Questions
on Ukraine the West chooses not to answer
Ukrainian
and Western refusal to answer Moscow’s hard questions explains
Russia’s tough stance on the crisis in Kiev.
Ignoring
Russian concerns is a Western habit adopted after the Soviet Union’s
collapse; when NATO bombed Yugoslavia; during the recognition of
Kosovo as an independent state, and the US push to install an
anti-missile shield over Europe that can target Russia.
It
also happened recently when Western diplomats flocked to Ukraine to
smile and wave and lobby their interests in a future Ukrainian
government, while accusing Russia of meddling in Ukrainian affairs.
But
it seems that in Ukraine lies Russia’s red line and Moscow no
longer takes “don’t know, don’t care” for an answer.
Here’s
the questions.
1.
Why did the opposition oust Yanukovich after he conceded to their
demands?
On
February 21, Yanukovich and the three Ukrainian parliamentary faction
leaders signed a reconciliation deal co-signed by Foreign Ministers
of France, Germany and Poland. A gesture that their countries would
serve as agreement guarantors.
The
agreement provides a de-escalation roadmap of constitutional reform,
a national unity government, early presidential election and
disbandment of Maidan fighter groups.
Hours
after it was signed, Right Sector radicals, key to the violence
unleashed in Kiev which left a hundred people dead, gave Yanukovich
an ultimatum: resign or face a siege of his residence.
Against
Moscow’s advice, Yanukovich fled.
Vladimir
Putin’s comments illuminate the Russian position here: "He
[Yanukovich] had in fact given up his power already, and as I
believe, as I told him, he had no chance of being re-elected.. What
was the purpose of all those illegal, unconstitutional actions, why
did they have to create this chaos in the country? Armed and masked
militants are still roaming the streets of Kiev. This is a question
to which there is no answer."
Russia
says the February 21 agreement must be implemented. The opposition
signed it yet allows an uncontrolled militia of violent armed
radicals send fear and loathing across a large swath of Ukraine.
The
US says the agreement no longer matters – because Yanukovich fled.
The EU signatories don’t seem to be bothered about it either.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin (AFP Photo)Russian President Vladimir Putin
(AFP Photo)
2.
Why is the coup-appointed govt replacing oligarchs linked to
Yanukovich with... oligarchs?
Popular
resentment of Yanukovich blossomed over corruption. Protesters
pointed to power abuse, theft and allowing linked-oligarchs raid
businesses of other clans. Evidence came readily after they fled -
photos of their homes’ sumptuous interiors.
But
the new self-appointed govt is replacing Yanukovich’s oligarchs
with their own. Kiev just appointed billionaires as governors of
Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk respectively, a move that also drew
Putin’s ire: "Mr. Kolomoisky was appointed governor of
Dnepropetrovsk. This is a unique crook. He even managed to cheat our
oligarch Roman Abramovich two or three years ago. Scammed him.."
Both
hold major assets in their respective regions and thousands depend on
them for work. Both appointments are meant to stabilize a volatile
society and ensure loyalty to the capital but critics say Kiev is
reinventing fiefdoms to nobility in exchange for servitude. For
Putin, who famously excluded oligarchs from politics, the move is an
anathema.
3.
Why did the post-coup parliament strip Russian language of its
regional status?
A
bill repealing a law on regional languages was among dozens
rubber-stamped by a chaotic Ukrainian parliament in the first
post-coup days. It allowed the Ukrainian nationalist and anti-Russian
Svoboda (Freedom) Party put a feather in its cap. Yet it sent a
ripple of hostility south and east from Kiev, where Russian-speakers
are a large minority or even majority.
Kiev
pledged to restore the status of Russian but now says the acting
Ukrainian president won’t sign such a bill into law.
4.
Why did Kiev attack the Constitutional Court?
Several
Constitutional Court judges were accused of violating their oath and
abruptly fired amid coup govt orders they be prosecuted. The judges
branded this as an attack on the principle of separation of powers.
Putin called it "monkey business".
As
Yanukovich was not procedurally impeached but through a simple show
of hands the legality of his impeachment is open to challenges taken
by several Ukrainian regions and, diplomatically, by Russia. The
Ukrainian Constitutional Court is the proper authority to rule on the
issue yet the new Kiev admin is mooting totally disbanding it and
giving its functions to the Supreme Court.
5.
Why would the West support the coup in Ukraine?
From
the Russian perspective, the West fueled the fires of protest and
ensured the Ukrainian government was toppled. Now it is attempting to
legitimize its factious replacement. What Russia calls an
unconstitutional coup, the West is branding a public revolution. It
is possible that it is both.
Moscow
does not challenge the reality. It doesn’t seek a Yanukovich return
to power. It would work with the people who ousted him, as it did
with the Yushchenko presidency. But Moscow demands the Kiev coup govt
carries a national mandate to govern, in both east and west . Without
it, any government is unsustainable.
Putin’s
position is that it now maybe too late, despite his repeated warnings
Ukraine would polarize. "Did our partners in the West and those
who call themselves the government in Kiev now not foresee that
events would take this turn? I said to them over and over: Why are
you whipping the country into a frenzy like this?"
A
stable Ukraine is essential for Russia for many reasons, humanitarian
being just few of them. Of course Russia wants ethnic Russians in
Ukraine to be safe from potential violence and persecution. But there
are also more pragmatic considerations as well.
There’s
the Black Sea Fleet, strong economic interdependence and there is
gas. Ukraine transits Russian natural gas to Europe and is thus
essential to the Russian and European economies. Yet now a desperate
Kiev mulls privatizing its gas pipelines to fill its empty coffers,
while Moscow’s questions remain unheard.
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