Inside China’s Desperate Effort To Control Pollution — Before It’s Too Late
BY
ARI PHILLIPS
26
November, 2013
If
James Carville was giving the Chinese government public relations
advice, he might say something like, “It’s the pollution,
stupid.” But this wouldn’t be anything the Chinese government
doesn’t already know. When eight-year-olds start getting lung
cancer that can be attributed to air pollution, you’ve got a
problem. When smog forces schools, roads, and airports to shut down
because visibility is less than 50 yards, you’ve got a problem.
When a study finds that severe pollution is slashing an average of
five-and-a-half years from the life expectancy in northern China,
you’ve got a problem.
Such
a visible problem, literally, can lead to myopic responses in a
frantic effort to make it appear that the problem is being
confronted. For instance, last month the Chinese central government
announced it will start publishing a list of its 10 worst — and
best — cities for air pollution each month. But underneath all the
haze, the seeds of a real transition are taking root. In July, the
government said it would spend $275 billion through 2018 to reduce
pollution levels around Beijing. Last month Shanghai released its
Clean Air Action Plan in an effort to rapidly and substantially
improve the air quality in China’s most populous city of nearly 24
million residents.
The
Chinese government is not stupid and neither are China’s 1.35
billion residents — they can all see that pollution is a real
problem. Earlier this month, Chinese communist party leaders convened
a major plenary meeting to discuss economic reform, with over 200
party members gathering at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th
Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in Beijing,
or third plenum. Plenums are significant because every member of the
party must be present and this year, energy and environmental issues
were on the agenda. Third plenary sessions have been met with high
anticipation ever since the 11th Third Plenary Session in 1978 led to
the structural reforms ushered in by Deng Xiaoping and the ensuing
three decades of rapid growth that have turned China into the
export-driven, world power it is today.
The
economy has slowed, and China is confronting the cumulative
consequences of its three-decade focus on economic expansion with
little attention paid to mounting ecological and social costs.
But
that sustained economic boom also led to a bust for the environment.
R. Edward Grumbine, a senior international scientist in the Key Lab
of Biodiversity and Biogeography at Kunming Institute of Botany,
wrote in Yale360 that as the 18th Plenum ended, China’s new
President, Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Li Keqiang find their
country at a critical crossroads.
“The
economy has slowed, and China is confronting the cumulative
consequences of its three-decade focus on economic expansion with
little attention paid to mounting ecological and social costs,”
Grumbine wrote.
Grumbine
thinks that the plenum may one day be seen as the turning point
marking China’s shift away from unbridled economic growth to a more
balanced form of development.
“One
thing is certain: China’s leadership is now feeling intensifying
public pressure to do something about the environment. A growing
number of China’s 1.35 billion people — especially those in the
rapidly expanding middle class — are fed up with government
inaction on environmental issues,” Grumbine wrote.
Key
Environmental Issues
Take
water for instance. Half of China’s rivers — about 28,000 —
have vanished since 1990. China also has about 1,730 cubic meters of
fresh water per person, just above the 1,700 cubic meter-level the UN
deems “stressed.” In the north, where half of China’s people,
most of its coal, and only 20 percent of its water are located, the
situation is even more dire. About 300 million rural residents do not
have access to safe drinking water, and 57 percent of urban
groundwater, a primary source of drinking water, is also polluted.
Coal
industries and power stations use as much as 17 percent of China’s
water, and by 2020 the government plans to boost coal-fired power by
twice the total generating capacity of India. According to British
Petroleum (BP), China will account for 25 percent of global growth in
energy demand through 2030. China’s 2012 energy mix was comprised
of 68 percent coal, 18 percent oil and five percent natural gas.
In
the past, China has been able to get away with ignoring environmental
concerns to achieve economic gain. But going forward, even as energy
demand grows along with the growing middle-class, it’s becoming
increasingly clear that a more holistic approach will be necessary.
Not only because of public opinion, but because of real environmental
constraints, such as the water needed to produce coal-fired power.
And that’s before even considering the impact of climate change, in
which higher temperatures, sea-level rise, and more intense natural
disasters make everything that much worse. China is also the world’s
biggest greenhouse gas emitter — putting it again at the fulcrum of
economic and environmental concerns, in this case not only
domestically, but internationally, as well.
According
to the International Energy Agency’s recently released World Energy
Outlook report, current projections show that energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions will rise 20 percent by 2035. Setting the world on
a trajectory consistent with a long-term average temperature increase
of 3.4 degrees Celsius, far above the internationally agreed-upon 2
degrees Celsius target. China has vowed to reduce its carbon
emissions per capita of GDP, known as emissions intensity, by 40–45
percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. The U.S. and China make up
more than 40 percent of global CO2 emissions.
A
lot of consumers are saying, ‘Who cares if I have a great job? Who
cares if I can buy a Louis Vuitton bag, if the air and water are
killing my family?’Recently on Marketplace Morning Report, Shaun
Rein, Managing Director of the China Market Research Group, spelled
out in simple terms why pollution is currently the biggest problem to
the Chinese economy.
“The
biggest fear or frustration in life today is the pollution levels in
China. A lot of consumers are saying, ‘Who cares if I have a great
job? Who cares if I can buy a Louis Vuitton bag, if the air and water
are killing my family?’” Rein said. “Pollution is the biggest
problem that’s facing China’s government today, and they really
need to do a better crackdown on it, otherwise they’re going to
face serious social instability going forward.”
Chris
Nielsen, executive director of the China Project at Harvard
University, told Climate Progress in an email that the Chinese
government has not simply ignored its environmental concerns and
focused only on economic growth.
According
to Nielsen, one famous indicator of China’s progress is the almost
constantly improving energy efficiency of China’s economy since
1949. “This path is partly due to modernization of its energy
economy, but since 2006 in particular, it has been supported by very
aggressive, target-driven policies to engender improved energy
efficiency, especially in industrial enterprises,” Nielsen said.
China
has also built the world’s biggest installed capacity of wind power
in the last decade and solar is now on a similar trajectory.
Additionally, it has the largest hydropower capacity in the world and
has dramatically increased imports and production of natural gas to
substitute for coal in key sectors such as household use.
“These
positive changes have been overwhelmed by negative changes in many
respects,” Nielsen said. “By far the most important of the
negative changes is a tremendous concomitant rise in the consumption
of coal to fuel the economy, which by itself cancels many of these
gains.”
Nielsen
noted that it’s important to understand that the Chinese government
is not monolithic — there are advocates for sacrificing economic
growth for environmental protection and there are powerful government
actors opposed to it. He thinks that the government is committed to
real change on environmental issues, and that the balance is probably
gradually tipping towards stronger environmental protection.
“However,
a time of slowing economic growth may not be the most hopeful time
for transformative changes to limit environmental damage,” Nielsen
said. “Fears about unemployment may limit the political willingness
to go that far. The entrenched power of state-owned enterprises,
which the Third Plenary appears to have addressed only weakly, will
likely continue to serve as a counterweight favoring economic growth
over aggressive environmental progress. “
The
“Ecological Red Line”
As
part of the recent third plenum, the government released a communique
that vowed to protect the country’s ecological environment, and
urged the drawing of an “ecological red line.”
Dr.
Xia Guang, director of the Policy Research Centre for Environment and
Economy under the Ministry of Environmental Protection, wrote that
“red lines” would not only refer to geological areas that were
off-limits to exploitation, but also better control the use of
natural resources and emissions of pollutants, including greenhouse
gases.
The
plenum resolution listed environmental protection for the first time
among the government’s five top responsibilities — behind
macroeconomic management, job creation, market supervision, and
social management.
In
China, what the central leadership wants is often not what local
governments deliver. Economic incentives drive local government
decisions even when the top-down leadership is pushing for reform.
On
top of developing specific mandates and implementation procedures to
help shift local government incentives, a crucial part of the
ecological red line will be public oversight and awareness —
otherwise, promises could end up being empty words, lip service to an
eager public.
“The
real number one barrier to environmental protection in China is not
lack of money or technology,” Ma Jun, one of the country’s
best-known environmental activists told the Christian Science Monitor
last year. “It is lack of motivation. We need the public to provide
that motivation. But they must be informed before they can
participate in any meaningful way.”
Environmental
agencies in China are hamstrung by local officials who put economic
growth ahead of environmental protection.
“We
have the laws and regulations, but enforcement remains very weak,”
Ma continued. “Environmental agencies in China are hamstrung by
local officials who put economic growth ahead of environmental
protection; even the courts are beholden to local officials, and they
are not open to environmental litigation.”
Some
of this can be accomplished though incentives or punitive actions,
such as with a carbon trading scheme. This week, in the midst of the
19th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
China’s top climate official made the well-timed announcement that
Beijing and Shanghai will launch emissions trading markets later this
month. The Chinese government has approved seven pilot carbon trading
exchanges in total, with Shenzhen being the first to launch in June.
The
markets will “play a very significant role” in China’s efforts
to reduce its carbon emissions, Xie Zhenhua, vice director of the
National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic
planning agency, said at the U.N. climate conference.
As
for public oversight, China has also recently made strides in this
direction with the announcement that the government will begin
measuring not just PM2.5 concentrations, but also the long-term
impacts of chronic air pollution on human health. This is important
because, much like the government has announced plans to shame the
most polluted cities by listing them every month, the public can
shame the government if the data doesn’t show improvements in air
quality, making it harder for the powers-that-be to hide behind a
veil of smoke.
How
Will China Find The Energy?
Addressing
environmental concerns would be much easier if they weren’t so
closely tied not only to economic growth but also energy consumption.
Going into the plenum, expectations were high that President Xi, in
office for just under a year, would be a reformer and usher in major
changes, including how China gets its energy.
China
relies on coal for nearly 70 percent of its energy production, but is
currently aggressively pursuing natural gas based on increased
availability and improved environmental sustainability over
coal-fired power plants, especially in regard to local air pollution.
General Electric stated in a white paper that China could save $820
billion in environmental costs by 2025 by doubling its current
natural gas consumption at the expense of coal.
The
full Third Plenary decision — a 30-page, 60-point document — was
released after the conference. Melanie Hart, Senior Policy Analyst
for China Energy and Climate Policy at the Center for American
Progress, told Climate Progress that, “the plenum language on
market prices is a win for China’s energy sector.
Chinese Communist
Party leaders have officially signed off on the price reforms that
China’s energy bureaucrats have been tinkering with over the past
year.”
A
Center For American Progress translation of part of the decision
reads: “All prices that can be determined by the market should be
turned over to the market, and the government should not engage in
improper interference. Drive forward price reform in sectors such as
water, petroleum, natural gas, electricity, transport, and telecom;
open up and allow competition to determine prices.”
There
are strong vested interests in China benefiting from sub-market,
state-mandated rates for electricity, natural gas, and other energy
inputs. Shifting toward a more market-based system will not be easy.
“Now the big question is implementation,” Hart said. “Price
tinkering at the margins is one thing.
Completely removing state
controls is another. There are strong vested interests in China
benefiting from sub-market, state-mandated rates for electricity,
natural gas, and other energy inputs. Shifting toward a more
market-based system will not be easy. It will have to be done,
however, if Beijing wants to come anywhere near achieving that
nation’s ambitious energy and climate goals.”
According
to Hart, Chinese leaders have seen what natural gas is doing for the
United States, and they want the same for their nation.
“The
problem is, to really ramp up natural gas production and use in
China, they can’t just throw money at the problem,” Hart said.
“The only way Chinese energy companies can bring in more natural
gas is to import more supplies from the international market or
invest in domestic shale gas production. Both are costly business
models, and neither pays off when the selling price is capped.”
Opening
the energy industry to the international market will also mean good
things for renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Last
week, the Chinese Bureau of Energy released a draft of proposed solar
power installations for China in 2014 that said new solar
installations in China are expected to reach 12 gigawatts. This is a
record, and a good indicator for solar power in China and
internationally. Recently China’s solar industry, which was built
around cheap exports, has been ailing due to a glut of supply and
accusations of market manipulation.
In
the last few years, the Chinese government, under pressure to do
something about pollution and struggling domestic solar companies,
has put a renewed emphasis on domestic solar.
Last
week, state media reported Chinese premier Li Keqiang as saying that
China will open its energy conservation and environmental protection
industries to foreign and private investment. Li’s remarks further
enforce the evidence that China is ready to move away from the
massive government subsidies that created national champions in wind
in solar that have been criticized as protectionist.
China
can gain huge economic advantage by continuing to dominate the market
for these energy technologies. Analysts have forecast that the global
market for low carbon technology will reach $1.5 to $2.7 trillion
annually in 2020. A separate UNEP report projected that by 2030,
there would be 8.4 million jobs in solar photovoltaic and wind
energy, and 12 million in biofuels, globally.
China’s
Problems Are The World’s Problems, Their Solutions Are The World’s
Solutions
China’s
economic and environmental policies have an outsized effect on the
world. China has long been the most populous nation on the planet,
and now it is an economic powerhouse and leading greenhouse gas
emitter. China’s government needs to balance a population who’s
growing awareness of local environmental issues is pushing up against
a massive, energy-devouring push towards urbanization and improved
quality-of-life. As China’s living standards approach those of the
West, so do the demands of its citizens. If the 20th century was the
American century, the 21st century might very well be the Chinese
century.
According
to Paul Joffe, Senior Foreign Policy Counsel at World Resources
Institute, China has a number of self-interested reasons to confront
energy and environmental issues beyond pollution control and
renewable energy market share. For instance, domestic agriculture
could be adversely affected by climate change. By 2030, overall crop
productivity in China could decrease by five to ten percent if no
action is taken.
China
also views climate change as an issue where it can show positive
leadership, especially among developing nations.
In
an interview with Climate Progress, Joffe said that China can lead
the way not only in renewable energy technology, but also other areas
such as fuel efficiency standards in cars and smart grid
implementation.
The
U.S. and China make up more than 40 percent of global CO2 emissions.
This
year China and the U.S. have hashed out a number of areas where they
can work together towards common diplomatic goals.
At
a G-20 summit in September, presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping
announced that they would seek to eliminate potent greenhouse gases
through the 1987 Montreal Protocol. At a June summit in California,
the two leaders agreed to work together to phase down the consumption
and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) — substitutes for
ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and GHGs. And in July, the
U.S.-China Climate Change Working Group submitted a report to the
U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) proposing five
new action initiatives involving transportation, smart grids, carbon
capture, utilization, and storage, energy efficiency, and data
transparency.
As
further indication of the importance of confronting domestic and
international environmental issues for two biggest economies in the
world, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina
McCarthy will be heading to China in early December to meet with
officials. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will also be traveling to
China, Japan, and South Korea in the first week of December. Biden
will not be focusing on environmental issues in China, but issues
such as trade and human rights are expected to come up, which include
environmental elements.
“The
misperception that China is not acting should no longer be seen as a
reason for inaction by the U.S. or any other country,” Joffe said.
“This misperception is fed in part by looking only at the
environmental problems China is facing, while ignoring positive
developments. China faces very significant environmental challenges,
but it is also taking important steps to address climate change.”
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