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Climate Change and a Mangled Jet Stream: Historic May Deluge for Bosnia and Serbia
Robertscribbler,
16 May, 2014
Over the past week, a powerful heat dome high pressure system grew ever-more-entrenched over a region just north of the Caspian Sea. This sprawling high pushed an extreme amplitude ridge pattern north toward Arctic Russia, Scandinavia, and the Kara and Barents Seas. Behind this ridge, toward Central and Eastern Europe, a deep trough dipole pattern developed. A cold and unstable pit in the atmosphere hungry for storms and drawing in energy from the far-north Arctic near Svalbard.
By
late Tuesday, the deep pit had fallen down into a cut-off and
powerful low pressure system, wringing out the moisture spilling off
the heat dome high. By today, that system had turned into a kind of
inland hurricane as it dumped as much as four months worth of
rainfall in less than 40 hours over broad sections of Bosnia and
Serbia.
(The very vision of a hydrological cycle amped-up by human-caused climate change — deluge over Bosnia and Serbia. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
The
result was a staggering inundation of water that cut off entire
towns, knocked out bridges, left thousands of people stranded and
resulted in the loss of at least 5 souls. Flood waters surged through
towns and villages, carrying away cars, capsizing homes, and turning
streets into torrents. Hillsides collapsed into slurries of muck and
the two main north-south rail lines through Serbia and Bosnia were
cut off.
By
today, officials were declaring the event the worst water disaster
ever to occur in the region. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic made an
embattled appeal for aid from neighboring countries saying:
“What
we are facing is the biggest water catastrophe in Serbia’s
history.”
According
to reports from Serbia
Independent News,
rainfall rates were the highest ever measured in all of the 120 year
record. Records in Bosnia also hit their highest levels since
measurements began in 1894.
In
Bosnia, Maglaj, a town some 60 miles north of Sarajevo was inundated
by a massive water surge, forcing 6,000 to evacuate as others climbed
onto rooftops to avoid the rushing water. Harried Maglai Mayor Mehmed
Mustabasic noted:
“The
situation is alarming. We have no electricity, the phones are not
working. We are cut off from the rest of the world.”
(Euro-News assessment of the still-ongoing disaster)
Bosnian
and Serbian military helicopters scoured the countryside for stranded
persons, ultimately evacuating hundreds more. EU troops stationed in
the Balkans joined in with trucks and more helicopters, but many
roads remained impassable either due to flooding or to heavy snowfall
blanketing higher elevations. Almost all schools across the widely
impacted region were closed.
“We
have engaged all our manpower,” said Predrag Maric, a Serbian
emergency official, as strong winds and rain cut off a key road to
Croatia. “Water is rising everywhere.”
Unfortunately,
the cut-off low pressure system setting off this historic storm is
now entrenched and will likely continue to bring severe weather to
the region into early Saturday. So relief is not likely to come until
the weekend.
Links:
Hat-tip
to Colorado Bob
Bosnia
and Serbia emergency after 'worst ever' floods
BBC,
16 May, 2014
Overflowing rivers have burst into towns and villages, cutting off whole communities, while landslides have buried houses.
At least three people have drowned.
Army helicopters have been sent to evacuate thousands of stranded residents but reports say bad weather is hampering the rescue efforts.
River levels rose all over Bosnia, including in the capital Sarajevo
Rising water levels have cut off communities south of the Serbian capital, Belgrade
Serbia's Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said it was the "greatest flooding disaster ever".
He said his government had appealed for help from the European Union, Russia and neighbouring countries.
Rescuers in Serbia say they have so far managed to to evacuate around 4,000 people.
Residents boarded boats to escape the flood waters near the Serbian town of Lazarevac
Some of those left stranded in Bosnia could only wait for rescue teams to arrive
In Bosnia, army helicopters have been trying to rescue residents, some of whom have been sitting on their roofs waiting for help.
But reports say strong wind and rain may be hampering the efforts.
"We had to abort the mission because of the rainfall and winds. The weather is horrible and the helicopter has its limits," said rescue pilot Fahrudin Memic.
"This is the most difficult mission I have ever participated in."
Thousands of homes are without electricity.
Whole suburbs of Sarajevo have been submerged
Many towns in Serbia could be reached only by boat
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