Posts
Looming
Danger of Abrupt
Climate Change
26
December, 2013
The
National Research Council of the National Academies (NRCNA) has
pre-published (available to the public as of Dec. 2013), an extensive
200-pg study: “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change, Anticipating
Surprises.”
The
goal of the report is to prepare society to anticipate the ‘otherwise
unanticipated’ before it occurs, including abrupt changes to the
ocean, atmosphere, ecosystems and high latitude regions. The NRCNA
timescale for “abrupt climate change” is defined as
years-to-decades.
“The
history of climate on the planet— as read in archives such as tree
rings, ocean sediments, and ice cores— is punctuated with large
changes that occurred rapidly, over the course of decades to as
little as a few years,” Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change,
Anticipating Surprises, (Prepublication Version), National Research
Council of the National Academies, The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C., December 2013.
U.S.
intelligence agencies, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the National
Academies sponsored the NRCNA report. The National Academies consists
of: the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research
Council.
The
NRCNA report mentions three primary areas of risks of abrupt climate
change this century, as follows:
Arctic
Sea Ice- Abrupt Climate Change Already Underway
According
to the NRCNA analysis, the rapid decrease of Arctic sea ice over the
past three decades is likely to have irreversible impact on the
Arctic ecosystem. This event of “abrupt climate change” is
already in motion, disrupting the marine food web, habitat of
mammals, erosion of coastline, and shifts in climate and weather
patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This has already been
witnessed via 100-year floods and severe embedded droughts as well as
bouts of extreme weather conditions throughout the hemisphere.
Interestingly,
the report does not focus on the danger of an abrupt release of
methane in the Arctic on a near-term basis. Rather, the NRCNA report
discounts an abrupt outbreak of methane release, believing this will
stretch out over a long period of time, unlikely this century.
However,
there is a wide range of scientific opinion about the Arctic methane
issue, and another more portentous position is described in the
following article: Saving the Global Climate from Runaway Arctic
Methane Release and Sea Ice Loss, John B. Davies, Arctic News, Dec.
19, 2013, as follows: “The warming of the Arctic seems likely to
lead to the total melting of the Arctic Sea Ice in late summer no
later than the summer of 2018 and to massive release of Methane from
the melting of Methane Hydrates beneath the ESAS [Eastern Siberian
Arctic Shelf] by the same date leading to runaway Global Warming and
the end of most life of earth.”
That
stark forecast by John B. Davies is supported by some of the world’s
most recognized minds in the field of Artic sea ice, such as, Peter
Wadhams, PhD (Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group, University of
Cambridge), who has, since 1976, accurately measured Arctic ice
thickness by way of submarines (Submarine-based Science in the Arctic
{Peter Wadhams}, Oceans 2025 Science Meeting, May 11-13, 2010.)
Obviously,
Davies’ call for “the end of most life of earth” is a very
rambunctious, gutsy forecast. As well, it is very difficult to accept
the idea of the possibility of the end of most life. Situations like
that simply do not happen… or do they?
Yes,
they do.
As
explained in the film: The
Day the Earth Nearly Died,
BBC / Horizon, December 2002, it did happen 250 million years ago.
Almost every living thing suddenly died. Geological studies show that
95% of life forms perished. Scientists call it the Permian Mass
Extinction, which was far more terrible than the later extinction
that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, killing off 60% of
all species on the planet. It took 100,000 years for the earth to
recover.
Extinctions
certainly do happen.
A
new film examines how close we may be: Last Hours (Sept. 2013)
presented by Thom Hartmann; producers – George DiCaprio, Earl Katz
and Mathew Schmid; director – Leila Conners. The film byline says:
“Underground, underwater and below the ice, a time bomb is ticking.
Scientists are seeing the evidence. Runaway climate change could be
closer than we think.”
And,
the Bible discusses extinction in Isaiah 24:4-6:
“The
earth dries up and withers… the exalted of the earth languish…
for they have transgressed the laws, violated the statutes and broken
the everlasting covenant. Therefore a curse consumes the earth; its
people must bear their guilt.”
Regardless
of belief in how, when, or if an extinction event will occur, the
evidence is inconvertible that carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the
atmosphere are the highest in over 400,000 years and on a path that
is eerily similar to past extinction events. It is also widely
accepted that burning fossil fuels cause excessive amounts of CO2.
Ergo, knowing that, what is the way forward? What to do?
There
is no worldwide plan on how to move forward to avoid an extinction
event.
Thus,
when/if it happens, it will truly be the result of an unanticipated
abrupt climate change.
Marine
and Terrestrial Life
The
National Research Council of the National Academies’ report also
foresees eventual mass extinction of several species, sans further
climate change, due to habitat destruction, fragmentation, and
over-exploitation. This, they claim, would be equivalent in magnitude
to the wipe out of the dinosaurs, but it would probably be centuries
away.
However,
the report goes on to warn, if the ongoing pressures of climate
change continue, comparable levels of extinction could occur before
the year 2100. So, in plain English, if humankind continues burning
fossil fuels like crazy over the next several decades, it’s lights
out for many of the planet’s species.
Furthermore,
according to the NRCNA report, climate change alone could cause a
“crash of coral reefs” as early as 2060. As it goes, coral reefs
support nine million marine species. As such, this part of the NRCNA
analysis dovetails with a massive loss of species by 2100.
Indeed,
as for supporting evidence outside of the NRCNA report, several
published scientific peer-review papers have already reported early
stage destructive signs of ocean acidification (caused by too much
CO2) deteriorating marine life, e.g., “… nearly all marine life
forms that build calcium carbonate shells and skeletons studied by
scientists thus far have shown deterioration due to increasing carbon
dioxide levels in seawater,” Dr. Richard Feely and Dr. Christopher
Sabine, Oceanographers, Carbon Dioxide and Our Ocean Legacy, Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, April 2006.
Once
again, in the ocean, as well as on the land, excessive carbon dioxide
(CO2) is the problem.
Reiteratively,
there is no worldwide plan on how to move forward to avoid an
extinction event.
As
a consequence, except for a few scientists, the world community will
be shocked by the carnage because nobody anticipates it really
happening. Otherwise, the governments of the world would be furiously
working on solutions, but they are not.
Scientists
have been publishing ominous reports for years in vain because they
have not been taken seriously enough to prompt corrective action, as
for example, a wholesale switching from fossil fuels to renewables,
like wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, wave, and hydro.
Destabilization
of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Antarctica
contains 85% of the world’s ice.
The
NRCNA Committee acknowledges big uncertainties about the status of
the stabilization of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS), and “…
the Committee judges an abrupt change in the WAIS within this century
to be plausible, with an unknown although probably low probability.”
The
NRCNA report further states: “… a large part of the West
Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS), representing 3-4 m [10-13 feet] of
potential sea-level rise, is capable of flowing rapidly into the deep
ocean basins. Because the full suite of physical processes occurring
where ice meets ocean is not included in comprehensive ice-sheet
models, it remains possible that future rates of sea-level rise from
the WAIS are underestimated, perhaps substantially.”
In
that regard, the Pine Island Glacier, as part of the WAIS, is a
37-mile long ice tongue. It is of utmost interest to climate
scientists because it has a greater net contribution of ice to the
sea than any other ice drainage basin in the world. For decades it
was considered too dangerous and too remote to explore. Only
recently, in 2012-13, a team of climate scientist accomplished
exploration of the massive glacier.
During
that expedition, the ice melt below the Pine Island Glacier was
detailed by the Naval Postgraduate School, Dept. of Oceanography,
(Monterey, California) in tandem with Penn State University, NASA,
the British Antarctic Survey, and New York University. Their results
were published in the Journal of Science on Sept. 13, 2013.
According
to Timothy Stanton, oceanographer at the Naval Postgraduate School,
“This is the first observation of the actual melt rate underneath
the ice shelf,” Ibid.
Using
hot water drills to penetrate the 1,460-foot thick ice shelf, they
discovered the warming ocean water is eating away at the underside of
the ice shelf at the rate of 72 feet per year in the middle of the
channels. Furthermore, the scientists calculate the melt at the
“grounding line” to be 144 feet per year.
Considering
the fact that the ocean has been absorbing 90% of the earth’s heat
(Source: Journal of Geophysical Research), the question of the day
is: How long will Pine Island Glacier remain stable? If it
destabilizes, Miami is in trouble, as well as all major coastal
cities.
Once
again, in the ocean as well as on the land, excessive carbon dioxide
(CO2) is the problem.
Once
more, there is no worldwide plan on how to move forward to avoid
abrupt climate change.
With
one exception, Scotland, which country currently generates 40% of its
electricity from renewables, wind, solar, hydro, and wave. The
country plans to go 100% green in 2020. H-m-m, an entire country
powered by 100% renewable energy!
Conclusion:
Surprises Inevitable
“Lacking
concerted action by the world’s nations, it is clear that the
future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall
patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered… The current
rate of carbon emissions is changing the climate system at an
accelerating pace, making the chances of crossing tipping points all
the more likely… surprises are indeed inevitable,” Abrupt Impacts
of Climate Change, Anticipating Surprises, (Prepublication Version),
National Research Council of the National Academies, The National
Academies Press, Washington, D.C., December 2013.
Everybody,
sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences.
(Robert
Louis Stevenson – Scottish Essayist, Poet, Author, 1850-1894)
Postscript:
Good News- Solar Storage Plant Gemasolar Sets 36-Day Record 24/7
Output, by Emma Fitzpatrick, Reneweconomy, Oct. 8, 2013: The
Gemasolar, a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) facility, is the world’s
first large scale power plant that uses molten salt to capture heat
during the day so it can produce energy at night. The plant can
operate up to 15 hours without any solar feed. For 36 days straight
the plant continuously provided power to 27,000 homes near Seville,
Spain while avoiding emissions of 30,000 tones of CO2.
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