Arctic sea ice making a dramatic October plunge into record low
territory for annual average extent:
this season of seasons i see collapse itself collapsing and
the future of future spinning like moths in the lamp on a
floor of dead moths We
are now officially lower than 2012, both for daily sea ice extent
and annual average, and you can see the 2012 graph never goes as low
as 2016 was for October 20th. The only remaining record low before
Wednesday for Annual Average Extent was the May 2013 all time low of
9.916 million km² (set by the 365 days leading up to and including
May 15th 2013), and now no single previous day has been lower. Plot
shows annual average* extent, not daily extent.
highlights a likely future of sustained lowest ever annual sea ice
Eyeballing the graph, the blue dotted line and
confidence interval suggest we'll be below 9.8 million km² by
November—December, so dramatically lower than both 2012 in autumn
and 2013 during spring. We've truly entered the dreaded uncharted
waters, where — literally — anything can happen. Including
annual and ever longer Blue
We're into the great wide open.
visually present the new all–time record low for annual extent,
the above graph has been laterally expanded all the way back to
January 1st. Then you can clearly see the May 15th previous record
on the pink 2013 graph:
Average Extent (AAE):
From the last update at about 9.92 million km² on 17th October,
we've lost about 11200 km² from the AAE in just 3 days, which
the expected timespan of
In detail, daily extent went from 5,756,548
km² on 17th October to 6,153,229 km² on 20th October, compared to
7,043,581 and 7,363,764 the year before, giving a relative gain
of 76,498 km².
The average decline in AAE over these 3 days has been 3555 km²/day,
which means we've been on average 1,298,000
km² lower than
last year in daily extent.
The next 10,000 km² line is 9.9
and expected on October
Annual Average Extent for 2015 as a whole was 4th lowest
at 10.11 million
km², and since Mid–July we've been lowest ever
at 9.91–9.98 million
km². For the first time in 4 years we may end up lowest ever on
We're now already into uncharted waters. Some
very interesting times ahead, with the best chances yet for aBlue
during the next ten months.
The next major milestone of the
Arctic sea ice collapse is 9 million km² AAE, and expected
in 2017—2018. *)
Don't get it? Just about once every month there is a new person
actively voicing their concern that this is all wrong. I've totally
messed up and I don't even know ice melts in summer and ocean
freezes over in autumn and winter. I'm not a teacher, so I can
only explain the
concept of an annual average scientifically. I don't know what
motivates the person in question to actually go and read the
mathematical explanation. I usually don't know that person at all.
I've been publishing annual average graphs since 2014, and I can
assure you they are not wrong. Mostly, the monthly concerned person
didn't get the 'annual average' part. Or they thought it wasn't
essential to the understanding of the graph. It is.
For the 7–year
have a look at this post.