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May Marks 8th Consecutive Record Hot Month in NASA’s Global Temperature Measure
14
June, 2016
According
to NASA,
the world has just experienced another record hot month.
May
of 2016 was the warmest May since record keeping began for NASA 136
years ago. It is now the 8th record hot month in row. In other words,
since October, every month has been the hottest such month ever
recorded (October vs October comparison, November vs November etc).
And May’s record is just the most recent high mark during a period
that has now vastly exceeded all previous measures for global
temperature tracking.
The
month itself was 0.93 C above NASA’s 1951-1980 baseline measure.
It’s the first month since October that readings fell below the 1 C
anomaly mark. A range that before 2015 had never before been breached
in the 136 year climate record and likely during all of the
approximate 12,000
year period that marks the Holocene geological epoch.
It’s
a reading that is fully 1.15 C above 1880s averages. A very warm
measure in its own right but one that is thankfully somewhat removed
from the 1.55 C monthly peak back during February of 2016. To this
point, it’s worth noting that hitting 1.5 C above 1880s temps in
the annual measure is the first major temperature break that
scientists consider to be seriously threatening to human civilization
and the life support systems of planet Earth. And we’re getting
close to that mark now. However, considering the fact that El Nino is
now transitioning toward La Nina, it appears that 2016 averages may
peak closer to 1.2 C.
May
Was Hot Pretty Much Everywhere
Geospatially,
hottest readings again centered near the Poles. Particularly, a
region of the Barents Sea experienced temperatures above 4 C hotter
than average for the month in the north. More disturbingly, in the
south, a region of 4 to 9.4 C above average readings dominated a
large zone over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. This
area is of particular concern due to numerous destabilized ice masses
that are now accelerating toward the Southern Ocean and that have the
ability to dramatically raise global sea levels over rather short
time intervals.
(Another
picture of a record warm month globally provided by NASA. This time,
highest above normal temperatures centered over the near polar
regions of the Barents Sea and the vulnerable and rapidly
destabilizing ice sheets of West Antarctica. Image source: NASA
GISS.)
Overall,
extents of above average readings covered most areas of the globe.
Exceptions included the North Atlantic cool pool southeast of
Greenland that has been prevalent now for the better part of two
years, a storm and trough related cool pool in the North Central
Pacific, and storm and trough related cool zones over the Central US,
Central Asia, and the Southern half of South America. Storms in these
regions generated record rainfall amounts over Texas, Argentina and
Russia during the month as global temperatures fell from El Nino
peaks and some of the record atmospheric moisture load was wrung out.
Analysis
of the May
Global Zonal Anomalies Map finds
that polar amplification dominated — resulting in peak temperature
readings in zones near 75 North and 75 South Latitude.
(Hot
poles, cooler, stormy mid-Latitudes is a sign that climate and
weather impacts related to human-caused climate change are starting
to ramp up. Image source: NASA
GISS.)
Cooler
readings in the mid 40s North Latitude and mid 50s South Latitude
indicates that the climate change related deep trough zones are
starting to get more fully involved (highlighted by various severe
and record flooding events occurring around the world during this
time).
As
climate change advances and global temperatures push toward the 2 C
mark, we can expect more heavy involvement in storm generation as the
Poles continue to more rapidly warm and as ice sheets speed
destabilization — generating the powerful regional climate
variations and greater atmospheric moisture loading that greatly amps
up peak storm potential energy.
Looks
Like 2016 is Settling into a Range near 1.2 C Above 1880s
On
the whole, the
first six months of the climate year starting in December have
averaged 1.36 C above 1880s readings.
A strong departure that the second half of the year will almost
certainly not repeat. Given current guidance along with a developing
transition to La Nina, temperatures should fall into a range between
0.95 and 1.15 C above 1880s for the second half of the climate year.
A
1.2 C annual 2016 departure is firmly within the range of estimates
for global temperatures that occurred within the Eemian climate
period around 115,000 years ago. At that time, global ocean levels
were between 16 and 25 feet higher than they are today. And if such
warm temperatures continue for any significant duration, we could
expect oceans to at least rise by as much (especially considering the
fact that about 15-20 feet worth of sea level rise is locked into the
ice of glaciers that are now in the process of heading into the
global ocean).
We’re
Well Behind the Curve in Providing Adequate Mitigations to a Rapidly
Worsening Climate Situation
Atmospheric
CO2 levels peaked at 407.7 parts per million in May as well.
A jump of about 3.8 parts per million above peak readings during May
of 2015. A new record that not only represents the highest levels of
atmospheric carbon ever experienced by human beings (and likely the
highest ever seen in the past 15 million years), but one that also
marks a record rate of accumulation. A combined overburden and
unprecedented rate of increase in heat trapping gasses that now
represents a very serious global hazard.
If
carbon dioxide levels were to remain so high we could expect global
temperatures to, over the course of 300-500 years, hit near 3 C above
1880s levels and oceans to rise by as much as 60-120 feet. Adding in
methane and other greenhouse gasses — current CO2 equivalent for
all global heating gas estimates are now in the range of 490 parts
per million. Enough to warm the Earth by about 4.6 C over hundreds of
years and to, among other things, eventually raise oceans by 120 t0
200 feet.
(Record
May temperatures coincided with record levels of atmospheric CO2. We
haven’t seen such high levels of CO2 since the Middle Miocene
Climate epoch — a period that occurred 15 million years ago. Image
source: The
Keeling Curve.)
Continued
human fossil fuel burning makes an already bad climate situation
worse. The rate of emission from human sources is
probably at least ten times faster than the build-up of heat trapping
gasses that set off the last hothouse mass extinction event — the
PETM —
about 55 million years ago. In addition, an Earth System response in
the range of 10-30+ percent of the human emission each year is
possible by the end of this Century. A dangerous amplifying feedback
whose emergence grows more likely the longer human beings continue to
add heat to the global atmosphere and ocean system.
May
of 2016, therefore, is just the most recent heat record along a path
toward an ever-worsening global climate situation. Current rising
rates of renewable energy and efficiency adoption do provide a
growing mitigation effort to combat the harmful systemic problem of
fossil fuel burning and a related very high rate of human carbon
emission. But the fact that we are, at best, looking at a
decades-long energy transition and an eventual dropping of the human
emission to near zero by 2030 to 2050, means that climate hazards
will continue to rise for some time to come (an absolute practical
best case will probably achieve 450 ppm CO2 and 550 ppm CO2e at peak
— very dangerous levels of heat trapping gasses that we’ll want
to reduce at the most rapid rates possible). In addition, serious
challenges both to the rate of energy transition and carbon emissions
cuts coming from various political and economic powers around the
world threaten to either push the time of hitting zero carbon
emissions back or to remove the possibility of such a necessary
mitigation altogether.
Links:
Hat
Tip to Kevin Jones
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