Israel plans attack on Iran

I don't believe Israelis want war any more than Iranians do – it's their sociopath leaders!

In 2003 people demonstrated against the invasion of Iraq; this time round it's not even part of the conversation, at least in this country.

Israel Plans Iran Strike; Citizens Say Government Serious

Dozens of Israelis crowded in front of a storefront at a Jerusalem shopping mall yesterday to pick up new gas masks, part of civil defense preparations in case the military strikes Iran and the Islamic Republic or its allies retaliate.

Bloomberg,

16 August, 2012

“Our leaders seem to have gotten very hawkish in their speeches and this time it seems they mean what they say,” said Yoram Lands, 68, a professor of business administration, who was picking up new masks for himself and his wife at a distribution center in the mall.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Aug. 1 that time “is running out” for a peaceful solution to Iran’s atomic program. The Tel Aviv-based Haaretz newspaper reported Aug. 10 that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are considering bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities before U.S. elections on Nov. 6. Mark Regev, Netanyahu’s spokesman, said government policy is not to comment on media speculation.

“It seems that Netanyahu and Barak are making a special effort now to prepare the Israeli public for an attack on Iran,” said Shlomo Brom, a former commander of the army’s Strategic Planning Division, who said any strike could come within the next six months. In the past, rhetoric was directed at pushing the international community to take stronger action against Iran, said Brom, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

New System

While Israeli leaders repeatedly have said they could strike Iran’s facilities, the words are now being accompanied by civil-defense measures, including a new system that uses text messages to alert the public to missile attacks, wider distribution of gas masks and the appointment of a new Home Front Defense minister. Schools in the north will hold bomb- shelter drills to prepare for possible rocket attacks when they open later this month, the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported today, without saying where it got the information.

The threats also come as nuclear talks between Iran and world powers have stalled and increased sanctions have failed to stop Iran’s atomic progress.

In weighing a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel is aware that it may only delay, not stop, the Persian nation’s nuclear program, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren said today.

“One, two, three, four years are a long time in the Middle East -- look what’s happened in the last year” in terms of political change, Oren said today at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in Washington.

Israel’s Economy

Concern that the Israeli moves may herald a possible strike helped weaken the shekel to its lowest value in almost 15 months this week and pushed the Tel Aviv Stock Market (TA-25) to a three-week low on Aug. 13. The Bloomberg Israel-US Equity Index of the most-traded Israeli companies in New York sank the most in three months, making the benchmark gauge the cheapest in two years relative to the Standard & Poor’s 500.

The cost of insuring Israel’s debt rose today, with five- year credit-default swaps increasing to 155, the highest level in more than two weeks, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.

“With the headlines and saber-rattling we’ve had the last week, there is a higher risk premium, so it’s logical you see the currency weaken,” said Jonathan Katz, a Jerusalem-based economist for HSBC Holdings Plc.

U.S. Cooperation

U.S. officials, concerned that a conflict could destabilize the region and send oil prices soaring, have been urging caution. Panetta told reporters yesterday the “window is still open” to resolve the dispute through diplomacy and that he thinks Israel hasn’t made a decision “at this time” to attack Iranian nuclear sites.

David Rothkopf, a visiting scholar at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it is “extremely unlikely Israel could do anything without a regional ally or the cooperation of the U.S.”

Iranian officials have dismissed the threats of an attack.

“We don’t think any of the officials in this illegitimate regime wants to do something as illogical as this,” Ramin Mehmanparast, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, told reporters at a Tehran press conference yesterday. Iran says its nuclear program aims to produce electricity for a growing population.

Amid earlier Israeli threats, the U.S. and its European allies passed tougher sanctions against the Islamic Republic that have been taking a toll on the country’s economy.

Oil Production

Iranian oil production has declined 20 percent this year to 2.86 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Crude oil futures in New York have advanced 19 percent in the seven days ending Aug. 7 as Iranian exports have fallen, according to an Aug. 10 report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders.

Prices of meat, rice and bread have spiraled in Iran as inflation accelerated to 22.4 percent in the 12 months through June 20.

There are concerns that repeated Israeli threats to strike Iran may force Israel’s hand if the West doesn’t take more serious action.

The Israelis are “almost in the comic situation of threatening to strike repeatedly -- this is the third threat in three months -- but nothing ever happens, which in my view is damaging to their credibility,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who is a distinguished fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington policy group.

‘Radio Silence’

Barak in February said that Israel would need to act militarily within months, before Iran reaches a “zone of immunity” where its underground enrichment facilities would be invulnerable to Israeli air strikes.

Isaac Herzog, a parliament member from the opposition Labor party, criticized the government for creating the impression of an imminent attack.

“If Netanyahu and Barak are serious about the subject, they should maintain ‘radio silence’ about it, and Netanyahu should meet with Obama in the White House to discuss it,” Herzog told Israel Radio.

Polls show the Israeli public’s opposition to a strike has been easing. Some 46 percent of Israelis are against an attack on Iran without U.S. support, according to a poll by the Dialog Institute reported on Channel 10 on Aug. 12. That compares with 58 percent opposed to such a move in a survey by Dialog published on March 8 in Haaretz. Both surveys questioned 500 Israeli adults.

‘Closing Window’

Matan Vilnai, the outgoing home front defense minister, said the ministry has prepared for a scenario in which hundreds of rockets fired by Iran and its allies fall on Israel, the Maariv newspaper reported.

“The evaluations are that the war would last 30 days on several fronts,” Vilnai said, according to Maariv. The number of Israeli fatalities are estimated at about 500, “maybe more, maybe less,” he said, according to Maariv.

U.S. presidential elections may influence an Israeli decision.

Israelis “believe there’s a closing window of opportunity, and they also believe politically it’s far more complex if they wait until after November to strike,” said David Makovsky, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I think they’re concerned that if they attack during a lame-duck period they have a lot more uncertainty about American reaction.”

Syria Conflict

An attack would also come as one of Iran’s closest allies, Syria, is busy battling domestic insurgents who control parts of the country’s cities and countryside. That also has weakened Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, an Iranian ally that depends on Syria for arms and support.

“This is the best window Israel is going to get,” said Gerald Steinberg, professor of political science at Bar Ilan University outside Tel Aviv. “If a strike doesn’t happen in the next six months and Iran doesn’t back down, then the Israeli threat will lose its credibility.”

Israel to strike Iran as window of opportunity narrows?

Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate amid reports over the past week that Tel Aviv has drawn up plans for a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before the US presidential election in November.

Reuters,

15 August, 2012

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the country’s new ambassador to China, Matan Vilnai, recently discussed precise estimates of Israeli casualties, and the timeframe of a possible war with Iran. A hypothetical war with Iran would probably last a month, and include about 500 estimated Israeli casualties from Iranian missile strikes, Vilnai told Israeli newspaper Maariv on Wednesday. 

 

Though Israel has repeatedly threatened preemptive strikes against Iran over the country’s controversial nuclear program, this latest round of saber-rattling is taking place under slightly different circumstances. 

 

A new, last-minute National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) update provided to the Obama administration mirrored Israeli intelligence that Iran had made bigger nuclear advances than previously thought, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Sunday. Iran’s alleged progress towards nuclear weaponry was “far beyond the scope known” to UN inspectors, the report said.

Haaretz did not name any sources or confirm any information in its report, quoting a senior Israeli official who declined to be identified.

Tel Aviv seems to be taking action in support of its hawkish stance, testing emergency text-messaging services in some cities, and increasing the sale and distribution of gas-masks. Recent polls also suggest that, while domestic Israeli opinion is still opposed to war against Iran without international support, that stance is gradually softening as the government seems to be preparing its citizens for war.

Their last chance to strike

Another consideration is the November US presidential election: Israeli officials would rather strike sooner, with Barack Obama in office, than risk the unknowns of a Mitt Romney administration. 

 

"If Mitt Romney is elected, history shows that presidents do not undertake dramatic operations in their first year in office unless forced to," the unidentified Israeli official told Haaretz.

The current instability in Syria, Iran’s biggest regional ally, lends credence to the theory that Israel’s best opportunity to strike may be imminent.

Leon Panetta and the Obama administration have signaled no change in their preference that the situation to be resolved through diplomacy, leading to the conclusion that if Israel finally decides to strike, it will do so alone. 

 

“I've said this before, I'll say it now: I don't believe they made a decision as to whether or not they will – they will go in and attack Iran at this time," Panetta told reporters at a press conference on Tuesday. "Obviously, they're an independent, they're a sovereign country. They'll ultimately make decisions based on what they think is in their national security interest…The reality is that we still think there is room to continue to negotiate."

But without US backing, Israel’s repeated threats to attack Iran’s nuclear sites are being met with increasing skepticism. 

 

Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official, echoed that sentiment, telling Bloomberg Businessweek that the Israelis are “almost in the comic situation of threatening to strike repeatedly – this is the third threat in three months – but nothing ever happens, which in my view is damaging to their credibility.” 

 

Tehran dismissed the latest round of Israeli threats as “stupid.” 

 

“Even if some officials in the illegitimate regime [Israel] want to carry out such a stupid action, there are those inside [the Israeli government] who won't allow it because they know they would suffer very severe consequences from such an act," Iranian ministry spokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast told reporters on Tuesday.