Posts
I shall add to this as things become clearer
The
All-Night Nailbiter: Results Come In And Suddenly Everything Turns
Around, Serling Tumble
Update
7:20 PM The
Sunderland results are in and it's a Leave tsunami with Leave
sweeping it away:
-
Remain:
51,930, or 39%
-
Leave
82,394, or 69%
On
the news sterling just imploded:
* *
*
Update
7:13 PM: Suddenly
Leave odds are surging
And
just like that, Leave's odds have more than doubled:
Update
7:00 PM: And
a shocker already from Newcastle. As we noted earlier, Newcastle was
supposed to have a comfortable 12 point leads for Remain. However,
moments ago the official results came out and while Remain did in
fact vote for Remain, it won by the smallest possible margin with 51%
voting to Remain and 49% voting to Leave, or 65,404 REMAIN vs 63,598
LEAVE.
As
noted, this was a far smaller victory than expected, and as a result
Sterling has tumbled nearly 200 pips from the session highs, and has
wiped out all intraday gains.
* *
*
Until
this point, it was all polling, hearsay, speculation and rumors. Now,
we finally have the first official results. We will update this post
with incremental data as long as a clear picture emerges.
The
first official result, Gibraltar, has been a whopping victory for
Remain with 19,322 voting to Remain and only 823 to leave.
Some
additional details from the BBC:
However
a small hiccup may have emerged in the expected Bremain steamrolling,
when moments ago the BBC said that Newcastle is shaping up as a
marginal win for Remain, which as BBC adds appears to be worse than
expected based on initial polls which had suggested a far stronger
showing for Remain.
And
the biggest surprise: moments ago Opinium may have flipped everything
on its head when moments ago it reported that Leave is 45% and Remain
is 44%:
Sterling
has lost 100 pips on the news, and ES was now only up 4.5 on the
session.
Remain:
51,930, or 39%
Leave
82,394, or 69%
Is there a ban on [Br]exit polling today?
23
June, 2016
The
official story is that the referendum taking place in the UK today
will not have exit polls, which are banned.
As
The Telegraph points out, however,
YouGov is carrying out on-the-day polling and will release its
results at 10:00 PM local British time. Here’s the explanation from
The Telegraph:
Will
there be an exit poll?
Technically,
no. An exit poll is conducted on a large scale outside polling
stations but broadcasters have no way of knowing how accurate an exit
poll would be as the last result they have to compare it to is the
1974 referendum. However, pollsters YouGov will be running an
on-the-day poll on June 23, the results of which will be announced at
10pm, once voting has closed.
If
you’re curious as to who YouGov is, here are the opening paragraphs
of the Wikipedia
entry on
them:
YouGov
is an international internet-based market research firm,
headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America,
the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.[2]
YouGov
was founded in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan
Shakespeare and Nadhim
Zahawi.
In April 2005, YouGov became a public company listed on
the Alternative
Investment Market of
the London Stock Exchange.[3]
Stephan
Shakespeare has been YouGov’s Chief Executive Officer since
2010.[4]Roger
Parry has
been YouGov’s Chairman since 2007. [5] Political
commentator Peter
Kellner was
YouGov’s President until he stepped down in 2016. [6]
YouGov
is a member of the British Polling Council.[7]
For
those too busy to use the links above, here’s the basic information
on YouGov’s founder Stephen Shakespeare (real name Stephan
Kukowski,
born in Germany of a German father who was the press liaison officer
for the British Army of the Rhine; Kukowski took his present surname
on marrying Rosamund Shakespeare), again fromWikipedia:
In
2012, Shakespeare was appointed as Chairman of the Data Strategy
Board (DSB), the advisory body that was set up by the government to
maximise value of data for users across the UK.[1] In
October 2012, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and
Cabinet Office ministers announced that he would lead an independent
review of Public Sector Information; the “Shakespeare Review: an
Independent Review of Public Sector Information” was published in
2013.[2] He
is currently a member of the Government’s Public Sector
Transparency Board[3] and
a trustee of the National Portrait Gallery, London.[4]
He
is the former owner of the websites ConservativeHome (now
owned by Lord
Ashcroft)
and PoliticsHome (now owned by Dods Parliamentary Communications Ltd)
which he launched in April 2008 after closing down his Internet
television channel 18
Doughty Street.
With
YouGov doing its on-the-day polling, it’s impossible to know where
exactly they’re doing their surveys, which of course makes
this much harder to pin down than a genuine exit poll.
Instead
of a properly run exit poll, on the day of the referendum which is to
decide its political future, the UK public is being fed information
from a survey carried out by a company founded by a German-born
Conservative who sits on a number of government boards and whose
company is conducting an in effect unofficial poll the details of
which cannot be tracked.
Isn’t
EU-style democracy a lovely thing indeed?
Farage Denies Conceding: "We Haven't Had A Single Bloody Vote Counted"; S&P Futures Surge
In a twist worthy of a
soap opera, just minutes after Sky and the major newswires reported
that Nigel Farage said "looks like Remain will edge it", a
Nigel Farage spokesman told Bloomberg that "he
never conceded. He looked at the prevailing weather and was honest.
We're not saying it's over. We haven't had a single bloody vote
counted", even
as just moments later, wires reported that Nigel Farage told the
Press Association he thinks Britain has voted to stay in the European
Union based on “what
I know from some of my friends in the financial markets who have done
some big polling”.
In any event, and Farage
is quite right about this - without a single vote counted - the
suspense over Brexit appears over, and reopening S&P futs were
spiked 13 points higher, hitting 2,119 and less than 1% from all time
highs.
Cable likewise jumped and
rose above 1.15 moments ago...
.. although it has since
trimmed some of its gains and was back under 1.15 at last check. As
Bloomberg adds, leveraged accounts that bought GBP just after U.K.
polls closed have trimmed positions after a post-voting survey sent
the currency higher, according to an Asia-based FX trader.
BBC
After
results in 15 counting areas out of 382, Remain was on 48.5% and
Leave on 51.5%, with Leave doing well in the North-East of England
and Remain ahead in Scotland.
Unlike
at a general election the results in individual areas do not count -
it is the overall number of votes cast for one side or the other
across the country that will determine the outcome.
Polling
expert Prof John Curtice said at this very early stage Leave looked
favourite to win the referendum. He estimates that the finishing post
for one side to win is 16,813,000 votes.
The
pound surged against the dollar when polls closed at 22:00 BST and
opinion polls pointed towards a Remain win but it fell dramatically
when the first results were declared.
Votes
are being counted at each of the 382 local counting areas. These
represent all 380 local government areas in England, Scotland and
Wales, plus one each for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.
Results
from these areas will then be declared throughout the night, along
with result totals from 11 nations and regions.
Jenny
Watson, chief counting officer, will announce the referendum result
at Manchester Town Hall after all 382 local totals have been
certified and declared.
Gibraltar
was the first to declare a result with 96% of voters in the British
overseas territory backing Remain. A big Remain win had been
predicted in Gibraltar amid concerns about its border with Spain.
Leave
won by 22% in Sunderland, but Remain edged it in neighbouring
Newcastle but by a tighter margin than expected, in two of the first
results to declare.
According
to Prof Curtice, the Remain vote is about 10% short of what was
expected in the North-East of England and although Remain is ahead in
Scotland, turnout is lower than in the rest of the UK.
Wales
appears to be leaning towards Brexit, with a vote of 54.9% for Leave
after four voting areas had declared.
Northern
Ireland, with five constituencies declared so far, is voting in
favour of Remain.
There
are no results so far from the Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber or
London and South East of England, where voting was disrupted by flash
flooding.
An
online survey taken on polling day of 5,000 people by YouGov suggests
the Remain side running at 52% of the vote, to Leave's 48%. Ipsos
Mori have released polling from Thursday and Wednesday suggesting
Remain will get 54% and Leave 46%.
UK
Independence Party leader Nigel Farage told the Press Association the
Remain camp had won based on "what I know from some of my
friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling".
In
a speech to supporters in London, Mr Farage - whose political career
has been built on campaigning to get the UK out of the EU - said his
"sense" was that the UK had voted to Remain.
He
told the cheering crowd he hoped he was wrong but added: "Win or
lose this battle, we will win this war, we will get this country
back."
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