Posts
Annual Average Extent 18—25 June
26
June, 2016
All
in all this little chart illustrates how we are well on our way to
the lowest year ever for Arctic sea ice extent:
For
the fresh follower of Arctic sea ice, this plot may seem strange and
even counter–intuitive. We're approaching high summer, and yet the
2013 graph is going up and up! What's up with that? Well, on June 25
2013 we had 10.2m km2 sea ice, while on June 25 2012 there was 9.5.
This makes the 2013 annual average extent rise on June 25th, as that
last day out of 365 that make up the annual average, has more ice
than the year before. On September 1 the gap has widened, so the rise
is even steeper: 2013 had 5m and 2012 3.5.
2016
is about .6m km2 lower than last year, so its AAE graph is falling
fast. The graph is already as low as 2012 for late October, but a
full 4 months earlier in the year. The significance is 2016 could
continue its fall for 4 more months and be way lower than 2012 in
late October, as long as the current ice extent stays well below that
of 2015.
Annual
Average Extent (AAE):
From the last update at about 10.02 million km² on 17th June, we've
lost about 9700 km² from the AAE in just 8 days, which was 7
days earlier than
the expected timespan of July 2—6.
In
detail, daily extent went from 9,870,723 km² on 17th June to
9,250,571 km² on 25th June, compared to 10,110,833 and 9,817,719 the
year before, giving a relative loss of 327,038 km². The average
decline in AAE over these 8 days has been 1209 km²/day, which means
we've been on average 441,000 km² lower than last year in daily
extent.
The
next 10,000 km² line is 10 and expected on July 1—3.
JAXA
Annual Average Extent for 2015 as a whole was 4th lowest
at 10.11 million
km², and by mid July we may be lowest ever at about 9.98 million
km². For the first time in 4 years we may end up lowest ever on
December 31st.
2013
is currently the only lower year, and we're on a clear path into
uncharted territory. It's now virtually certain that 2016 will be
lowest during July. Some very interesting times ahead, with the best
chances yet for a Blue
Ocean event
in the early autumn.
The
next major milestone of the Arctic sea ice collapse is 10 million km²
AAE, and expected on July 1—7.
Why
watch the Arctic sea ice?
While
the area around the North Pole is a cold and relatively barren place,
compared to eg. the Amazon rainforest (although the ocean underneath
the ice is teaming with life), the fate of the Arctic sea ice to a
large degree seals the fate of the Amazon rainforest — whether it
will eventually go up in flames or not — and not the other way
around. Put short it decides the fate of our global climate, no less.
In
contrast to the land–based area around the South Pole, the opposite
pole consists of sea ice floating on top of the Arctic Ocean, which
makes it an excellent indicator for our rapidly changing global
climate.
Why
watch the Arctic sea ice in 2016?
Well,
for a number of reasons.
*
After the first 177 days of the year, 2016 is already lowest ever in
average extent.
*
2016 even had the lowest ever extent for June 25th.
*
For the first time in 4 years the full annual average extent (on Dec
31) may be lowest ever.
*
September minimum extent may go lowest ever in 2016.
Why
isn't the Arctic sea ice frontpage news everywhere?
Well,
they've all got their reasonings and motivations for focusing
elsewhere, haven't they. And besides; constantly reporting on the
retreating Arctic sea ice goes against a number of news criteria,
such as:
*
it happens far away from us
*
it is a relatively slow and un–eventful process
*
it's not really a very positive or optimistic message for our readers
and advertisers
*
it's complicated and too scientific
"It's
Complicated"
This
chart may give you a hint as to why it is 'complicated':
2016
has now had the lowest ever extent for 88 days straight, since late
March. Chart also shows how rare these prolonged periods are, with
most of the record–lows lasting only a week or two. 2012 has an
83–day lowest lead in July–October, but can it survive THIS
melting season?
During
a year the extent of the ice goes up and down because of the seasons.
For parts of the year, 2012 may have the lowest ice extent, but for
other weeks even 2006 may be lowest. For most of the days of the
year, anyone may interject that "extent was lower in year 20–X",
and be correct.
To
simplify the picture for reporters and their editors, these annual
fluctuations may be straightened out into an annual average extent.
Currently, this average stands at 10 million square kilometers of sea
ice extent.
Going
lowest in 2016?
On
this chart for the annual average extent, you can see 2016 moving
rapidly towards that 'lowest ever' position:
It
may happen this very summer, first going lowest, lower than 2013, and
then perhaps even going ice–free, in humanity's first ever Blue
Ocean event?
Sea
ice leaving the Arctic Ocean entirely in late summer could be the
Brexit of the Arctic, throwing markets into a dangerous turmoil, as
such a Blue Ocean event could mean our so–called Carbon
Budget is gone forever.
There's no way we can stop global warming at 2C with an ice–free
Arctic. Such an attempt to stay below 2C would close down all
industry, shipping and aviation globally and crash every financial
market. For the sea ice itself, it would surely mean longer and
longer periods every summer would be ice–free for the years to
come, trapping ever more insolation and heat in the Arctic Ocean. A
strong self–reinforcing feedback, rendering every last human
attempt to control global warming more or less futile.
Thanks Harold Hensell
Arctic
Ice - 06 27 2016
This
is on the NE tip of Greenland.
The ice is flowing through what is
called the Fram Strait into the Greenland Sea. This is a fairly
cloudless view.
It is hard to get perspective from a long distance
satellite view.
Notice the ice berg about to come around the bend on
the upper left of this image .
Think of a town about 50 miles away.
This is about the size of this "chunk."
26
June, 2016
All
in all this little chart illustrates how we are well on our way to
the lowest year ever for Arctic sea ice extent:
For
the fresh follower of Arctic sea ice, this plot may seem strange and
even counter–intuitive. We're approaching high summer, and yet the
2013 graph is going up and up! What's up with that? Well, on June 25
2013 we had 10.2m km2 sea ice, while on June 25 2012 there was 9.5.
This makes the 2013 annual average extent rise on June 25th, as that
last day out of 365 that make up the annual average, has more ice
than the year before. On September 1 the gap has widened, so the rise
is even steeper: 2013 had 5m and 2012 3.5.
2016
is about .6m km2 lower than last year, so its AAE graph is falling
fast. The graph is already as low as 2012 for late October, but a
full 4 months earlier in the year. The significance is 2016 could
continue its fall for 4 more months and be way lower than 2012 in
late October, as long as the current ice extent stays well below that
of 2015.
Annual
Average Extent (AAE):
From the last update at about 10.02 million km² on 17th June, we've
lost about 9700 km² from the AAE in just 8 days, which was 7
days earlier than
the expected timespan of July 2—6.
In
detail, daily extent went from 9,870,723 km² on 17th June to
9,250,571 km² on 25th June, compared to 10,110,833 and 9,817,719 the
year before, giving a relative loss of 327,038 km². The average
decline in AAE over these 8 days has been 1209 km²/day, which means
we've been on average 441,000 km² lower than last year in daily
extent.
The
next 10,000 km² line is 10 and expected on July 1—3.
JAXA
Annual Average Extent for 2015 as a whole was 4th lowest
at 10.11 million
km², and by mid July we may be lowest ever at about 9.98 million
km². For the first time in 4 years we may end up lowest ever on
December 31st.
2013
is currently the only lower year, and we're on a clear path into
uncharted territory. It's now virtually certain that 2016 will be
lowest during July. Some very interesting times ahead, with the best
chances yet for a Blue
Ocean event
in the early autumn.
The
next major milestone of the Arctic sea ice collapse is 10 million km²
AAE, and expected on July 1—7.
Why
watch the Arctic sea ice?
While
the area around the North Pole is a cold and relatively barren place,
compared to eg. the Amazon rainforest (although the ocean underneath
the ice is teaming with life), the fate of the Arctic sea ice to a
large degree seals the fate of the Amazon rainforest — whether it
will eventually go up in flames or not — and not the other way
around. Put short it decides the fate of our global climate, no less.
In
contrast to the land–based area around the South Pole, the opposite
pole consists of sea ice floating on top of the Arctic Ocean, which
makes it an excellent indicator for our rapidly changing global
climate.
Why
watch the Arctic sea ice in 2016?
Well,
for a number of reasons.
*
After the first 177 days of the year, 2016 is already lowest ever in
average extent.
*
2016 even had the lowest ever extent for June 25th.
*
For the first time in 4 years the full annual average extent (on Dec
31) may be lowest ever.
*
September minimum extent may go lowest ever in 2016.
Why
isn't the Arctic sea ice frontpage news everywhere?
Well,
they've all got their reasonings and motivations for focusing
elsewhere, haven't they. And besides; constantly reporting on the
retreating Arctic sea ice goes against a number of news criteria,
such as:
*
it happens far away from us
*
it is a relatively slow and un–eventful process
*
it's not really a very positive or optimistic message for our readers
and advertisers
*
it's complicated and too scientific
"It's
Complicated"
This
chart may give you a hint as to why it is 'complicated':
2016
has now had the lowest ever extent for 88 days straight, since late
March. Chart also shows how rare these prolonged periods are, with
most of the record–lows lasting only a week or two. 2012 has an
83–day lowest lead in July–October, but can it survive THIS
melting season?
During
a year the extent of the ice goes up and down because of the seasons.
For parts of the year, 2012 may have the lowest ice extent, but for
other weeks even 2006 may be lowest. For most of the days of the
year, anyone may interject that "extent was lower in year 20–X",
and be correct.
To
simplify the picture for reporters and their editors, these annual
fluctuations may be straightened out into an annual average extent.
Currently, this average stands at 10 million square kilometers of sea
ice extent.
Going
lowest in 2016?
On
this chart for the annual average extent, you can see 2016 moving
rapidly towards that 'lowest ever' position:
It
may happen this very summer, first going lowest, lower than 2013, and
then perhaps even going ice–free, in humanity's first ever Blue
Ocean event?
Sea
ice leaving the Arctic Ocean entirely in late summer could be the
Brexit of the Arctic, throwing markets into a dangerous turmoil, as
such a Blue Ocean event could mean our so–called Carbon
Budget is gone forever.
There's no way we can stop global warming at 2C with an ice–free
Arctic. Such an attempt to stay below 2C would close down all
industry, shipping and aviation globally and crash every financial
market. For the sea ice itself, it would surely mean longer and
longer periods every summer would be ice–free for the years to
come, trapping ever more insolation and heat in the Arctic Ocean. A
strong self–reinforcing feedback, rendering every last human
attempt to control global warming more or less futile.
Thanks Harold Hensell
Arctic
Ice - 06 27 2016
This
is on the NE tip of Greenland.
The ice is flowing through what is
called the Fram Strait into the Greenland Sea. This is a fairly
cloudless view.
It is hard to get perspective from a long distance
satellite view.
Notice the ice berg about to come around the bend on
the upper left of this image .
Think of a town about 50 miles away.
This is about the size of this "chunk."
Nice to see Viddaloo's work getting some recognition. He's been posting his excellent analysis of the Arctic Sea Ice Collapse on the Forum at NBL for a few years. The best summation of the situation I've found for non scientists. A rational statistical approach and not trivialising or over-dramatising things. I would think a responsible major news network ( are there any? ) would want to syndicate him. Good for Wunderground, although they are quite mainstream.
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