I
have a little bit of space to devote to devote to events in the
Ukraine. This is proving to be as much a flashpoint as other
conflicts. The western media is painting this as a independence
movement against the Big Bad Bear that is bullying its southern
neighbor.
Reality
is much more complicated than that, as shown by the following
articles.
First,
the western perspective. Expect trouble wherever John McCain turns up.
Ukraine protesters return en masse to central Kiev for pro-EU campaign
Hundreds of thousands brave freezing weather to demand EU integration despite suspension of negotiations on the agreement
15
Decvember, 2013
Hundreds
of thousands of Ukrainians braved freezing temperatures and
aggressive policing to return to central Kiev on Sunday to demand
political change, sending a message to authorities that the crisis
over the government's failure to sign an EU integration pact is
unlikely to end soon.
With
the news that the EU has suspended negotiations on the agreement
likely to further inflame the mood, at least 200,000 people packed
into Independence Square, known as the maidan, to hear music and
speeches from the trio of Ukrainian politicians who have attempted to
lead the spontaneous outpouring of anger.
They
were joined early in the afternoon by US Republican senator John
McCain, who has made a sport of baiting Vladimir Putin at various
locations across the former Soviet Union.
"The
destiny you seek lies in Europe," McCain told the crowd, to
rapturous applause. "People of Ukraine, this is your moment. The
free world is with you, America is with you, I am with you."
McCain
was joined by a Democratic senator Chris Murphy, who told the crowds
they were making history. "If you are successful, the US Senate
will stand with you all the way," he said, in comments likely to
infuriate Moscow, which has accused Brussels and the west of
interfering in Ukrainian politics.
President
Viktor Yanukovych and his government have given mixed signals about
signing the agreement. The president has said on several occasions
that the country is still on the path to European integration.
However, the prime minister, Mykola Azarov, said at the weekend that
establishing closer ties with Russia was the way forward.
"We
understood that signing this agreement [with the EU] would mean
bankrupting us," he said on Saturday. "We need to restore
trade with the Russian Federation."
Yanukovych
travels to Moscow to meet Putin on Tuesday, and the opposition fear
he may sign up to the Customs Union, a trade bloc that the Kremlin is
keen to bolster with the addition of Ukraine.
Arseniy
Yatsenyuk, leader of the jailed former prime minister Yulia
Tymoshenko's Fatherland party, told the crowds that if Yanukovych
signed the agreement in Moscow, he should never return to Kiev.
"What
is happening on the maidan today? It is an anti-colonial revolution,"
said a former interior minister, Yuriy Lutsenko, from the stage.
"Above all, Ukrainians turned out to say to Moscow: 'We are no
longer under your command, we are an independent country.'"
A
rival rally organised by the government to show that the maidan
protests are not representative of all Ukraine turned out to be a
dud, despite the presence of tens of thousands of people bussed in
from the east and south of the country.
Several
dozen military tents and field kitchens were set up in a park near
the parliament, offering hot food and tea to those taking part, many
of whom brandished the blue flags of Yanukovych's Party of Regions.
But their weary demeanour and eagerness to leave for home after a few
hours was in striking contrast to the positive mood on the maidan.
The
majority of those present were employees of state-owned enterprises,
who were shipped into the capital on specially chartered trains or
buses organised by Yanukovych's party. Many of them admitted
privately that they had been paid to attend.
Nevertheless,
some were disturbed by events on the maidan. "Their maidan could
lead to a civil war, and we do not need that," said Mikhailo
Karavayev, a 20-year-old businessman from Zaporizhia in eastern
Ukraine.
"It's
impossible that these people are just not working for a month, the
country needs to work," said Alla Kravchenko, 59, who had come
for the day by chartered bus and was dancing with a Party of Regions
flag. She said the conflict should be resolved by negotiations and
not by street protests. "We are one country, and nobody should
be allowed to split us up."
With
the often changing demands of the opposition leaders, the surprising
durability of the maidan protest, and the unpredictability of
Yanukovych's decision making, few are brave enough to predict how the
standoff will end.
Volodymyr
Fesenko, a political analyst, said there were three scenarios. In the
first, the authorities could stick it out to new year, and hope the
maidan dissolved of its own accord during the holiday season.
The
second option would be a renewed attempt to disperse the protests:
"The 'force' wing among Yanukovych's inner circle remains very
active … The maidan is an irritant to Yanukovych and I'm not sure
he wants to bear it for several more weeks."
However,
any move against the maidan would involve heavy force as the square
is aggressively defended. Thousands of riot police spent several
hours dismantling barricades in an edgy standoff in the early hours
of Wednesday, but later retreated, and protesters rebuilt the
barricades twice as high.
The
final option is a compromise involving the sacking of the interior
minister or the prime minister. "If a neutral government of
technocrats is formed instead of the current one, it could relieve
tensions and calm people down," said the analyst.
Oleksandr Volkov, an MP from the Party of Regions, told the Guardian that parliament should meet to solve the crisis in the coming week.
"Some people have already been punished," he said, referring to the mayor of Kiev and Yanukovych's deputy security chief, who have been suspended pending an investigation into violence against protesters on 30 November that led to the protest snowballing. "We will also punish some more people," he added, and even held out the possibility that Azarov could be fired.
And the Russian point-of-view
Lavrov:
We did not threaten Kiev with sanctions, only warned of privilege
loss
There
has been no Russian blackmail against wannabe EU-member Ukraine, and
existing agreements between the two countries clearly state that only
certain trade privileges could be scrapped, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov said.
RT,
16
December, 2013
The
free trade agreement between members of Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS), which was signed and ratified by Ukraine in 2012, lists
all the measures a country could use in the event of threatening the
economic interests of others – and this does not include any
sanctions, Lavrov said during a Monday press conference in Brussels,
where he arrived for Russian-EU talks.
The
agreement, which in fact was lobbied by former Ukrainian President
Viktor Yuschenko, implies that any such state risks only losing
membership privileges, the Russian FM stressed. In the case of
Ukraine, it means going back to ‘Most Favored Nation’ (MFN)
treatment defined by the World Trade Organization (WTO), of which
both countries are member states. MFN is the term used to describe
the code of equal treatment given by WTO nations to other member
countries.
Russia
would obviously need to scrap trade privileges with Ukraine to
protect its own industries from collapsing if Kiev enters the EU
trade zone, Lavrov said.
“One
should understand, that economic issues should be built on economic
considerations and not on ideas of utilizing the geopolitical space,
and doing so for free,” the foreign minister added.
The
very idea of Ukraine having to choose between Moscow and Brussels is
“false,” Lavrov stressed. The Russian side has clearly shown to
the EU that both the Russia-led Customs Union and the proposed
Eurasian Union are actually leading to strengthening economic ties
with Europe by making the economies of member states more
competitive. Such ties should be based on equal, mutually beneficial
terms – not the “slave-like” conditions that the EU would
currently offer those countries.
The
Russian minister said he asked on Monday how many association
agreements the EU has with other states, adding that the EU could not
give a clear explanation of why the states are not rushing to ratify
such deals.
The
real reason for that is the EU’s wish to “obtain a practically
unlimited access to the markets of the countries, which are being
offered such agreements” at a time when their economies are
obviously not as competitive as those of EU member states.
If
states with weaker economies merge with the EU, their industries will
lose competitiveness – which is why certain countries are unwilling
to sign an EU association agreement straight away, Lavrov stressed.
Moreover,
one might get an impression that the EU wants certain countries to
open up their markets “exactly at the time when it is head and
shoulders above them in competitiveness,” he said.
Lavrov
added that he believes it is not by chance that the EU-Ukraine
association deal, as well as the EU’s other agreements with Eastern
Partnership states, were prepared “in secret.” Only after the
agreements had been initialed – that is, after they became not
subject to any further change – the EU published them, thus making
some of the largest trade partners of those states, such as Russia,
unable to discuss the effects they could cause on trade relations.
The
foreign minister called on the EU to stop “holding back from one
another the things being planned or intended in connection with the
countries that are big trade partners of both Russia and the EU.”
Moscow
confirms deployment of Iskander missiles on NATO borders
The
Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed media reports on the
deployment of short-range Iskander missiles in the country’s west,
near its borders with the Baltic states and NATO members, saying that
it does not violate international agreements.
RT,
16
December, 2013
German
newspaper Bild wrote this weekend that Russia stationed several
Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems - which are capable of
carrying nuclear warheads - in its westernmost exclave of
Kaliningrad, along the border with Baltic states. The paper said it
obtained “secret satellite” images showing at least 10 Russian
missiles close to the EU border, which were deployed over the past
year.
Commenting
on the matter, Moscow confirmed that it did station the missiles,
which have been designated by NATO as SS-26 Stone, in the region.
“Rocket
and artillery units of the Western Military District are really armed
with Iskander tactical missile systems,” Maj. Gen. Igor
Konashenkov, head of the Defense Ministry’s press service, told
reporters on Monday.
“The
concrete areas of the deployment of Iskander missile battalions in
the Western Military District do not contradict any international
agreements or treaties,” he added, as quoted by Interfax.
Lithuanian
Defense Minister Juozas Olekas said earlier that he was concerned
over the reports of Russian missiles near his country’s border. He
added that the former Soviet state had discussed with its neighbors
and NATO partners “how to react and protect” themselves, because
“any incidents were hypothetically possible,” Delfi news website
reported on Monday.
Neighboring
Latvia sees no threat to its security from the Iskanders being
stationed in the Kaliningrad region, according to Defense Minister
Artis Pabriks. “NATO guarantees to us rather high security level,”
he said in an interview with LNT on Monday, as quoted by RIA Novosti.
Meanwhile,
Poland says it is worried about the deployment of Russian missiles
near its border and plans to hold consultations on the matter with
alliance partners.
Iskanders
have been stationed in the region for over 18 months now, a senior
official at Russia’s Defense Ministry told Izvestia daily.
“Everything
works as planned there. I don’t know why the Germans are raising a
scare now,” the source noted.
Russia
is not going to ease its defense on European borders, where the
western military alliance keeps its strategic missile forces, said
deputy head of the State Duma’s defense committee, Viktor Zavarzin.
“NATO
has American tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Who can it be aimed
against if not Iran? Only against us,” he told the daily. The
official pointed out that Russian missiles do not pose a threat to
anyone. Rather, they are solely for defensive purposes.
The
deployment of Iskanders in Kaliningrad came in response to the
development of the US missile defense system in Europe – which has
long been a stumbling block in relations between Moscow and
Washington.
Back
in November 2011, when the US failed to agree to make the missile
defense shield a joint project with Russia, then-President Dmitry
Medvedev announced sweeping plans to address what Moscow considered
to be a threat to national security. He said he would deploy strike
systems in the west and south of the country, as well as station
Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region in order to counter the
risk posed by the European missile defense shield.
Moscow
has long been calling for legally-binding guarantees that the missile
defense system will not be aimed against Russia, but the US has so
far refused to deliver such a promise. For years, the necessity of
building the missile defense shield in Europe was justified by the
perceived threat from countries like Iran. However, as the
controversy over Tehran’s nuclear program seems to be nearing an
end, the US is not altering its intentions.
“We
realize clearly that the anti-missile defense system is only called
defensive, while in fact it is a significant part of the strategic
offensive potential,” President Vladimir Putin said in his address
to the Federal Assembly last week.
RT
Kusturica: Why does NATO still exist? To fight terrorism? It's laughable!
RT
As
Brussels goes into a renewed push to bring more countries into its
fold, the divisions between nations in fact go deeper. The call for
European integration rings on Kiev squares - and some fear it will
turn into western expansion. Who knows what's for the best? Today we
look at the picture not through the eyes of experts or politicians.
We ask a great artist about the changes in the air: Emir Kusturica -
filmmaker, actor, writer, and musician is on SophieCo
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