Putin's Iran card

RUSSIA WARNS WEST IT MAY CHANGE ITS STANCE ON IRAN

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia may revise its stance in the Iranian nuclear talks amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, a senior diplomat warned Wednesday.

The Big Story,

19 March, 2014

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, according to the Interfax news agency, that Russia didn't want to use the Iranian nuclear talks to "raise the stakes," but may have to do so in response to the actions by the United States and the European Union.

The statement is the most serious threat of retaliation by Moscow after the U.S. and the EU announced sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.

Ryabkov, who is Russia's envoy to the Iranian talks, said that Russia considers the "reunification" with Crimea as far more important than the developments surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.

Russia has cooperated with the United States and other Western nations in the Iranian talks, but Ryabkov warned that its attitude may now change.

"We wouldn't like to use these talks as an element of the game of raising the stakes taking into account the sentiments in some European capitals, Brussels and Washington," Ryabkov was quoted as saying by Interfax. "But if they force us into that, we will take retaliatory measures here as well. The historic importance of what happened in the last weeks and days regarding the restoration of historical justice and reunification of Crimea with Russia is incomparable to what we are dealing with in the Iranian issue."

Ryabkov didn't elaborate on how Russia's position in the talks may change.

Iran has agreed to curb its nuclear activities under the terms of a deal last November with six world powers, including Russia.

Tehran insists that its nuclear program has peaceful goals and dismisses Western fears that it could be a cover for a bid to develop nuclear weapons. It has agreed to temporarily limit its atomic work in return for some sanctions relief. In the meantime, both sides are working on a fuller deal placing long-term restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for an end to all economic sanctions.

Russia Just Warned The US That It May Play The 'Iran Card' On Ukraine
Business Insider,

19 March, 2014

A senior Russian diplomat signaled a possible shift Wednesday in Russia's position on the ongoing Iranian nuclear talks amid tensions with the United States and other Western countries, according to The Associated Press.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by the Russian news organization Interfax as saying the recent sanctions announced by the European Union and U.S. may force Russia to retaliate by altering its stance on the Iran talks. Such a move would dramatically escalate tensions between Russia and the West, which are already high amid Russia's annexation of Crimea on Tuesday.

"We wouldn't like to use these talks as an element of the game of raising the stakes taking into account the sentiments in some European capitals, Brussels and Washington," said Ryabkov, who is Russia's envoy to the ongoing Iran talks.

"But if they force us into that, we will take retaliatory measures here as well. The historic importance of what happened in the last weeks and days regarding the restoration of historical justice and reunification of Crimea with Russia is incomparable to what we are dealing with in the Iranian issue."

This brings up the possibility of colliding two of the most sensitive geopolitical issues of President Barack Obama's second term. Thus far, Russia and President Vladimir Putin have cooperated with the West on the Iran talks.

The move would put Obama in a corner. He wants a permanent deal with Iran — so much so he has threatened to veto any congressional bill that could collapse the talks. He also needs Putin and Russia as his ally in the talks, along with a variety of high-profile foreign policy issues like in Syria and Afghanistan. Together, this reduces the U.S.'s overall leverage in slapping any harsh sanctions or other measures on Russia in response to its moves in Ukraine.

On Monday, Obama announced sanctions against seven Russians and four Ukrainians for their roles in the ongoing crisis. He has promised more "costs" if Russia continues to escalate the situation.

"We'll continue to make clear to Russia that further provocations will achieve nothing except to further isolate Russia and diminish its place in the world," Obama said Monday. "The international community will continue to stand together to oppose any violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and continued Russian military intervention in Ukraine will only deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation and exact a greater toll on the Russian economy.

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Going forward, we can calibrate our response based on whether Russia chooses to escalate or to de-escalate the situation. Now, I believe there’s still a path to resolve this situation diplomatically in a way that addresses the interest of both Russia and Ukraine. That includes Russia pulling its forces in Crimea back to their bases, supporting the deployment of additional international monitors in Ukraine, and engaging in dialogue with the Ukrainian government, which has indicated its openness to pursuing constitutional reform as they move forward towards elections this spring."