Ukraine civil war update 01/26/2015

Update from the Saker

Ukraine SITREP 26th January

The Vineyard of the Saker,

26 January, 2015

I have been trying to wait as long as possible to get some facts confirmed, but at this point in time I am confident enough to say that there are numerous and convergent signs that things are going extremely badly for the Kiev junta. Just look at the following recent headlines:

• ​Kiev urgently summons NATO-Ukraine meeting in Brussels
• Junta officers get the right to shoot their man in case of insubordination
• Kiev introduces state of emergency in Donbass, high alert across Ukraine
• Resistance to New Wave of Ukraine Mobilization Has Already Begun
• Panic in Kiev: Ukrainian forces surrender Donbass

Clearly, things are not going well *at all* for the Junta.

Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature.  However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic.  However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them.  By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.

Here are two SITREPS translated by the great Kazzura which I find interesting:

Prime Minister Zakharchenko

Corps commander Eduard Basurin

I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy. Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.

Option one: false flag

The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag. Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal. And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty". We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.

Option two: declare with with Russia

Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor. But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state". And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in. Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact. There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters. In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".

Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.

This one is far from over

I therefore caution everybody against any premature triumphalism. It ain't over and it won't be over anytime soon. Even if the Novorussians comprehensively defeat the Junta forces (again!), this will not push their attack very far beyond the current frontlines (they just don't have the manpower for that). So don't expect the Novorussians to free Kiev and overthrown the Junta. That is something only the Ukrainian people themselves can do, and right now they are nowhere near that kind of outcome.

Things to look very, very bad for Kiev and the current tactical difficulties faced by the Junta might well result in an operational level collapse. At which point we can expect all sides except the Novorussians to try to revive some kind of stale and futile "peace process" which the Novorussians will have to accept, except that this time around Russia will probably make more demands then the first time around. Now that Putin has declared that the Junta's army what just "NATO's legion" the mood in Moscow is rather dark and the disgust with Poroshenko and all his lies very wide-spread. So even if Russia accepts another cease-fire, the Junta will have to pay a price for its failed assault. I think that the loss of Mariupol might be one of the conditions demanded by Russia (at least I hope so).

What about the imperial "Axis of Kindness"?

The Empire is in full combat mode. After George Soros, the US Commander of NATO ground forces has visited Kiev and the western credit rating agencies have further downgraded Russia even though every single objective economic indicator says otherwise. Things are a tad more complicated in Europe were the victory of Syriza in Greece will create a major risk for the future of the EU. Sure, Merkel is more then willing to do the USA's bidding, but her popularity suffers from it and tensions between the EU plutocrats and the European people are only on the rise. In France the entire Charlie Hebdo psyop has resulted in a chaotic and most volatile situation, the Polish nonsense about Auschwitz being liberated by Ukrainians has damaged the credibility of the russophobic camp and the awareness that the Kiev Junta and its supporters are bona fide Nazis is slowly but inexorably growing everywhere.

As Lincoln is supposed to have said "you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". Time is running out for the Nazi freaks in Kiev.

The Saker

26.01.2015 Military Report of Novorossia

Putin offers shelter to Ukrainian men

President Vladimir Putin believes that the length of stay of the citizens of Ukraine, first of all, of military age, in Russia can be increased.

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.nz/2015/01/putin-offers-shelter-to-ukrainian-men.html

"By the way, many people already avoid mobilization, try to move to Russia, to wait it out here for a while. And rightly so, because they are just being pushed there as cannon fodder, under the bullets," - said Putin during a meeting with students at National Mineral Resources University.

However, the head of the state noted that the length of stay of the citizens of Ukraine on the territory of Russia is restricted by law, according to RIA Novosti.

"In accordance with the new law, citizens of Ukraine can not stay on the territory of the Russian Federation for more than 30 days. They go back, and they are grabbed! And again, sent there, under the bullets. So we will probably change something here, " - said Putin. "In the framework of the law we can increase the length of stay of certain categories of persons, primarily of military age".

Translators Note:

This idea has been floated in the Russian media, and looks like Putin took notice. This is an excellent peaceful measure which can cool the Ukrainian war effort, and a step towards peace. Not to mention, it would save the lives of these young men. And although Ukraine may replace these men with American or NATO contractors, it is the right decision.

Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Their ties go beyond business, a great number of residents of both countries are family. This has been a great resource for both Donbass refugees, Ukrainian men running from mobilization, and even residents of Central and Western Ukraine hit by the economic crisis. No matter how hard America tries, it will not succeed in the long run in splitting up Russia and Ukraine, tied by common destiny. 

"And then everything will go in accordance with the plan. The plan, of course, is a military secret."--Zakharchenko

1/26/2015

Aleksandr Zakharchenko announcement, 1/26/2015

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

“Combat operations are continuing practically on the entire DPR territory. We are attempting to unite our forces with LPR, hoping this will happen in the near future. By doing so we will even out the frontline. And then everything will go in accordance with the plan. The plan, of course, is a military secret. Enemy’s losses only on the southern sector included 4 tanks, 2 BMPs, and up to one infantry company. It is difficult to estimate enemy personnel losses, because we were conducting an artillery duel and the enemy was able to evacuate the corpses and the wounded. But three burned out KamAZ trucks means, at a minimum, 60 killed. Our data indicates the Ukrainian army lost on DPR territory between 13 and 19 February 962 killed, over 1200 wounded, 456 missing. These numbers were obtained through radio intercepts.”

UAF generals are escaping the "Donbass ship", ATO command "is not available"

Yesterday the only UAF lifeline to Debaltsevo was already under NAF fire, today more reports confirm it's over

January 26, 2015
Dmitry Dzygovbrodsky (Ukrainian blogger)

Translated by Kristina Rus

Mothers of Ukraine, save your sons: UAF generals are running from Donbass, leaving the soldiers behind
The field headquarters of the Ukrainian security forces, formed in the area of the ATO, are escaping and abandoning their troops, according to the Committee of the Military Mothers of Ukraine as of January 25, 2015.

"Due to the threat of further advance of the militants, UAF Operational Headquarters deployed in Kramatorsk is urgently preparing for evacuation. In addition, operational groups of the General staff hastily left the combat area in Debaltsevo. Commanders complain that they can not get in touch with the command in Kiev and personally with the commander [of the ATO] Muzhenko. To prevent the escape of soldiers from the battlefield in Debaltsevo cauldron, "zagradotriady" [ideologically filtered army police] from the volunteer battalions, arrived to the area."

UAF generals are going to throw ordinary soldiers to slaughter. For the pictures in the Western media. Mothers of Ukraine, save your sons!
Debaltsevo cauldron is a reality [with 7,500 Ukrainian soldiers].
It will be worse then the Ilovaisk cauldron. It will be an invisible death from the sky - "grads", artillery and fire. The Army of Novorossia has THREE times more artillery systems than in the summer of 2014.

Even now the losses of UAF are terrifying. 
After Ukrainian army killed civilians, women and children in Donetsk, Gorlovka, the Army of Novorossia will not have mercy.
For Vanya [#jesuisVanya]!

Vania before with his brother Tima, killed by Ukrainian shelling, and after without two eyes, two legs and one arm

P.S. Moms of Ukraine, save your sons. Death came for them in Debaltsevo!

P. P. S. Asking for maximum repost.

26.01.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. Latest news of Ukraine, DPR, Kiev, Mariupol

“Right now the main news is the Debaltsevo pocket. The offensive is continuing."--Strelkov Update

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.nz/2015/01/right-now-main-news-is-debaltsevo.html

1/26/2015

LPR militiaman report on Strelkov’s VKontakte page: 

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

“Right now the main news is the Debaltsevo pocket. The offensive is continuing. This thought is animating everyone. Heavy fighting on the Bakhmutka, our forces launched an attack here after repelling a Ukrainian attack yesterday. We launched an attack on Nizhnee from Novotoshkovka, and Krymskoye from the 29th and 31st checkpoints. We have cleared Zhelobok, took many prisoners. We are fighting for every meter of Popasnaya, the fighting is in its second day. Ukrainians stopped receiving reinforcements, while we  were able to conduct a rotation which means the fighting has regained its intensity. Ukrainians tried to use their reserves to retake Krasnyy Pakhar but the attack failed. Militia in Novogriorevka (north of Debaltsevo) attacked Ukrainian forces in Logvinovo, but the Ukrainian positions held. The capture of Logvinovo, which sits on the road between Debaltsevo and Artemovsk, will cut off Ukrainian forces from its supplies, and divide the pocket into two parts which will greatly worsen their situation.”