Saturday, 20 October 2018

Large methane emissions in the Arctic- 10/19/2018

Bizarre Clouds, Warm Air Over the Poles & Methane Update with Margo (Oct. 19, 2018)

Margo takes a look at NASA Worldview, Climate Reanalyzer and CAMS to point out the latest weirdness. Time is short - get your spiritual houses in order. God bless everyone.
Power to the Truth!

Here is the latest data available

The latest data on methane emissions in Siberia. That’s about 2000 ppb in Eastern Siberia and the Arctic basin 

Here is a movie of the last few days

Record Number Of Israeli Tanks Amassed On Gaza Border

Major trouble in Gaza while the world's attention is fixed elsewhere.
"All-Out War" Coming: Record Number Of Israeli Tanks Amassed On Gaza Border

19 October, 2018

After months of violence and widespread protests along the Israeli-Gaza border fence, Israeli is quickly ramping up its military presence with a show of force a day after launching deadly airstrikes on Gaza in response to what officials say were two rockets fired from the strip earlier this week.  

Reuters has reported some 60 Israeli tanks and armored personnel carriers now stationed at a deployment area along the border as of Thursdaywhich is the largest reported mustering of forces since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas.

On Thursday a Reuters photographer counted some 60 tanks and armored troop carriers at a deployment area near the Gaza Strip. Via Reuters)​​​​​
Special UN envoy for the Middle East, Nickolay Mladenov, told the UN Security Council on Thursday that "we remain on the brink of another potentially devastating conflict, a conflict that nobody claims to want, but a conflict that needs much more than just words to prevent".

One of the rockets launched Wednesday reportedly landed in the sea, however, Israeli officials said it came dangerously close to densely populated Tel Aviv. Hamas, for its part, denied responsibility for the rocket launches and said it would investigate. 

Meanwhile Israel retaliated in Wednesday airstrikes on Gaza, which reportedly killed at least one Palestinian while injuring several more. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further convened his security cabinet on the same day of the Gaza rocket launches and promised to take "very strong action" if such attacks continued.

Israel largest armor deployment since the 2014 war was documented by Reuters this week. 
On Tuesday Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman was quoted as saying, "We must land a strong blow against Hamas. That's the only way to lower the level of violence to zero or close to zero." He said that Israel's response must be harsh "even at a price of moving to a wide-scale confrontation".

Israeli press reports at the end of this week are consistently warning that "Hamas and Israel are one step closer to all-out war" as Israeli tanks and troops continue to muster at the border. 

An Egyptian delegation is reportedly in contact with both sides and are trying to prevent a major conflict from erupting. One Palestinian official involved in talks with the Egyptians told Reuters"The situation is delicate. No one wants a war."

However, the official described Gaza as at a breaking point: "Palestinian factions are demanding an end to the Israeli blockade that strangled life and business in Gaza," he said. 

UN envoy Mladenov also confirmed before the UN that Gaza's economy is in free fall, with unemployment at a stunning 53% and 70% of Palestinian youth jobless (according to the World Bank), and further the coastal strip of 2 million people is under near total Israeli blockade. "Gaza is imploding. This is not hyperbole. 

This is not alarmism. It is a reality," Mladenov told the UN Security Council.
"Barring substantial steps to reverse the current course, this precarious sense of calm is doomed to give way under the mounting pressure. It is already beginning to fray," he added. 

It appears tensions could explode into yet another round of war starting as early as this weekend. Given the threats of Israeli officials this week, it could slide into the bloodiest campaign in years. 

Israel deploys Tanks, Armor, Seals Gaza with Cement Blocks

19 October, 2018
Invasion of the Gaza Strip by Israeli Defense Forces is now deemed IMMINENT.
The Israeli Security Cabinet met Wednesday for many hours and when the meeting ended, even my former colleagues who provide me with Covert Intelligence could not get information.   That has now changed.
The Israeli Cabinet has approved a change in the "Rules of Engagement" for the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) pertaining to the weekly riots and arson/missile attacks emanating from Gaza.  The new policy: ZERO TOLERANCE.

Israel deploying "many" tanks

In support of the planned response, Israel is deploying Tanks and Armored Personnel Carriers (APC's) to the area surrounding the Gaza Strip. A photographer reports seeing at least 60 IDF tanks and APC’s gathered at one location on the Gaza border

The video below shows to extent to which heavy armor has been built-up. One does not move this type of equipment into the field unless one intends to use it IMMINENTLY.

The area around the Gaza Strip has now been declared a "Closed Military Zone" and is being sealed-off with large cement blocks.

New batteries of Iron Dome missile Defense systems are being hastily installed in many cities in central Israel as seen in the photo below:

There is widespread expectation by the civilian population of vast missile barrages coming from Gaza WITHIN HOURS of the publication of this story.

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman presented a plan to initiate a harsh response against Hamas. At the same time, the IDF, with the encouragement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, presented another plan whereby response would be according to what was happening on the ground and only if the terrorist organizations tried to attack Israel.

Either way, events involving Israel and the Gaza Strip are believed to be "going hot" within HOURS.

All Egyptian Flags flown by homes or businesses inside Gaza, have suddenly been taken down. Not known why.

Arab media in Gaza is publicly calling for all Gazans to participate in protests Friday.

Israel is 7 hours ahead of the US east coast, and events are expected to kick-off after daily prayers later today.

Young people inside Gaza have been conducting what they call "night diversion" by burning tires, firing lasers in an effort to blind Israeli troops from seeing anything taking place inside Gaza.


Ben Gurion Airport has been ORDERED to change landing routes due to situation:

My former colleagues in the Intelligence Community have directly told me to "The people in Gaza are not backing down.  The Israelis are not backing down.  Today is the day.  Expect war to break out later today."

These men do not generally talk this way.  For them to say those words to me is an incredible thing.  
Take them at their word.



Hamas denies the reports that rioters are being told to stay away from the Gaza border fence. They said the border fence will 'burn' today. 
The protests officially started at 3:30 PM Israel local time (7 hours ahead of US east coast) so things are already beginning there as this update appears in the USA. Reports that 10,000 rioters are already arriving towards the Gaza border fence
Hamas and Islamic Jihad have reportedly raised their alert status to the "third degree"
 ***** First death being reported on the Gaza border near Khan Younis.*****
Egyptian officials are urging Hamas to immediately stop all the border marches. 
IDF is setting up mobile bomb shelters near Gaza.
 Large amount of explosives: IEDs, Gernades being thrown at Israeli soldiers on the Gaza border. Explosions are heard constantly.
UPDATE 11:29 AM EDT --
Over 15,000 currently rioting on the Gaza border. Over 100 grenades and IED’s have been thrown so far. Multiple infiltrations and damage to the security fence, with some IDF equipment stolen from a military position and an IDF vehicle damaged by an IED.

The BLOB is back off the coast of Alaska

Persistent Alaska warmth this fall has brought back ‘the blob.’ If it lasts, it could mean a wild winter in the Lower 48

19 October, 2018

Throughout early fall, Alaska has been oddly warm and pleasant. The cause of the freakishly nice weather has been massive high pressure anchored over and around the state. One of the strongest on record for fall, this sprawling dome of warm air has helped keep the usual transition to cold stunted.

Since days are still long in early fall across Alaska, the sunny September (and into October) skies have also allowed ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific to rise significantly, as well. This has led to a return pool of abnormally warm ocean water in the Northeast Pacific known as “the blob," and just in time for Halloween!
But scientists are unsure whether the blob will remain a fixture or fade away. If it manages to linger into the winter, the consequences for the Lower 48 could be profound.

Although the blob is focused over the Northeast Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska, it has played a substantial role in the development of extreme weather patterns over the Lower 48 when it has formed in the past. Generally, it has been linked to abnormally warm and dry conditions in the West, and cold and stormy conditions in the East.
When the blob is in place, the jet stream, which both divides warm and cold air and acts as super highway for storms, tends to veer north over the top of the blob. This results in a big ridge of high pressure forming over western North America, which brings mild weather and blocks storms.
The blob’s presence was linked to the persistence and intensity of the drought in California from 2013 to 2015. It also ″was blamed for contributing to 2015 being the hottest year on record in Seattle,” according to Scott Sistek, a meteorologist with KOMO in Seattle.

As the cold air displaced by the blob has to go somewhere, it then often crashes south in the East. Remember the polar vortex intrusions during the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015? The blob played a role.
So what will happen to the current iteration of the blob?
After Alaska’s stunningly sunny September, warmer-than-normal conditions have persisted into October, despite some change in the pattern, which is now delivering more in the way of clouds and precipitation.
While the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting warmer-than-normal conditions for Alaska the rest of the month, the mega-high-pressure zone feeding the blob is expected to continue to shift and break down a bit. In its wake, a stormier pattern may take over, at least for a time. This would allow the waters where the blob currently resides to begin to mix better, perhaps ultimately diminishing or even destroying it.

How long will BLOB Jr. last? At least as long as we have persistent high pressure over the north Pacific," wrote Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington, in a blog post. At this point, "it looks like things are evolving to a pattern with less high pressure offshore, so the BLOB should weaken.”

Over the next week, weather modeling indicates high pressure will move east into Canada as low pressure moves into the region where the blob is hanging out. (Tropical Tidbits)
According to Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist in Alaska, even if high pressure persists, it may turn into a source of cold air rather than warmth given Alaska’s waning sunlight — which would weaken the blob.
Ultimately, it’s hard to say much conclusively about the blob’s fate.
The blob last showed up around this time in 2016. Back then, there was some thinking that it may lead to a new round of winter cold outbreaks in the East. That didn’t really happen, as the blob dissipated.
Blob or not, the damage has been done in Alaska, where drought persists in the coastal rain forest of the southeast, and it’s been an extraordinarily peculiar start to the cold season.
The onset of autumn in Alaska — the wettest part of the year for south-central and southeast Alaska — has been slow to arrive by four weeks or so,” said Dave Snider of the National Weather Service forecast office in Anchorage.
Anchorage has yet to witness a freeze. Although the city could see its first freeze in about a week, that will be about 10 days to two weeks past the old record for latest, a substantial gap.
Nome should have 20 freezes by now. This year just one," Brettschneider said. "Anchorage should have 20 days with temperatures below 38 degrees. This year, zero. So it’s not just the lack of a freeze, it’s that everything about the air mass is exceptional and persistent.”
Another oddity? Fairbanks has yet to see any snow so far this season, the latest on record. But history shows that the lack of snow so far means little with respect to what winter will bring.

Okay : If you're bummed that it's Oct 16th, raining and 45F, take heart: it will yet snow. Past century there's no significant correlation between snowfall in September/October and how much falls the rest of the winter.
Much like the future of the blob, the future of winter in Alaska is very much to be determined.
Brettschneider sees the potential for a perfect confluence of conditions to keep the warmth coming. Since September turned to October, a dominant feature has been a low pressure area in the Bering Sea. This is a conduit for driving relatively mild Pacific Ocean air into the state.
It’s still quite early in the cold season, even in the snowy north. For now, it’s a waiting game. Waiting for summer to finally end, and waiting to see what winter might bring. It won’t only have implications for Alaska, but for all of us

Q on "the plan"

Q - We Are The Plan

Clouds off the coast of the US

Strange cloud formations off the East Coast of the United States

Margo caught the following close-up of clouds off the coast of the Untied States.

These photos are from today

Russia is divesting itself of American debt

Russian Share In U.S. Debt Is Getting Close To Zero

18 October, 2018

Russian investments in US securities as of August 2018 have fallen to just $14 billion from $180 billion back in 2011. From one of the top holders of the US debt, Moscow became the 54th largest holder.

Russia started actively dropping its share in the US dept earlier in 2018. This “accidentially” took place amid the growth of tensions between Washington and Moscow.

China and Japan, which are currently the largest investors in US debt, have also cut their holdings. The Chinese share dropped to $1.165 trillion in August from $1.171 trillion in July. This was the third consecutive month of declines.

At the same time, The Japanese share is the lowest since October 2011 – $1.029 trillion in August.

Turkey and India are also activing in the same direction. Turkey has dropped out of the top-30 list of holders of the US debt, while India has been liquidating its investment for five consecutive months to $140 billion in August.

Putin's speech at Valdai

Putin hails the fall of United States as a moral leader around the globe in annual speech

18 October, 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his annual address to hail the end of the United States’ influence on the world.

According to a write-up from the Financial Times, Putin told his country “luckily this monopoly is disappearing. It’s almost done.”

Putin went on to claim that Russia isn’t creating any problems for anyone and he has done his part to help create a dialogue with President Donald Trump. When Russia annexed Crimea the US began to enact repercussions on the country, but since Trump’s administration, Russia has had more flexibility to begin their own effort to influence the world.

Empires often think they can make some little mistakes,” Putin said. ”Because they’re so powerful. But when the number of these mistakes keeps growing, it reaches a level they cannot sustain.”
A country can get the sense from impunity that you can do anything,” he continued in a speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club at a ski resort near Sochi. “This is the result of the monopoly from a unipolar world . . . Luckily this monopoly is disappearing. It’s almost done.”
Read the full report at the Financial Times.

James Howard KUnstler on the Long Emergency

Jim Kunstler: Welcome To The Long Emergency

19 October, 2018

Feeling The Heat Yet?


The loyal opposition is the party out-of-power in a polity that stands divided into two factions - assuming the polity can still function as such, which, apparently, it no longer can. Historically in the USA, this used to allow for the tempered regulation of changing conditions during two hundred years of a rapidly evolving techno-industrial economy that pumps out more goodies year after year while the population grows and grows.

Much of America, political leaders especially, assume that this arc of growing goodies and more people will just keep trending up forever. They are just plain mistaken about that.

Rather, the whole industrialized, wired-up world is rolling over into the greatest contraction ever witnessed. The only thing that’s postponed the recognition of this reality is the profligate borrowing of money, or shall we say “money” - data entries that pretend to represent secure wealth.

This amounts to borrowing from the future to pay for how you live today. Of course, the act of borrowing is based on the supposition that there will enough future productive activity to allow you to pay back your borrowings with interest. This is obviously not the case now, in the face of epochal contraction, especially of affordable energy to keep things running hot.

Thus, the US has decided to get through the approaching winter by setting its house on fire. The two political parties alternately in charge of things are driving around the burning house, stopping at intervals to run Chinese Fire Drills. 

We call these “elections.” Both parties pretend that the burning house is not a problem. Mr. Trump, aka the Golden Golem of Greatness, has taken “ownership” of the rising temperature in the burning house. “Hey, at least you’re not freezing now.” He and his party have been piling all the furniture inside the house on the fire, to keep the heat up, rather heedless that flames are starting to shoot out of the attic.
The other party has no quibble with burning down house. In fact, this has been the Democratic Party’s sovereign remedy for problems since the War in Vietnam, when it was explicit policy to burn down villages in order to save them. Seemed to work, until it didn’t - and then we just tried to forget about the whole sorry exercise. It still haunts them, though. So these days they’ve decided to destroy the culture that abided inside the burning house. They’re taking down the draperies and collecting all the clothing and Tchotchkes and framed photographs of loved ones, and piling them on top of the burning furniture, doing their bit to keep the heat up.
You might infer from all this that no matter whatever else the Republican and Democratic parties might do now is not going to prevent the house from burning down. In a month, or six months, or eighteen months, they will be left standing stunned in the ashes. How’d this happen!?! Even the clown cars they were riding around in will be smoldering wrecks. And then the rest of the people of this land can sift through ruins, seeking a few trinkets or useful tools with some remaining value. These people will be entitled to call themselves “survivors.” And they will act like survivors should act: by earnestly assessing how the house happened to burn down, and using what few assets and resources they still have at hand to shelter-in-place, while they draw up plans for a more sensible house.
If there was a true loyal opposition in this land, they would have called the fire department long ago. But they were too busy texting out their contrived grievances and sending cute Instagrams of each other in pussy hats to friends and allies while the flames of the burning house reflected off the screens of their iPhones. The vaunted technology did not save the day. It only stole their attention.

If it happens that the Democrats lose the midterm elections a few weeks ahead, they will jump up and down and holler that the elections were stolen from them, that somebody meddled and colluded to deprive them of victory, and that will amount to throwing just enough gasoline on the still-burning house for one final glorious burst of heat and flame before the rafters crash through the floor.

Welcome to the Long Emergency.