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Britain's
miserable summer likely to continue for at least 10 days as
forecasters put blame on the jet stream
8
July, 2012
Look
through the window. It is likely to be raining. It has been raining,
a lot, for the past two months. And the bad news is that it's not
likely to stop soon.
More
flooding could be on its way, after forecasters warned that the
miserable weather – which has seen record amounts of rain fall in
April and June, parts of the UK hit by freak storms, and flash
flooding that has forced the evacuation of homes – is set to
continue at least until the Olympics.
This
week, an area of low pressure will move in from the west, bringing
showers and longer spells of rain across the whole country, according
to forecasters. "The summer so far has seen a colossal amount of
rain and the last 24 hours have been no exception," said Brendan
Jones, a forecaster with MeteoGroup. "The next couple of days
aren't going to be as bad as the last couple of days. There will be
sunshine and showers for just about the whole country. The showers
will be heavy and there will be thunderstorms as well.
"Not
in the next 10 days is there anything resembling reasonable summer
conditions."
After
a dry start to the week in the south, the rain across northern
England will move south and turn to showers across England and Wales,
according to the Met Office. But it will get worse – by midweek,
northerly or north-westerly winds will make us feel chilly, and by
Thursday and Friday there are likely to be widespread heavy and
thundery showers. Plus ça change.
The
consistently bad forecasts have created concern at the highest level,
with the environment secretary, Caroline Spelman, visiting the Met
Office in Exeter on Sunday for a briefing. Although flood warnings
have decreased – Monday and Tuesday were "very low risk",
according to the Environment Agency – the forecast of more rain
will cause concern in already sodden areas.
What
is going on? According to experts at the Met Office, the jet stream
has a lot to answer for. The jet stream is a fast-flowing ribbon of
air high in the atmosphere that pushes weather systems from west to
east, across the Atlantic towards Europe. Disturbances to the jet
stream have brought a succession of depressions across the country.
Typically, the northern hemisphere jet stream lies to the north of
Britain, placing those areas of rain-bringing low pressure over
Scandinavia instead of the UK.
Or,
as Michael Lawrence at the Met Office put it: "These areas of
low pressure are hitting the UK as a whole instead of giving us the
glancing blows you would usually expect in summer."
And
what a summer. More than twice the average rainfall hit the UK in
April. June was the wettest since records began, and the start of
July has seen a month's rain fall in 24 hours in some parts of the
south-west.
The
bad weather has stuck and shows little sign of shifting, according to
Helen Chivers at the Met Office. "The jet stream can get bends
in it, it can get distorted, which can move us into a blocked
pattern, like the dry weather we saw in winter … and the wet
weather we are seeing now."
What
is affecting these changes in the jet stream is the million-dollar
question, said Chivers. Variations could be caused by temperature
changes in the Pacific, but meteorologists are also studying how
shifts in the Earth's temperature, caused by global warming, affect
weather conditions.
"A
lot of work is being done into the decrease in Arctic sea ice,"
said Chivers. "Essentially, if you warm up a sea, you change the
temperature differential between the poles and the tropics and that
in turn influences the jet stream. Research has already shown the
influence on north-west Europe winters, making them drier and colder,
but what happens in the summer is still relatively unknown."
Britain's
geographical placement means variable weather is something we will
have to get used to. With the Atlantic on one side and Europe on the
other, where our wind comes from can make a dramatic difference.
"That's why in May we were seeing fine, dry weather and people
were talking about drought, and not long after the concern was
flooding," said Chivers.
So
can we expect to see more wet summers in the (dreary) future? Peter
Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office,
said the recent bad weather could be ascribed to the natural
variability of the weather. "But climate change could be making
things worse, because the globally warmer atmosphere now carries 4%
more moisture over the oceans than in the 1970s and this could be
leading to increased rainfall in weather systems."
The
only aspect of the impact of climate change on the weather that most
academics would agree on is the need for more research.
"One
of the challenges for attribution science is to better diagnose such
weather events and be able to attribute any changed risk of
heatwaves, flooding, etc, more accurately," said Stott.
Dr
David Schultz, at the centre for atmospheric science at the
University of Manchester, noted that a glance at the UKCIP (the UK
Climate Impacts Programme) maps predicting temperature and
precipitation for the rest of the summer suggest warmer temperatures
and slightly drier conditions on average. "There is a
probability that it could be wetter, though. The climate model
predictions allow that possibility," he said.
"It's
hard to extrapolate the past few summers to global warming as a
whole. That is the message I would give, if you want to be fair about
what the data is showing and our state of the science."
Britain braced for further flooding with more downpours on the way
Britain
is braced for further flooding this week as forecasters predict some
places will again see a month's rainfall in 24 hours, further topping
up swollen rivers and saturated ground.
9
July, 2012
With
many parts of the country still mopping up after the deluges at the
weekend, when up to two months' worth of rain were seen in a 24-hour
period, more downpours are on the way.
A
spokeswoman for the Environment Agency said: “With all the ground
saturated and the rivers very high, we have to be on high alert.”
The
Met Office said that while this week would see changeable weather
with some sunny spells, weather warnings were in place in different
parts of the country over the next few days.
The
worst-affected areas may see the monthly average of 50mm fall in just
a day.
Tomorrow,
an area stretching from just north of Bristol across to Cambridge is
expected to see thunderstorms and heavy showers, with up to 50mm in a
few places.
On
Wednesday, the eastern half of England will see more heavy showers,
with totals of up to 30mm likely.
The
next day, the south west – worst affected by the weekend’s floods
– will again get a soaking, with up to 50mm falling in some places.
Met
Office forecaster Sarah Holland said it was “not all doom and
gloom” but there will be no prolonged hot spells until at least
August.
Over
the weekend, widespread flooding caused hundreds of millions of
pounds worth of damage to homes, with many rendered uninhabitable.
Hundreds were forced to move to temporary accommodation while repairs
and safety checks were carried out.
The
Environment Agency said it was now in “recovery mode” after the
weekend’s floods although the forecasts of rain meant it was still
on alert.
“There
is still a possibility that in some areas there may be some
additional flooding in the coming days,” the spokeswoman said.
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South Africa:
Flooding
and heavy rains lash Cape Town
Heavy
rains in Cape Town on Sunday flooded roads and houses and caused the
Liesbeek River to burst its banks, and there were “extreme weather”
warnings of bitter cold over much of the country
9
July, 2012
July
9, 2012 – AFRICA -. The M3 was flooded where the road dips near
UCT, and traffic was backed up as motorists slowed down to plough
through the muddy waters.
Many shacks on the Cape Flats were flooded
and the city council and charity organizations provided hot meals,
blankets and plastic sheeting to about 350 families.
The SA Weather
Service said on Sunday’s cold front had been particularly strong,
adding that the cold, wet weather was here to stay for the next few
days. The weather office said westerly winds at Cape Point reached
near gale force of 55km/h on Sunday morning, while there were rough
seas with heavy swells between 4m and 5m from Lamberts Bay to the
southern Cape coast.
The city council’s disaster risk management
centre ordered about 60 people to evacuate the River Club premises
for their safety on Sunday after rising flood waters from the
Liesbeek had inundated the club’s parking lot and courtyard.
Wilfred Solomons-Johannes, head of the city’s disaster management,
said there had been 43 incidents of flooded roads in the metropole on
Sunday, but none had caused road closures.
Fifteen vehicles had been
removed from the flooded River Club grounds. Bernie Maxwell, who
works in the River Club’s golf shop, said on Sunday:
“We’re
trapped and the bus is taking us out from this area. The golf shop
and the restaurant are closing up, but there are SA’s Got Talent
auditions here too, and they’re carrying on. “The water is up to
the car doors in the car park. Right now we’re preparing to store
all the stuff in the shop above ground level just in case the water
comes higher.”
-Iol
-->
Death toll from floods in southern Russia rises to 171
9
July, 2012
ce
said was five times the monthly average. 
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