Wednesday 29 August 2012

The US drought

Drought Crop Update: From Harsh Expectations To Harsher Reality

28 August, 2012

Droughts tend to produce vast yield variations. This week's ProFramer crop tour reaffirmed this tendency and as UBS notes, conditions declined with the expectations of low yields compounded by the harsher reality of poor quality - likely to be a major issue for corn feeders. Interestingly, Soybeans looked good from the road but up close (pod formation and beans/pod) were well below normal; and UBS adds to forget the CME for the moment - the cash market is now the attention grabber as they expect it to lead this rally in Ags higher - especially the July 2013s, raising an interesting question of if (or when) the US will restrict exports? Especially with no let-up in the drought conditions.
Lower yields AND lower quality...

With Corn and Soybean conditions data just awful...

and its not getting better anytime soon...

Charts: NOAA and UBS

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