (large areas of the region are still obscured by cloud and dust).

The risks of landslides will “escalate significantly” as the monsoon rains begin, the report added. The monsoon that reaches Nepal in second week of June and withdraws in September brings almost 80% of the country’s total annual rainfall.

Fresh landslides will threaten already-affected areas and wash sediment downstream onto valley floors and floodplains.

Major landslides are limited to a zone that runs east-west almost parallel to the transition between the lesser and High Himalaya near the China-Nepal border. 

This zone includes parts of the most affected districts –Gorkha, Dhading, Nuwakot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchwok, Dolakha, Ramechhap and Kavre, where most of the fatalities due to the earthquake occurred.   Major roads to Tibet in the north and India in the south have also been blocked.

A team led by the University of Michigan geomorphologist Marin Clark has also identified tens of thousands of locations at risk of mudslides and landslides in the mountainous area along the Nepal-Tibet border, north of Kathmandu and west of Mount Everest.

Image credit: Dam Hazard ~ University of Michigan

According to satellite images, avalanches and landslides have blocked the upper reaches of Buri Gandhaki river in Gorkha district, the Trishuli river near Thansing and the Sunkoshi river near  Sarsunkharka.

No local warning systems

Satellite images provided by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on their website are consistent with Clark’s assessment.

But this information is not reaching local people. “The district administration has not informed us about the river blockages. People are more concerned about procuring plastic sheets right now,” Kapil Koirala, a resident of Dhulikhel, which lies on the Arniko highway to Tibet, told thethirdpole.net. People are scared about the floods and want to move to safer districts but they don’t know which places are safer, he said.

“The cloud cover has made it difficult for us to get accurate satellite pictures and travelling to the areas where landslides have occurred is not possible right now,” said Narendra Raj Khanal of ICIMOD. “I have asked for water discharge data and once I have this I will be in a better position to say how serious the river blockages could be,” he said.

In 2014 flash floods in Sindhupalchowk district on the Nepal-China border killed 156 people, after a massive landslide blocked the Sunkoshi River