The
Sub-Zero Club Admits a New Member
BY
JOHN RUBINO
10
July, 2012
Over
the past few months Germany, Switzerland and the US have sold bonds
with negative yields, meaning that investors are in effect paying
those countries to safeguard their capital.
Yesterday
the sub-zero club admitted a fourth member:
France sells bonds at negative interest rate
PARIS – France’s government has sold short-term bonds at negative interest rates for the first time, a sign of investor confidence despite concerns about French debts and the wider eurozone.
Despite the dropping rates, France’s economic outlook is stagnant. President Francois Hollande said Monday that growth in the first half of this year is expected to be “nil.”
Yields, or borrowing rates, have been falling on French medium and long-term bonds in auctions over the past couple of months, as investors flock to the perceived safety of Europe’s larger economies.
In a sale Monday, the treasury sold three-month bonds at -0.005 percent, and six-month bonds at -0.006 percent. The treasury agency says it’s the first time they have registered negative yields
Some
thoughts
It’s
easy to understand Swiss, German, or even US bonds trading with
negative yields. But French bonds? After the country elects a
Socialist who promises to increase government spending and raise
marginal tax rates to 75%? This is a truly desperate world, and these
bonds are safe havens only in the most short-term sense.
Consider
the economic impact of negative interest rates: Capital parked in
these bonds actually shrinks over time, so its contribution to
economic growth is negative. A nation’s GDP contracts if its money
earns a negative yield, which puts the government in an even deeper
hole that requires even more borrowing, ad, apparently, infinitum.
For gold the implications
of this trend towards sub-zero interest rates are mixed. On one hand,
the rap against gold has always been that it doesn’t pay interest.
But with the safest fiat currency bonds actually costing money to
own, gold’s zero yield looks relatively good. On the other hand,
the reason that rates are falling so precipitously is that vast
sections of the global financial system are imploding, which is
profoundly deflationary. On yet another hand, the major central banks
will inevitably react with money creation the likes of which John
Maynard Keynes could only have dreamed of, which is obviously
inflationary. Add it all up and gold’s story is the same as it’s
been for a decade: lots of twists and turns but wildly bullish in
the end.
The
idea of paying someone to hold our money harkens back to the origins
of banking, when goldsmiths offered to warehouse customer coins and
bullion for a fee. Could this be the beginning of the end of
fractional reserve banking? Future historians take note.
Source:
Dollar Collapse
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