Wednesday, 24 April 2019

The latest from Paul Beckwith



Arctic Emissions of Nitrous Oxide GHG a Dozen Times Worse Than Expected. OOPS.

Part one



Part two




Abrupt Climate System Risks from Hydrogen Sulphide Ocean Outgassing

Part one



Part two

Greta Thunberg talks to EU sociopaths


Not Greta of course, but I am willing to bet that the levels of hypocrisy among the audience will have been EPIC



Greta Thunberg warns: "Time to panic!



Swedish teenage environmental activist Greta Thunberg says time is running out to halt climate change and she’s urging European politicians “to panic.”

Thunberg told Members of European Parliament today: “I want you to act as if the house is on fire.”

She said that “if our house was falling apart you wouldn’t hold three emergency Brexit summits and no emergency summit regarding the breakdown of the climate and environment.”

During a speech met with a standing ovation, Thunberg fought back tears as she warned about rapid species extinctions, soil erosion, deforestation and the pollution of oceans.

In a reference to the international funding effort launched to rebuild the fire-ravaged Notre Dame cathedral in Paris, she urged the lawmakers to use “cathedral thinking” to tackle climate change.

The modern environmental movement is all about saving the industrial economy

I have not paid so much attention to Derrick Jensen in the last 2 years for my own, personal reasons but I am posting this because he expresses a key point so clearly

Derrick Jensen: We need to get back to the traditional environmental movement

That was about saving the Living Planet around us; the modern movement is around saving industrial civilisation

Gary Null's Earth Day Special



It has been some time since I have been able to keep abreast with still (relatively) slow-moving freight train of global heating and the sixth mass extinction.

The interview with Guy is between 54'30" and 1 hr 40'

Guy McPherson interviewed by Gary Null on Earth Day




This essay is updated periodically to accommodate recent evidence. It was last updated 29 March 2019.

My December 2018 essay, “Ocean Deoxygenation as an Indicator of Abrupt Climate Change,” provides an overview of the marine response to abrupt climate change. It is linked here.
Most evolving lineages, human or otherwise, when threatened with extinction, don’t do anything special to avoid it

 ~ George C. Williams
 
American evolutionary biologist George C. Williams died in September 2010 at the age of 83 years. I doubt he knew we were facing our own imminent extinction.
By the time Williams died, I’d been sounding the alarm in this space for three years. I was not alone. The warnings I’ll mention in this short essay were hardly the first ones about climate catastrophe likely to result from burning fossil fuels. A little time with your favorite online search engine will take you to George Perkins Marsh sounding the alarm in 1847, Svente Arrhenius’s relevant journal article in 1896, and young versions of Al Gore, Carl Sagan, and James Hansen testifying before the United States Congress in the 1980s. There is more, of course, all ignored for a few dollars in a few pockets.
The projected rate of climate change based on IPCC-style gradualism outstrips the adaptive response of vertebrates by a factor of 10,000 times. Closer to home Homo sapiensmammals cannot evolve fast enough to escape the current extinction crisis. Humans are vertebrate mammals. To believe that our species can avoid extinction, even as non-human vertebrates and non-human mammals disappear, is classic human hubris wrapped in a warm blanket of myth-based human supremacy. The evidence indicates humans will join the annihilation of “all life on earth,” as reported in the journal literature on 13 November 2018. After all, humans are alive (some more than others). We depend greatly upon invertebrates for our continued existence, yet an “insect apocalypse” is under way, as reported in a review paper in the April 2019 issue of Biological Conservation.
The catastrophic, uncontrolled meltdown of the world’s nuclear power facilities is sufficient but not necessary for the near-term loss of life on Earth. “Only” abrupt climate change is necessary to rid Earth of all life.
The response to these warnings, throughout history? Shift the baseline. Ignore the abundant science. Throw caution to the wind. And, for the IPCC, retain a remarkably conservative approach (according to the remarkably conservative peer-reviewed literature).
The corporate media, governments, and most climate scientists continue to adhere to the 2 C target proposed by economist William Nordhaus in 1977: “If there were global temperatures more than 2C or 3C above the current average temperature, this would take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years.”
We know quite a bit more about climate science than we did in 1977. And real scientists knew, even way back then, that economists were not to be treated as scientists. It’s small wonder Nordhaus shared the politically motivated Nobel Prize in Economics earlier this year. I wouldn’t have been surprised had he been given the Nobel Peace Prize, thus joining fellow partners-in-crime specialists-in-genocide Henry Kissinger and Barack Obama.
Earth is at least 1.73 C above the 1750 baseline marking the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. This global-average temperature is the highest ever with Homo sapiens present, according to a 2017 paper in Earth System Dynamics by James Hansen and colleagues. In other words, our species has never experienced a hotter Earth than the one currently driving the ongoing refugee crisis as habitat for humans disappears. And we’re not quite at the 2 C limit (sic) established by Nordhaus.
According to an overview published by European Strategy and Policy Analysis System: “An increase of 1.5 degrees is the maximum the planet can tolerate; should temperatures increase further … we will face even more droughts, floods, extreme heat and poverty … and at worst, the extinction of humankind altogether.” In other words, according to this major synthesis, we’ve passed the point beyond which human extinction might occur.
In response to the ever-accelerating crisis known as abrupt climate change, the conventional approach is to shift the baseline. Instead of admitting the planet is nearly 2 C above the 1750 baseline, governments and many scientists have determined the baseline is actually 1981-2010, or later. Adherence to the Precautionary Principle is clearly unfashionable.
We’ve known for decades that the 2 C number set in stone by Nordhaus is dangerous. We were ”running out of time” to deal with greenhouse gases in 1965, according to the chief of the American Petroleum Institute. Fourteen years later, it was Edward Teller informing Big Oil they needed to changeAl Gore and Carl Sagan testified to Congress in 1985 that we must act now on climate change. In late June 1989 Noel Brown, the director of the New York office of the United Nations Environment Program indicated we had only until 2000 to avoid catastrophic climate change. About 16 months after Brown’s warning, the United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases set 1 C as the absolute upper limit in October 1990. Climate speaker and writer David Spratt said 0.5 C was the upper limit in October 2014.
It was probably too late to reverse abrupt, irreversible climate change in 1977 when Nordhaus shared his genocidal opinion. It certainly was too late to change course in 1989. And comforting words aside, we haven’t done anything to prevent our own extinction in the wake of warnings distant or near.
In October 2018, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicated we have until 2030 to hold global-average temperature at 1.5 C above the ever-shifting baseline. Yes, that’s correct: The United Nations is recommending a global-average temperature well below the current temperature as a “target.”
It gets worse, of course: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres says we have until 2020 to turn this ship around. In early October 2018, according to the Guardian, “the next three months are crucial for the future of the planet.” Of course, nothing of significance was done at the planetary level because nothing of significance could be done. The only known means by which humans can change the global-average temperature in any direction between now and 2020 is the reduction of industrial activity, which will alleviate the aerosol masking effect and therefore drive the global-average much higher very quickly. The impact of the aerosol masking effect has been greatly underestimated, as pointed out in a 17 January 2019 article in Science. As pointed out by the author of the paper in Science on 22 January 2019: “Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.” This Catch-22 of abrupt climate change, termed the McPherson Paradox, takes us in the wrong direction regardless of the direction of industrial activity if we are interested in maintaining habitat for vertebrates and mammals on Earth. Loss of the aerosol masking effect means loss of habitat for human animals, with human extinction soon to follow.
It gets unimaginably worse by the day, of course. Recent information from the refereed journal literature finally caught up to me in concluding the Sixth Mass Extinction could annihilate all life on Earth. A paper in Scientific Reports draws this conclusion based upon the rate of environmental change, consistent with my own conclusions. Five-and-a-half years after I described the horrors of interacting factors, a paper in the 21 December 2018 issue of Science concludes such interactions are tremendously important. Following up on 10 January 2019, a paper in the same publication points to ocean temperatures increasing much faster than expected, thereby ensuring 2018 as the year with the warmest oceans ever recorded on Earth. As one result, Antarctica is losing ice mass at six times the rate of 40 years ago, according to a paper in the 14 January 2019 issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Finally, a paper in Geosciences dated 23 November 2018 indicates up to 8516 ppm by volume in the Yamal region of Siberia, indicating the great potential for terrestrial permafrost to warm the planet in the near future. In other words, it is not only the 50-Gt burst of methane described by Shakhova and colleagues as “highly possible for abrupt release at any time” in 2008 that poses an existential threat based on methane alone. As one who loves life, my gratification from these most conservative of sources is overwhelmed by my sadness at the loss.
To put it simply, our fate as a species is sealed. We’re headed for extinction in the very near term despite warnings dating more than 150 years. It’s a tragic tale. And, as foretold by evolutionary biologist George C. Williams, our species hardly made a squeak as the hammer dropped.


Guy's extended essay, "Climate-Change Summary and Update", which he stopped updating in 2016 is HERE

Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Electric Vehicles Emit More CO2 Than Diesel Cars

Shock: Electric Vehicles Emit More CO2 Than Diesel Cars

Wikimedia CommonsTechnocracy22 April, 2019
image_pdfimage_print
Electric vehicles may be cool (when their battery packs are not on fire) but they are more dangerous to the environment than diesel counterparts. All the eco-nuts who think they are saving the world by driving EVs are totally deceived by marketing propaganda. ⁃ TN Editor
Electric vehicles in Germany account for more CO2 emissions than diesel ones, according to a study by German scientists.
When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix – in which coal still plays an important role – are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich.
Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy. A Tesla Model 3 battery, for example, represents between 11 and 15 tonnes of CO2. Given a lifetime of 10 years and an annual travel distance of 15,000 kilometres, this translates into 73 to 98 grams of CO2 per kilometre, scientists Christoph Buchal, Hans-Dieter Karl and Hans-Werner Sinn noted in their study.
What’s wrong with this picture? (Image: Mimikama.at)
The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say.
When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example.
The German researchers therefore take issue with the fact that European officials view electric vehicles as zero-emission ones. They note further that the EU target of 59 grams of CO2 per km by 2030 corresponds to a “technically unrealistic” consumption of 2.2 litres of diesel or 2.6 litres of gas per 100 kms.

Sri Lankan minister tweets intel letter from 10 days before bombings

Why was warning ignored?’ Sri Lankan minister tweets intel letter from 10 days before bombings
‘Why was warning ignored?’ Sri Lankan minister tweets intel letter from 10 days before bombings
RT,
21 April, 2019

A letter warning of imminent terrorist attacks and sent to security forces 10 days prior to the Easter Sunday bombing spree in Sri Lanka has been made public, raising questions as to whether law enforcement failed to act on it.
On April 11, Sri Lanka’s intelligence had issued a nationwide alert of possible suicide attacks being planned against Catholic Churches and potentially the Indian High Commission in Colombo by an extremist Islamist organization called the National Thowheed Jamath.
“Some intelligence officers were aware of this incidence. Therefore there was a delay in action,” cabinet member and Minister of Telecommunication, Digital Infrastructure Facilities, Foreign Employment and Sports, Harin Fernando said, showing the warning letter on Twitter.
Serious action needs to be taken as to why this warning was ignored.
At least 207 people were killed, including dozens of foreigners, and over 450 are injured in a series of coordinated suicide attacks on churches and hotels in the country. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the atrocities.

‘Intelligence failure’: Sri Lankan govt too focused on past, not ready for new threats – analysts

Suicide bomber caught in CCTV footage

I would love to resume reporting on other things - it may be a forlorn hope.

Eerie footage emerges of suspected Sri Lankan suicide bomber entering church before explosion

23 April, 2019

Footage from just before one of the Sri Lanka bomb blasts shows the eerie moment one of the suspected bombers makes his way into a church.
On Sunday, 290 people were killed in a series of explosions across Sri Lanka, including in the St Sebastian's Church in Negombo, north of Colombo.
CCTV vision from just prior to the explosion shows a man wearing backpack making his way through crowds outside of the church.
Indian channel TV9 reports the man is one of the suicide bombers, who are suspected to be a part of the extremist Muslim group National Thowheed Jamath.
Links to other groups, like Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, have not been ruled out by local authorities.
The series of explosions happened across the country, with several hotels - the Shangri-La, the Kingsbury, the Cinnamon Grand and the Tropical Inn - targeted.
The manager of the Cinnamon Grand hotel in Colombo told AFP that one of the alleged suicide bombers checked into the hotel the night before the attack and detonated the blast as he was served breakfast.
Emergency powers have been invoked, allowing police and military to detain and interrogate suspects without court orders.
Among those killed in the blasts were three children of ASOS billionaire Anders Holch Povlsen.
Newshub.

Suspicious Package Found at Railway Station in Sri Lanka - Reports
23 April, 2019

According to the Sri Lankan news outlet Ada Derana, a suspicious package has been discovered at Kollupitiya Railway Station in Colombo.
A bomb disposal unit has been deployed to the site of incident, according to local media reports.
The suspicious package was discovered in one of the ladies' compartments of a Puttalam-Mount Lavinia train, according to reports.
Police have confirmed that nothing suspicious was found in the parcel at Kollupitiya Railway Station.
On Sunday, the country was shaken by a series of coordinated attacks, which killed at least 310 people and left another 500 injured. These are the worst attacks in the country's modern history since the end of the 25-year-old civil war.
Colombo has launched a massive security operation in the wake of the tragedy. As of Monday, at least 24 people were detained in connection with the attacks.


Meet Moulvi Zahran Hashim - the possible mastermind of the Sri Lanka terror attacks

I have been talking about this for the last 36 hours


Is This The Jihadi Imam Who Planned The Sri Lanka Bombings?

22 April, 2019

No group has yet to take credit for the Easter Sunday bombings that killed nearly 300 people in Sri Lanka, though authorities have pinned the attacks on a home-grown jihadist group called the National Thowheeth Jama’th, which was likely aided by an international jihadist network. But according to early unconfirmed reports, the alleged mastermind of the attack was NTJ Imam and prolific lecturer Moulvi Zahran Hashim. Reports alternatively identified him as the mastermind of the bombings, and as one of the suicide bombers who carried them out.
Hashim
Moulvi Zahran Hashim.
But while left-wing critics have accused those sharing this speculation as Islamophobic, it's worth considering: Who is Hashim? And was he connected to Sunday's attacks and if so, how?


First, regardless of whether Hashim was responsible for the attacks or not, another reformist Imam questioned why so many of his lectures which encouraged young Muslims to participate in jihad and kill 'kafir' - infidels - remained up on YouTube (in the wake of the attacks, it appears some of his videos have finally been removed).



The terrorist behind one of the bombings in Sri Lanka was an Islamist Extremist Imam and preacher by the name of Moulvi Zahran Hashim (with many lectures online and YouTube - makes you wonder why YT never banned him for his terrorist ideology). Anyway, here’s part of the report:

19.3K people are talking about this

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hashim has a history of "racism and Islamic superiority." In July 2017, it was reported that NTJ's leaders were being prosecuted for making derogatory remarks about Buddhists. Trying to incite inter-religious strife on the diverse island country is a crime in Sri Lanka. He had also posted several videos of what could be described as "incitement".
It has also been reported that Hashim and the NTJ had planned to attack the Indian embassy in Sri Lanka earlier this month as retribution for India's treatment of its minority Muslim population.
Sri Lanka has experienced a spike in jihadist activity since 2017. Police have arrested roughly two dozen suspected members of NTJ since the attacks, and have vowed to hold those who planned the attacks responsible.