19
January, 2015
Ukrainian
troops have launched a massive assault on militia-held areas Sunday
morning after an order from Kiev, a presidential aide said. The
self-proclaimed Donetsk republic’s leader accused Kiev of trying to
restart the war.
The
order to launch the offensive was issued early approximately at 6:00
am, according to Yury Biryukov, an aide to President Petro
Poroshenko.
“Today
we will show HOW good we are at jabbing in the teeth,” he
wrote on his Facebook
page,
a mode of conveying information favored by many Ukrainian officials.
In
a later post he said: “They
are now striking a dot. Uuu…” in
a reference to Tochka-U (‘tochka’ means ‘dot’ in Russian), a
tactical ballistic missile, one of the most powerful weapons Ukraine
so far deployed against rebel forces.
“That
wasn’t a dot but ellipsis. Strong booms,” he dded.
Reports
from the ground confirmed a sharp escalation of clashes across the
front line, with particularly heavy artillery fire reported at
Gorlovka.
“Locals
in Donetsk said they haven’t heard such intensive shelling since
summer,” Valentin
Motuzenko, a military official in the self-proclaimed Donetsk
People’s Republic, told Interfax news agency.
“The
Ukrainian military are using all kinds of weapons, Grad multiple
rocket launchers, mortars…”Motuzenko
said.
A
source at the site told RT that a group of OSCE monitors have
demanded that the Ukrainian military stop the shelling. The source
added that there is a danger that the group may itself come under
artillery fire.
A picture shows a building destroyed
by shelling in eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk on January 18, 2015
(AFP Photo / Aleksander Gayuk)
READ
MORE: OSCE identifies direction of deadly Donbass bus rocket
Aleksandr
Zakharchenko, who was elected in November the prime minister of the
self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has accused Kiev of
using the ceasefire to regroup their troops and boost their
armaments, and now of trying to restart the all-out war.
“It’s
clear that Kiev is making an attempt to take revenge for the serious
military defeat it took from the militia last year,” he
added. “Kiev
always ignored our numerous suggestions to pull back heavy weapons
from the disengagement line.”
“At
the moment, we are aware of five civilians killed,” the
Donetsk administration said, adding that the shelling of the city by
Ukrainian forces is still under way.
Several
residential buildings, a shop and a bus station have been seriously
damaged by artillery fire in the city, RIA Novosti reported.
The
Putilovsky Bridge, which is located near the Donetsk airport, has
also been destroyed in the shelling, RT’s Roman Kosarev reported
from the scene.
There
were also reports of attacks on the town of Makeevka and several
nearby villages.
The
militia added that at least one shell hit a residential area in
central Donetsk rather than the outskirts of the city.
Two
people have died and 16 other received injureies after a Ukrainian
shell exploded at bus station in city of Gorlovka, the press service
of the People’s Republic of Donetsk said.
Several
buildings in the city also suffered direct hits during the
bombardment, including four schools and a kindergarten, the press
service added.
Witnesses
said that Kiev used aviation in the assault, with Sukhoi Su-24
warplanes jets seen in the air above Gorlovka.
The
ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of Donetsk
(DPR) has called upon the international community to address the
worsening of the situation in southeast Ukraine and “make
every effort to stop unpunished mass murder in the heart of Europe."
“The
People’s Republic of Donetsk again suffered a treacherous and
large-scale attack from Ukraine,”which
is aimed at the destruction of the republic’s population and
infrastructure, Aleksandr Kofman, DPR foreign minister, said in a
statement.
The
actions of the Kiev forces in Donetsk Region “bear
all characteristics of serious war crimes,”Kofman
said.
Moscow
is seriously concerned by the by the renewal of shelling of
residential areas of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk by Kiev
forces, the Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov,
said.
Ukrainian city of Donetsk on January
18, 2015 (AFP Photo / Aleksander Gayuk)
The
actions of the Ukrainian military in no way promote the settlement of
the conflict between Kiev and the eastern regions, he said.
"Of
course, the stance of the Russian side will be expressed. Of course,
it involves serious concerns over the resumption of full scale
warfare in Donetsk, including shelling of populated residential
areas. And, of course, such a state of affairs doesn’t promote the
fulfillment of the Minsk agreements [from September 5] and the
further search for a peaceful solution,” Peskov
told Govorit Moskva radio station.
The
escalation comes after several days of violent clashes at the ruins
of the Donetsk International Airport, a scene of constant fighting
over the months of shaky ceasefire between Kiev’s troops and local
militia forces.
The
militia, who have accused the Ukrainian military of launching
constant attacks on Donetsk from their positions at the airport,
reported taking over the location this week. Kiev denied this report.
The
Ukrainian Security and Defense Council confirmed the resumption of
hostilities and that Kiev's objective was to recapture the airport.
Kiev
launched it's retaliation days after President Poroshenko ordered a
new wave of mobilization into the country’s armed forces. The
government plans to hold at least three conscription campaigns over
2015 to sustain its military operations in the east.
The
escalation of violence comes after a controversial incident at Kiev’s
checkpoint near the town of Volnovakha, where 12 passengers were
killed on Tuesday. Kiev blamed the deaths on the militia, saying it
was hit by a Grad rocket. The DNR forces denied the accusations and
said the bus was targeted by the Ukrainian troops themselves –
either in a tragic incident or as a staged provocation – and said
the damage visible in the picture of the bus is consistent with a
less powerful weapon, possibly a landmine.
An
OSCE observer team studied
blast craters near
the checkpoint and confirmed the direction they came from. Russia’s
permanent representative to the OSCE, Andrey Kelin, said the
direction runs along the disengagement line separating militia- and
Kiev-controlled areas, which makes it difficult to determine who
fired the rockets. The observers did not identify the type of
rockets used.
Novorussia
SITREP: Intensive combat operation all over the line of contact in
Novorussia
18 January, 2015
Things
look very bad today and very intensive combat operations, in
particular artillery strikes, are reported everywhere in
Novorussia. At the very least, in the following locations:
1)
Donetsk Airport: the Ukrainians attacked with a fairly large
concentration of armor and under heavy artillery fire. As for
tonight (local time) all of these attacks have been successfully
repelled but intelligences sources are reporting a sharp rise in the
number of tanks and armored vehicles all around the Donestk
airport. The Novorussians are expecting attacks from Peski and
Avdeevka.
2) The Ukrainian artillery has opened for almost
everywhere along the front. The Ukrainian airforce has also
dropped several 500kg bombs from high altitude on the city of
Gorlovka.
3) Novorussian units are returning fire and the
outskirts of Mariupol have come under Novorussian artillery
attacks.
4) The Chairman of the Novorussian Parliament, Oleg
Tsarev, has declared that his sources indicate that the Ukrainian
plan submitted to Poroshenko looked at a spectrum of options: the
best one was to totally free Novorussian from all Novorussians, the
minimal one was to cut-off Donetsk from Luganks and both of these
cities from the Russian border.
5) Plenty of US made weapons
have been recovered in the New Terminal of the Donestk airport.
6)
There are reports that the Ukrainian forces are attempting to
encircle Debaltsevo.
7) Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov has
declared that the Ukrainian side had rejected all Russian offers and
presented no counter-proposals. He concluded that the
Ukrainians have chose the option of going to war.
8) Please
click here for
an high res updated map of combats.
9) The Ukrainians are now
accusing the Novorussians of using "super-weapons" in
Peski. No, no nuclear devices (as the Ukie defense minister
claimed were used south of Lugansk), but heavy-flame throwers of
the Buratino
TOS-1 type.
The Ukies speak of a "bloodbath
in Peski"
which, as J.Hawk, the translator for ForRuss noticed, is a sure sign
of panic.
10) Initial
reports seem
to indicate the the Novorussian military has entered the town of
Peski.
11) The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of
the NAF, General Petrov, has declared that the Ukrainians have
resumed ballistic missile strikes and that several Tochka missiles
were fired today.
12) Zakharchenko has declared that "we
are now engaged in a heavy counter-attack operation from Mariupol to
Gorlovka".Evaluation:
It
appears certain is that Nazi junta as decided to resume combat
operations. Whether this is "an" attack or "the"
attack remains to be seen, but the fact that ballistic missiles and
bombers have been used seem to indicate that this one is
qualitatively different. My therefore leaning more towards the
"the" attack option.
The situation around the
airport has resulted in many poorly informed comments. The
following needs to be clarified.
a) The Donetsk airport has
zero military value other then being a heavily fortified location
near the city of Donetsk. The main importance of the airport
is symbolic as it was the place where by far the toughest and best
Ukrainian units were sent into combat.
b) I am pretty sure
that when the new terminal was taken over by the Novorussians (this
indisputable as there is *a lot* of footage of this even) the junta
generals grabbed their phone and began screaming into it demanding
an immediate and massive counter attack. This is what happened
today. According to Novorussian sources a total of 6 attack
waves were repelled and 15 Ukrainian MBTs used in the attempt to
retake the new terminal.
c) It is not surprising that this
attack failed. Heavily fortified objectives like the new
terminal cannot be taken by tank and artillery fire, though they can
be damaged by them. Such objective can only be taken by very
well trained and heavily armed infantry assault groups capable and
willing to fight in very dangerous and difficult conditions.
Such groups, often called "assault/storming groups" are
composed of experienced fighters which include machine-gunners,
demolition-sapper combat engineers, snipers, anti-tank weapons,
mortars, grenade-launchers, etc. These are not the kind of
units which the Ukrainians have a lot of, nor are these the kind of
units which can be trained in a few weeks or even a few months.
This is why the Ukrainian assault have failed and most likely will
continue to fail.
If this is indeed "the" much
expected Ukrainian attack, then it fully confirms what everybody has
been predicting: the Ukrainians are betting on large numbers of
tanks, armored vehicles, artillery pieces and infantrymen to
overwhelm the Novorussian defenders. This is a losing strategy
because not only will the by now highly experienced and combat
hardened Novorussians perform infinitely better than the terrified
and/or brainwashed Ukrainians with just a month or so of bootcamp
under their belts, but because the inevitable bloodbath resulting
from this kind of attack will rapidly break the willpower and morale
of the Ukrainian side.
The single most important
factor here is not whether the Ukrainians will lose, but whether the
Novorussians will be capable of winning without an over Russian
intervention to support them. My personal feeling is that yes,
the Novorussians will succeed in beating back the Ukrainian assault
and that Russia will not have to intervene openly (from what I hear
the Voentorg is
already working at full capacity, hence the TOS-1 in Peski).
I
have to confess that I am nervous when I see Zakharchenko, Givi and
Motorola at the very front lines quite literally within reach of the
Ukrainian assault rifles. I do fully understand why they feel
that they have to do that, but I also get a knot in my stomach when
I see them, especially all together a standing a few feet from each
other. If you are religious, please pray for these courageous
men.
The Saker
A
Grim and Fatalist Post-Holiday Sitrep for the Dream that Was
"NovoRossiya" and the People of the Donbass
by
Mark Sleboda
18
January, 2015
Russia
will obviously not allow the West-backed and installed Kiev regime to
conquer the rump "NovoRossiya" by military means. This
latest "offensive" of theirs will either peter out quickly
or will end very badly for them if it expands in the Spring.
But
the NAF is even less a coherent and organized force than the
UAF/batallions (and that's saying a lot because Kiev has very limited
control of its warlords and their death squads ie the "battalions)
- with no real offensive capability or logistics network. They are
only really a defensive force thus far, though it must be said
competent at that. The Kremlin, further, purposefully and when
necessary, brutally, weeds their leadership and retards their
supplies and growth to make sure they cannot become truly independent
of either Russia or Ukraine.
The
Kremlin has gone out of their way to prevent the NAF from seizing
even the rest of Donetsk or Lugansk Republics, letting them keep only
this tiny rump principality which is only a third of the territory of
the respective two Republics. They wouldn't even let the NAF take
Donetsk airport for over 7 months. This was obviously a signal to the
West of their limited intentions and an attempt to prevent the
conflict from spiraling into anything bigger. The West either appears
to have not gotten that message or completely ignored and taken
advantage of it. The people who truly suffered from this policy of
the Kremlin's are the people of Donetsk and the rank and file NAF.
They have hid and died under regular Putsch regime shelling directed
through the airport into the residential districts of the city since
the summer.
The
NAF being "let off the leash" and, after far more of a
struggle than it should have been, finally taking their own city's
airport tells us two things. First the Kremlin is growing frustrated
with both Kiev and the West as negotiations are going nowhere. This
is a signal of their discontent, but a very limited one in scope.
Second it is painfully obvious that the NAF without greater Russian
support than the Russian government has ever given them, or intends
to give them (whatever the hysteric and regular pronouncements from
Kiev or the Western MSM and governments to the contrary), has NO
offensive capability to speak of.
The
Kremlin has no intent to either annex Donetsk and Lugansk and take
economic responsibility for them and their people - nor to let them
expand and become independent. Novorossiya literally has NO economy
at all - nor do they have the ability to develop one without massive
outside investment which neither the Kremlin nor the West has any
intent of giving them. This is very important as NovoRossiya can
NEVER be independent nor is it even sustainable in the medium term
without one. There is literally NO money, no paying jobs, no economy.
Even the standard of life under Putsch neoliberal "austerity"
in Ukraine is far better at this point. The people of Donbass are
suffering and the vulnerable literally starving to DEATH, and they
cannot continue much longer like this.
The
NovoRossiya "project" was NOT dreamed up in the Kremlin. It
was an organic idea with historical roots that grew out of the
desires of the people of the Donbass to get out of the post-Maidan
Ukrainian madhouse and encouraged by various Eurasianist and
nostalgic-Imperial/Orthodox elements of Russian civil society.
Perhaps a few in the Kremlin inner circle of the more conservative
patriotic bent tried to pick it up and run with it for a while - but
it is obvious that for Putin it was never anything more than toy for
leverage with the West to force a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. A
"bad cop" approach. But it was never more than a bluff -
and it appears that the West has (correctly) called him on it -
whatever their public rhetoric on the matter to the contrary.
The
Kremlin is very set on forcing rump Donetsk and Lugansk back into
Ukraine at some point in the future under federalized conditions that
suit the Kremlin's interest and influence. That is no longer enough
in the minds of many of the NAF ranks or the people of Donetsk and
Lugansk, who, rightly, have no desire to being forced under the
Putsch rule or back in the same country with those who have been
indiscrimately massacring them in their homes and on their streets
for most of the last year (equivalent to asking the Kosovar Albanians
to go back to Serbia after being bombed into independence by NATO) -
but they may not have a real choice in the matter. The desires of the
people of Donbass and the NAF and the interests of the Kremlin widely
diverge on this. IMHO the Kremlin is playing a very cynical and
coldly pragmatic game with the people of the Donbass. It further says
a lot that they still prefer even that to rule or cleansing by Kiev.
Pity the people of Donbass that they are not Crimea. The sad truth is
that the people of Donbass want Russia much much more than the
Kremlin wants them...
The
Kremlin still keeps the NAF and NovoRossiya firmly under its leash.
They truly are not getting much support from the Kremlin beyond that
limited military aid assistance preventing them from being further
military conquered from Kiev - but they are completely dependent on
even that. The people of the Donbass are actually getting very little
in the way of economic/humanitarian aid either from the Russian
federal govt. The convoys are really a token effort only for PR
purposes, and represent only a tiny tiny fraction of what the people
of Donbass need or even are actually getting from Russia. The
majority of what they are getting comes mostly from either Russian
civil society (donations, organizations, the Church, and the Russian
Republic's local governments like Kadyrov) or from the native
oligarchs of the Donbass like Akhmetov who are still playing a
cautious double game to try to come out ahead when this is all over
and the dust settles.
The
ONLY hope for NovoRossiya to ever become a real "independent"
rump-state protectorate of Russia (like Ossetia, Abkhazia,
Transnistria) is from stupidly escalated and protracted military
attempts from Kiev to subjugate Donbass, directed and armed by the
West. But even then, after what has been going on for last half a
year, it is almost impossible to imagine the level of bloodshed and
carnage that would be necessary to push the Kremlin past the
threshold on that score. So, no, not much hope for the people of
"NovoRossiya" at all. Stillborn and still dying...
-------
Note
by The Saker:
Just
in order to avoid a deluge of misunderstandings, and even though I
often post articles I disagree with, I will spell it out again: I do
not share Mark's analysis of the situation, but he might be right and
I might be wrong. I therefore find it very important to give his
analysis as much visibility as possible. I am also personally
grateful to Mark for accepting that he and I have different views and
not turning that into a reason for personal hostility. I consider
Mark a friend. The Saker
A
Day of Battle and Sorrow: January 18 Summary of Events
1/19/2015 - Novorossia
News Summary for January 18, 2015
By
Cassad
http://news-mail.by/2015/01/19/novosti-novorossii-18-01-2015-itogi-dnya/
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
1.
The junta had lost the new terminal and, in spite of all the
attempts to reclaim it, has suffered a tactical defeat here. Today’s
attempt to strike at the junction between the village of Spartak and
the concentration of airport buildings turned into a battle at the
Putilovskiy bridge, where the breakthrough attempt was destroyed.
Novorossia Armed Forces (NAF) infantry, which has held the new
terminal for already a couple of days, with artillery support it
quite comfortably defeated junta attacks. Junta’s failure does not
mean that new such attempts will not occur over night or tomorrow.
2.
At the same time NAF launched an attack on Peski, penetrating
into the village and engaging in street battles, slowly but surely
advancing. The enemy is putting up desperate resistance, which means
that one cannot yet speak of full control over Peski. Both sides are
actively using tube and rocket artillery and are bringing up
reserves, which prevents a rapid resolution of the battle, which is
now one of attrition. Junta artillery near Peski, Avdeyevka, and
Krasnogorovka is coming under very heavy artillery strikes, as are
junta positions near Maryinka. The intermediate objective of this
effort is to reduce the intensity of bombardment of civilian areas.
Our forces reached the outskirts of Avdeyevka, which suggests the
village may be attacked overnight.
3.
DPR and LPR are heavily suffering from terror bombardments of
the fascist junta. Today Gorlovka suffered most of all, as enemy
shells hit not only the outskirts but the center. Casualty numbers
are still unknown, but it is likely to reach dozens. Enemy aviation
struck Gorlovka for the first time since summer, which indicates the
seriousness of junta’s intentions. Apart from shelling, the enemy
conducted reconnaissance by force in front of Gorlovka, which failed.
In spite of the high intensity of operations, the enemy has not
introduced new forces into battle.
4.
Neither side was successful in launching attacks in the vicinity
of the Bakhmutka road and Slavyanoserbsk, due to the high level of
artillery activity. Counterattack attempts toward Stanitsa Luganskaya
following failed junta attacks along that sector likewise had no
result, and the town is still held by the junta.
5.
In spite of superiority of forces around Mariupol, NAF has not
yet gone on offensive, preferring to shell enemy positions. Enemy
reserves are still held in depth due to fear of attack by NAF
mechanized forces.
6.
The very visible Voyentorg activity is based on foundations laid
down in November, when efforts were being made to increase the pace
of its activity, including the training of its “workers” and
fine-tuning of “instruments.” The pace of intensification was
being delayed due to political considerations, but as soon as
diplomacy reached its dead end which was evident after Milano [???],
it received a green light and Voentorg began to work at a pace
exceeding its August 2014 efforts. The preparations were not in vain,
as already in November it was clear that the events were leading to
war which, in spite of all the mantras to the contrary, will begin in
winter and not in the spring, since the US is not about to wait for
Putin to order Novorossia to surrender. Of course, those who observed
these preparations already in November could poke fun at all those
suggesting Putin was about to surrender Novorossia so it could join a
“unified pro-Russian Ukraine.” I think that many will now
understand my careful optimism in December-January. From the point of
view of military planning, junta’s current behavior was being
predicted since November. Warnings from DPR intelligence and defense
ministry, Strelkov, Petrovskiy, and others (aside from collection of
information through own channels) reached the “Voentorg leadership”
one way or another, and the leadership undertook practical measures
(some of which can be seen on Novorossia roads) to meet the possible
threat. Naturally, knowledge by itself does not provide a 100%
guarantee that countermeasures will be 100% effective (I heard
certain doubts concerning this point from quite competent
individuals), combat operations will show to what extent the threat
was anticipated by those whose job it was to anticipate.
7.
Naturally, the unfolding scenario is making it extremely
difficult to return to the Minsk or Normandy format, particularly
since the junta needed those formats only in the event it suffered a
military defeat, and the US likewise does not need to conduct
negotiations unless it has to. Therefore all attempts to steer the
situation toward a political resolution will be torpedoed by Kiev and
Washington. Russia did not want this scenario and strenuously tried
to avoid it (and, moreover, will try to put the toothpaste back into
the tube), but due to the circumstances and the insistent demands by
the “fortress of Good” it could not avoid it and therefore now it
has no choice but to win (by inflicting one or more defeats on junta
forces) because a military defeat in Novorossia is unacceptable to
Russia. One can only expect that as junta suffers defeats Russia will
experience sharply increased diplomatic and economic pressure.
We
can only wish NAF fighters and Voentorg workers bravery and successes
in their battle against the fascist junta. They have a lot of work
ahead of them. I want to warn against any “cakewalk” talk, as the
struggle will be hard, prolonged, and bloody. One must not
underestimate the enemy. But Novorossia will not return under junta
rule.
Translator’s
Note: I suspect the reason for
the sudden Ukrainian return to military operations has less to do
with US preferences than with the fact time is really not on Kiev’s
side. The economy is tanking, default approaching, “partners”
disinterested in rendering financial assistance. The longer Kiev
waits, the greater the domestic unrest will become. Let’s not
forget the warnings by Semenchenko and other battalion commanders
that the troops are getting restless. Poroshenko desperately needs
the war in order to distract domestic opposition (from his own
stormtroopers, no less) and to help persuade foreign financial
institutions this government is still capable of exerting control
over Ukrainian territory. But that’s precisely why the war is so
dangerous to the junta—one major setback, and the house of cards
could well fall. It is not even clear how many forces Kiev still has
at its disposal, other than those that have already been committed to
battle. It's highly unlikely that the August 2014 losses had been
made good. Also, it’s remarkable that no Western pressure has been
exerted on Russia yet. While a few hard-liners here and there (e.g.,
Sweden’s former foreign minister Bildt) tried to raise alarm but so
far at least they have been studiously ignored. Ukraine fatigue has
set in and nobody knows what to do with the zombie state to the east
of Poland whose interaction with the West consists of incessant
begging for money, weapons, and sanctions against Russia, while
failing to offer any financial benefit for its Western “benefactors.”
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