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Christchurch
will cost National the Election
There
are three things that will cost National the election in 2014 (or
earlier).
The
first is jobs. The Market is simply not creating new jobs as
neo-liberal dogma dictates it should. And with National’s Hands Off
policy in the economic, their 2011 promise to create 170,000 new jobs
(see: “Budget
2011: Govt predicts 170,000 new jobs” ) is something that will
be used to beat them over the head more and more as Election Day
looms.
The
economy. A Hands Off policy in good times, when unemployment is low
and growth is reasonably good, can be expected and understood.
In
bad times though, taking your hands of the economic tiller poses one
question; if government doesn’t act proactively (as other
governments are doing around the world) – then what is the point of
having a government?
And
lastly, events with education-related problems will remain an open,
painful sore for the Nats. Whether it’s the quasi-privatisation of
education through dodgy “Charter Schools”; the unrelenting
Novopay cock-up; or proposed closures/amalgamations of 19 schools in
Christchurch – this will be an on-going sign for the public (and
voters) that National does not have the co-operation of the community
and can ride rough-shod over people’s concerns.
As
Colin Espiner wroter in Christchurch’s “The Press” on 19
January,
.
“The
secret to great comedy, they say, is timing, and if “they” are
right, then this Government is not very funny.
With
Friday looming as the second anniversary of the most devastating of
the Christchurch earthquakes, Education Minister Hekia Parata’s
school closures announcement could not have come at a worse time.
I
don’t think anyone who wasn’t in the city on that day can truly
appreciate the impact it had on the people of Christchurch, and
continues to have to this day. Certainly Hekia Parata doesn’t.
I
accept that in the wake of the quakes some decisions about the future
of schooling in Christchurch needed to be made. Actually I think
everyone accepts that.
I
also accept that some of those decisions won’t be popular, but
needed to be made. As John Key said yesterday, “the Government
needs to address this issue for the long-term good of the community”.
But
there are ways and means of doing something that isn’t going to be
pleasant. Dentists use anaesthetic before drilling a hole in your
tooth. And they warn you beforehand.
The
manner in which this Government has approached the issue of
Christchurch’s post-quake schooling has been woeful. Actually,
that’s being too kind. It’s been careless, haphazard, unfeeling
and downright incompetent.”
.
After
a while “strong government” becomes arrogant, uncaring
government. And that’s when voters rebel.
A
recent IPSOS/Fairfax poll, which showed a drop in support for the
Nats at 44.9% (1.3% points down on their previous poll in
December) made this interesting obserservation;
”
With the election
probably still at least 18 months away, the big battleground will be
for undecided voters, who made up 11.1 per cent of those surveyed.
Pollster
Duncan Stuart said a breakdown of undecided voters suggested many
were “soft” National supporters, who had started looking around.
“
In
other words, we are seeing a re-play of the final two years of the
Shipley-led National administration, in 1998 and 1999, when public
odium because so strong that voters couldn’t stampede fast enough
to the Ballot Booths to vote for Labour and the Alliance. There is
only so much “hands off” government the Middle Classes will
tolerate before their ‘comfort zone’ is breeched.
In
the late ’90s, the ‘touch paper’ was health.
This
time it will be jobs and education.
After
two major earthquakes; a loss of 185 lives; thousands of homes and
businesses damaged or destroyed; upheavals in peoples’ lives;
increasing numbers of homeless living rough; slow processing of
insurance claims; and many who have simply quit the quake-ravaged
city – the current agenda from National, and implemented by Hekia
Parata, is like a rolling, political slow-quake, of additional stress
on the city.
Cantabrians
must be looking skyward and beseeching the Heavens, “What have we
done wrong to earn all this?”
That
stress is leading to desperation and behaviour that in other, saner
times, good people might never think of doing,
The
stress on families, teachers, and others in areas targetted for
school closures/amalgamations must be phenomenal.
New
Zealanders watching all this, up and down the country, must be
secretly sighing relief that they aren’t the one’s in the firing
line of Christchurch’s twin curses of natural disaster and
political upheaval.
Yesterday
(19 February) National electorate-MP, Nicky Wagner stated on Radio
New Zealand,
.
“The
National MP for Christchurch Central, Nicky Wagner, accepts she may
lose votes as a result of the education overhaul. But she says she
believes the right decisions are being made. The MP won her seat with
a majority of just 47 votes.
She
said,
‘‘
We need to make really good decisions for Christchurch. We need to
make good decisions in education but in all other ones and to make
the most of every opportunity, and personally if it’s a matter
between a good decision and being voted in again I’d take the good
decision any day.’’ “
Source:
Radio NZ, 10pm news bulletin, 19 Feb 2013
.
Ms
Wagner’s nonchalence in losing her seat in favour of
taking a “good decision any day” may come true sooner than she
anticipated.
Cantabrians
will be happy to assist.
.
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