Today
Is Best Day to Buy
Gold
- Thackray's 2012 Investor's Guide
12
July, 2012
Today's
AM fix was USD 1565.50, EUR 1281.10 and GBP 1011.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s
AM fix was USD 1576.50, EUR 1284 and GBP 1012.91 per ounce.
Gold
rose by 0.5% in New York yesterday and closed up $8.20 to
$1,576.60/oz. Silver rose 0.93% or 25 cents to close at $27.09/oz.
Gold
gradually ticked lower in Asian trading and has seen further slight
weakness in European trading. Still robust physical demand is
supporting gold at these levels and strong support is at the
$1,500/oz level.
The
period of seasonal strength for gold bullion has arrived.
Thackray’s
2012 Investor’s Guide notes that the optimal time to invest in gold
bullion from a seasonal perspective is today, July 12.
The
summer months normally see seasonal weakness and it is thus a good
time to buy on the seasonal dip.
The
Global and Mail reports that Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
shows that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal
trade is from July 12th to October 9th (see news).
“The
trade has been profitable during 11 of the past 14 periods.”
During
the past 25 years, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500
Index by a very significant 4.7% during the period.
The
Globe and Mail notes that “traditionally, advances in gold during
its period of seasonal strength is attributed to precious metal
fabricators in India who purchase bullion to make into jewellery for
the Indian wedding season that starts in late October. India is the
second-biggest consumer of gold jewellery in the world behind China.”
The
trend may also be due to more sophisticated investors using gold as a
hedge and diversification and increasing allocations to gold during
the late summer and early autumn months which traditionally see
weakness in stock markets.
Timing
markets is extremely difficult - even for the few successful traders.
However, there are clear seasonal patterns that long term physical
gold buyers can use to their advantage.
We
continue to advocate accumulating physical gold bullion on dips and
holding for the long term.
Indeed,
part of your allocation to gold should be a permanent holding that
you hold as you would a health insurance policy.
Gold
will protect in the event of a geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary
or systemic event.
NEWSWIRE
(Thomson
Reuters Global Gold Forum) - Gold Should Find Good Support Around
Current Levels
A quick look at some technical analysts' notes from
the last 24 hours suggests gold should find good support around
current levels. Barclays Capital flags up primary support for spot
prices at $1,565/oz and secondary support at $1,550/oz, while
ScotiaMocatta expects the metal to hit support at $1,551/1,548/oz.
(Thomson
Reuters Global Gold Forum) –Investors Add to Precious Metal
Positions in June
Investors returned to commodity exchange-traded
products in June after two months of outflows, with the bulk going
into precious metals, according to BlackRock data, as a stuttering
U.S. economy encouraged investors to bet on further stimulus moves.
Commodity
ETPs attracted some $2.5 billion in June, the data showed, as
investors began building their positions in gold. These gold flows
have accelerated in July as economic indicators have continued to
deteriorate.
(Thomson
Reuters Global Gold Forum) – JP Morgan sent out a note
outlining their second global gold sector survey. The ranges on the
long-range gold price are eye-popping: from $500 an ounce to $10,000.
Outside
the wild extremes, JP Morgan notes that gold price expectations have
a fat upside tail. Most (23%) responders feel the long-term gold
price will be about $2,000/oz. An interesting group representing 9%
of those surveyed expect a long-term price of $1,200/oz, while a
significant 16% seems to be looking for a gold price above $2,500/oz.
(Bloomberg)
-- Indian Gold Demand Was Strongest This Month Yesterday, UBS
Says
Physical gold demand from India yesterday was the strongest
so far in July, according to UBS AG.
“From
now until the buying season starts kicking in towards the end of the
quarter, Indian demand is likely to continue its sporadic trend
wherein strong days are typically followed by subdued appetite,”
London-based analyst Edel Tully wrote in a report today. India’s
demandis down by about 30 percent since the start of the year, she
said.
While
the initial indicators from the start to Indian monsoon season
“aren’t so good” for gold demand so far, “there is still time
for some optimism to grow,” Tully wrote. Rural farming areas
account for about 60 percent of Indian gold- buying, she wrote.
(Bloomberg)
-- Standard Bank Picks Gold, Silver, Brent, Aluminum to Rally
Most
Standard Bank Plc picked gold, silver, brent oil and aluminum
as most likely to rally the most if there is any more easing from the
Federal Reserve.
For
breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us
on Twitter.
Cross
Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
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