Posts
Sea
Ice Loss, Human Warming Places Earth Under Ongoing Fire of Severe
Weather Events Through Early 2014, Likelihood of Extremes For Some
Regions Increases by 500%
(Global Temperature Anomaly on March 4, 2014 showing a warmer than normal world sitting beneath an ominously hot Arctic. Image source: University of Maine.)
4
March, 2014
Heat
overburden at the roof of our world. It’s a dangerous signal that
the first, worst effects of human-caused climate change are starting
to ramp up. And it’s a signal we are receiving now. A strong
message coinciding with a world-wide barrage of some of the worst
January and February weather extremes ever experienced in human
reckoning.
An
Ongoing Arctic Heat Amplification
Ever
since December, the Arctic has been experiencing what could well be
called a heat wave during winter-time. Average temperatures have
ranged between 2 and 7 degrees Celsius above normal winter time
readings (1979-2000) over the entire Arctic basin. Local readings
frequently exceed 20 degrees Celsius above average over large zones
that shift and swell, circulating in a great cloud of abnormal warmth
around the roof of the world.
Today
is no different.
Average
temperatures for the entire Arctic are 4.16 degrees Celsius above
the, already warmer than normal, 1979 to 2000 base line, putting
these readings in a range about 6 degrees Celsius above Arctic
temperatures during the 1880s. When compared to global average
warming of about .8 C above 1880s norms, this is an extreme heat
departure that places the Arctic region well out of balance with both
its traditional climate and with global climate at large.
Local
large hot zones with temperatures ranging between 10 and 20 degrees
Celsius above average appear east of Svalbard, in the Arctic Ocean
north of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and over a broad swath of
the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. These zones of warmth are as odd as
they are somewhat horrific, creating regions where temperatures are
higher than they would otherwise be in April or, in some cases, late
May.
Sea
Ice Melt Over a Warming Arctic Ocean
This
ongoing condition of extreme Arctic heat is a symptom of overall
Arctic amplification set off by a number of strong feedbacks now
underway. These include sea ice measures that are currently at or
near record low values (February
saw new record lows in both extent and area measures)
as well as a large and growing local emission of greenhouse gasses
from polar stores long locked away by the boreal cold. Arctic
geography also contributes to the problem as a thinning layer of sea
ice rests atop an ocean that is swiftly soaking up the heat resulting
from human warming.
During
winter time, the combination of thin sea ice, warm ocean, and higher
concentrations of greenhouse gasses generates excess warmth over and
near the Arctic Ocean basin. The warmer waters, having trapped solar
heat all summer long, now vent the warmth into the polar atmosphere
through the sparse, cracked, and greatly diminished sea ice. And
while this increasing heat imbalance has been shown to be lengthening
the melt season by 5 days per decade,
it is also stretching its influence well into winter time as ocean
heat now continually bleeds through a thinning and ever more
perforated layer of sea ice.
Other
effects include an overburden of greenhouse gasses trapping long wave
radiation to a greater extent in the polar zone while the already
warmer than usual condition creates weaknesses in the Jet Stream that
generate large atmospheric waves. The south-north protrusions of
these waves invade far into the Arctic Ocean basin over Svalbard and
Alaska, transporting yet more heat into the Arctic from lower
latitudes.
The
net effect is the extraordinary Arctic warming we are now seeing.
Earth
Under Continuous Fire of Extreme Weather
This
rapidly increasing warmth at the Arctic pole generates a variety of
weather instabilities that ripple on through the Northern Hemisphere.
Meanwhile, the ongoing impacts of equatorial warming or such warming
in concert with the far-flung effects of polar amplification and an
increase in the hydrological cycle of about 6% are causing a number
of extraordinary events over the Southern Hemisphere.
In
short, the barrage of extreme weather is now entirely global in
nature. A brutal if amazing phenomena directly associated with a
human-heated climate system.
(Map of extreme weather events throughout the world from January 1 through February 14. Note that it is now difficult to find a region that is currently not experiencing exceptional weather. Image source: Japanese Meteorological Agency.)
Over
the western US, Canada, and Alaska,
a Jet Stream ridge that has persisted for a year has generated both
abnormally warm conditions for this region, with Alaska experiencing
its third hottest January on record, and an extreme drought for
California that is among the worst in its history. This drought is
now poised to push US food prices up by between 10-15 percent as
California officials are forced to cut off water flows to farmers.
Only
the most powerful of storm systems are able to penetrate the ridge.
And the result, for the US West Coast, is a condition that either
includes drought or heavy precipitation and flooding events. A
condition that became plainly apparent as winter storm Titan dumped
as much as 5 inches of rainfall over drought-stricken southern
California, setting off landslides and flash floods that sent
enormous waves of water and topsoil rushing down roads and gullies
alike. And
though the storms came, the drought still remains.
Added
to the list of extremes for the Western US are
a number of early starts and/or late ends to fire seasons with
California,
Arizona
and New Mexico all experiencing wildfires during the period of
December through February.
Moving
east, we encounter the down-sloping trough that is the flip side of
the ridge bringing warmth and drought to deluge conditions to the
west. So, for the Eastern and Central United States, we see the
transport of chill air down from the Arctic Ocean, over Canada and
deep into a zone from The Dakotas to Texas to Maine. As a result, we
have seen winter storm after winter storm surge down into these
regions, dumping snow, ice, and heavy rain while occasionally coming
into conflict with Gulf warmth and moisture to spark tornadoes and
thunderstorms over snow-covered regions.
One
cannot separate the warm air invasion over Alaska and the heat
radiating out of the perforated sea ice from the numerous polar
vortex collapse events that have led to this extreme winter weather
over Central and Eastern parts of the US. And so, it is also
impossible to ignore the warping and deleterious impacts of
human-caused climate change on the world’s weather.
The
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), in its latest extreme weather assessment notes:
In
the winter a deep reservoir of cold air becomes established through
the atmosphere over the Arctic because of the lack of sunlight. This
is usually held over high latitudes by the Jet Stream, a fast moving
band of air 10 km up in the atmosphere which drives weather. This
year, a “kink” in the jet stream allowed the reservoir of cold
air to move southwards across the USA. A blocking pattern meant it
was locked into place, keeping severe weather systems over much of
the Eastern United States extending down to northeast Mexico.
This
‘kink’ and related blocking pattern the WMO mentions is also the
leading edge of the advance of cold Arctic air over the North
Atlantic which combined with ocean heat and moisture to aim intense
storms at Western Europe. In essence, a powerful planetary wave or
Rossby Wave type feature:
(The
Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream takes on Planetary Wave pattern with
an extreme high amplitude ridge over the Western US, Canada, Alaska
and the Beaufort Sea and a deep, cold trough digging into the Eastern
US and spreading out over the North Atlantic on February 26th. Image
source: University
of Washington.)
For
as we look yet further East we come to a North Atlantic Ocean that
has been little more than the barrel of a gun firing a two and a half
month long barrage of storms at England and Western Europe.
For the Jet Stream, at this point, is intensified by Arctic air
fleeing from a warming north coming into contact with the also
warming waters of the North Atlantic. In this region, the planetary
wave feature developed with severe and lasting consequences for
England, France, Portugal and Venice.
The
upshot was the wettest period in over 250 years for England as well
as the windiest period since at least the 1960s. During February, two
of these storms generated 80-100 mph winds and waves off Ireland and
the UK that were the highest ever recorded for this region.
Meanwhile,
the powerful storm surges associated with these storms reshaped the
English coastline, uncovered bombs dropped during World War II and
unearthed the stumps of an ancient forest that spread from England to
France before it was buried in the floods of glacial melt at the end
of the last ice age.
The battering continues through early March with England suffering
losses in excess of 1 billion dollars.
The
storms ripping across the Atlantic also resulted in the loss of over
21,000 sea birds and have heavily impacted France, Spain and Portugal
with record rains, gales and tidal flooding. During early February, a
series of gales also drove high tides along the coast of Italy and
spurred flooding in Venice.
As
storms slammed into coastal western Europe, strange fires were also
burning along Arctic shores as a very dry and windy winter sparked
blazes along the coastlines of Norway.
These fires, some of the worst in Norway’s history, occurred during
January and February, months that have never seen wildfires before.
So the strange story of flood and fire that tends to come with
climate change may seem yet more radical and extreme when we include
what has happened over this section of Europe during 2014.
By
the time we enter Eastern Europe, Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Russia
we again encounter an up-slope in the Jet Stream along with related
periods of heat and drought.
Record highs were set throughout a zone from Germany to Slovenia to
Russia. Germany experienced January temperatures that were 2.8
degrees Celsius above the 20th Century average while Russia
experienced heat anomalies approaching 10 degrees Celsius hotter than
normal that persisted for up to a week in length. In Turkey, farmers
frantically drilled into drying lake-beds for water as both warmer
and drier than normal conditions combined with ground water depletion
to generate severe agricultural stress.
But
the strain for Israel, which experienced lowest ever winter rainfalls
and one of the worst droughts in its history, was far worse.
According to the Israeli Water Agency’s March 4 Statement, water
supplies across the country were now at record low levels:
“Such
low supply during this period has never before been documented and is
unprecedented in Water Authority records,” the agency said. “The
negative records broken in February are much more dramatic and
significant than those of January.”
Drought-stressed
Jordan has also been forced to ration water supplies, with rainfall
levels now only 34 percent of that received during a typical January
and February.
Abnormal
warmth and drought also extended into China as
most parts of the ancient empire received between 50-80 percent below
average rainfall. Temperatures averaged over the entire country were
the warmest seen since at least 1961. The
warmth and dryness resulted in record low river and lake levels
across the country with China’s largest lake turning into a sea of
cracked mud and grasses.
In
Singapore and nearby Malaysia, a two month-long heatwave is now among
the worst ever recorded for this region.
The
situation has been worsened as nearby forest fires have combined with
industrial pollution to produce a kind of all-encompassing smog.
A nasty brew that cut visibility in the region to less than one
kilometer.
(Smoke
and smog from fires and industrial activity visible over Singapore
and Malaysia. Image source: Lance-Modis.)
One
would think that, with major heat anomalies occurring over the
Arctic, the far removed Southern Hemisphere would be somehow
insulated from impacts.
But whether from far-reaching Arctic influence or simply from other
factors related to human-caused climate change, austral regions were
among the hardest hit by the, now global, spate of extreme weather
events.
Australia’s
record 2013 heatwave didn’t miss a beat as a hottest ever summer
continued on through January and February.
A period in the middle of January showed exceptionally severe high
temperatures with World Meteorological Agency reports noting:
One
of the most significant multi-day heatwaves on record affected
southeast Australia over the period from 13 to 18 January 2014. The
major area affected by the heatwave consisted of Victoria, Tasmania
(particularly the western half), southern New South Wales away from
the coast, and the southern half of South Australia. Over most parts
of this region, it ranked alongside the heatwaves of January-February
2009, January 1939 and (from the limited information available)
January 1908 as the most significant multi-day heatwaves on record.
A
number of site records were set during the summer, including:
•
Melbourne had seven
40ºC days; annual average is one day
•
Adelaide had 11 days
of 42ºC or above; annual average is one day
•
Canberra had 19 days
of 35ºC or above; annual average is 5.4 days
While
Australia was sweltering under its hottest summer on record,
south-central Brazil was suffering its worst-ever drought.
By
mid February, Brazil had been forced to ration water in over 140 of
its cities.
The result is that neighborhoods in some of Brazil’s largest cities
only receive water once every three days. During this,
extraordinarily intense, period of heat and dryness, untold damage
was done to Brazil’s crops. But, by early March, a doubling of
prices for coffee coming out of Brazil gave some scope to the damage.
January was also Brazil’s hottest on record and the combination of
extreme heat and dryness pushed the nation’s water reservoirs for
southeastern and west-central regions to below 41 percent of capacity
driving utility water storage levels to a critically low 19 percent.
In
near mirror to the US weather flip-flop, northern Brazil experienced
exceptionally heavy rainfall, apparently gaining back the lion’s
share of moisture lost in the south and stalling a two year drought
affecting north-eastern regions.
In
combination, these crazy weather extremes are thought to have done
nearly $5 billion in damages to Brazil’s crops so far this year, on
top of $9 billion in losses last year. Losses run the gambit from
coffee to beef, soy, citrus, and sugarcane. It is worth noting that
Brazil is the largest producer of all these foodstuffs with the one
exception being soy.
The
same drought impacting Brazil also damaged crops in Paraguay and
Argentina with
soybeans among the hardest hit.
Given
the ongoing extreme weather impacts, it is worth noting that world
soybean prices are now up by more than 9 percent over the 2012-2013
period with almost all foodstuffs seeing price increases in the
global marketplace. The UN FAO food index remained over 200 through
late January, a dangerously high indicator that shows numerous
countries having difficulty supplying affordable food to their
populations.
Extremes
Cover the Globe
The
above list does little justice to the depth and scope of extremes
experienced, merely serving to highlight some of the most notable or
severe instances. In general, it could well be said that the world
climate crisis is rapidly turning into a world severe weather crisis.
January and February are usually rather calm months for the globe,
weather-wise. So the fact that we are seeing record storms, rainfall,
snowfall, floods, fires, droughts, winds, and heatwaves in every
corner of the globe during what should be a relatively mild period is
cause for serious concern.
And
many scientists are taking notice. For example, Omar Baddour, Chief
of the WMO’s data division notes an amazing ramping up of extreme
weather events worldwide, citing preliminary model assessments in
an interview with The Guardian,
he notes:
“We
need more time to assess whether this is unusual [on a global level]
but if you look at the events in individual regions, like the
heatwave in Australia or the cold in the US, it looks very unusual
indeed. Next month we will publish a major report showing the
likelihood of extreme heatwaves is increased 500% [with climate
change].”
The
shadow climate change casts has now grown very long and there is
little that has not now been touched by it. But, sadly and
unfortunately, even under a regime of full mitigation and adaptation,
the worst effects are yet to come. If we are wise, we will do our
best to mitigate as much as we can and work together to adapt to the
rest.
Hat
Tip to Colorado Bob
Links:
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.