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Ukraine
SITREP May 29th,
16:06 UTC/Zulu:
Poroshenko's weird war
29
May, 2014
Introduction: the broader background to the Ukrainian crisis
Before
looking at the latest developments in the Ukraine, I think that it is
important to at least mention two major developments involving
Russia. First, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have signed the
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and they will soon be joined by Armenia
and Kyrgyzstan. Second,China
has officially called for a new security alliance with Russia and
Iran thereby
proving that all the naysayers who said that China did not really
mean it to form an alliance with Russia were plain wrong. As I
mentioned it in a previous SITREP the scope and nature of the recent
economic agreements between Russia and China already constituted what
I called a crypto-alliance and now we see the first official move by
China to drop the 'crypto' part of it. Again, this is truly a
major tectonic shift in world politics and, arguable, the creation of
the most powerful coalition of countries in history. The title
of Godfather of this new coalition should really go to the USA and
Barak Obama who by his amazingly arrogant and hostile policies
towards both China and Russia has greatly contributed to the forging
of this alliance.
This
process is far from over, by the way. Not only are there
discussions to expand the BRICS to
other countries (like Argentina), the SCO or CSTOcould
also be expanded to include countries such as Iran or Pakistan.
AS for the Eurasian Economic Union, it will eventually morph into a
single political entity, a Eurasian alliance which could include
China in economic and/or security agreements.
 |
| Lukashenko, Nazarbaev and Putin sign the EEU |
The
entire Eurasian landmass is slowly but inexorably becoming integrated
into a zone free from AngloZionist control and free of the dollar.
The writing is on the wall for the AngloZionist Empire.
Latest
developments in the Ukraine
The
Ukrainian offensive has seen yet another dramatic escalation with,
for the first time, the use of "Grad" multiple rocket
launchers on the city of Slaviansk. At least one Ukrainian
helicopter, reportedly carrying a general and 12 other people, has
been shot down by the Novorossia Defense Forces (NDF). Sporadic
artillery fire, at times intensive, has been heard through the night
and casualties continue to be brought into the local hospitals.
Several Ukrainian units have put down their weapons and basically
surrendered to the NDF. In Sebastopol special headquarters have
been set up to deal with the flow of incoming refugees. In Kiev
the Parliament is considering declaring martial law which would
basically give unlimited power to the junta and suspend most civil
rights.
There
are two ways to look at these events. You could say that a lot
happened, there is an escalation taking place, people on both sides
die, helicopters got shot down, units are refusing to obey criminal
order, etc. But you could also say that from a purely military
point of view absolutely nothing happened at all. Think of it
this way:
What
have we seen since the junta began its terror operation in
Novorossiia? Slaviansk and Kramatorsk have been besieged and
shelled. The junta forces have seized the airports near
Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk. That's it.
Now
let me immediately dispel the notion that these airports are somehow
strategically important. They are not. Normally, in most
military conflicts, airports are very important objects, especially
their runways and radars. But in this case the seizure of the
Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk airports has not been followed by
any use of them by the junta, if only because there is way too much
combat still taking place around them to make their use safe.
Besides, what need is there for airports when everything can be
reached by road anyway? What about denying the use of this airport to
either the NDF or the Russians should they decide to intervene?
Well, the NDF has no air assets at all, as for the Russians they sure
don't need an airport to land an Airborne Regiment, Brigade or even
Division. So why did the junta decide to commit its best
forces to seize these airports? Simple - because they are not
cities. Or, put differently, because they are located outsides
cities. The fact is that the junta simply does not have the
forces needed to occupy and control any city, so this is why they go
for objectives which are outside cities.
Petr
Poroshenko has announced that what the junta calls the
"anti-terrorist operation" should not last for weeks, but
only hours. So this begs the question: if the entire mix of
junta forces (military + death-squads) have not succeeded in taking
either Slaviansk (hab: 130'000)or Kramatorsk (hab: 165'000), what are
their chances to take Donetsk (hab: 1'000'000)? Zero, of
course. And even less than zero if that is to be done in a
matter of a few days and hours.
So
what is the point of all this?
Is
it that the political leaders and the junta are simply stupid or
completely miss-informed?
No,
it's not that simple. For one thing, to speak of a "junta's
strategy" or "Poroshenko's strategy" is plain wrong as
this accepts they myth that that is an independent government in the
Ukraine. There is none. Truly, all the decisions are
taken by Uncle Sam and his representatives in Kiev and the so-called
authorities are just the USA's collaborators who simply take orders
form their boss. And for all their sins, the folks in DC are
neither stupid not poorly informed. So what is their strategy
in this frankly weird civil war?
Ideally,
the first objective of the AngloZionists would be to trigger a
Russian military intervention in protection of Novorossiia.
That would re-create the kind of Cold War tensions these folks are so
nostalgic for. It would give a justification for the existence
of NATO and, if played well, it could even result in NATO and Russian
forces looking at each other across the Dniepr river. Not only
would such a situation be a dream come true for the US
military-industrial complex, it would make it possible for the USA to
achieve one of its most important strategic objective: to keep Europe
colonized and to prevent any chance of its integration with the
East. Far from being stupid, this strategy is nothing short of
brilliant as it gives Putin only two choices: if Russia does not
intervene Putin will look weak, indecisive, or even like a traitor to
the Russian people, but if Russia does intervene, then Putin will be
called the "New Hitler" or "New Stalin", a crazed
Russian nationalist hell-bent on re-building the Soviet Union and
crushing the freedom-loving Europeans under his tanks. Are
these cliches? Yes, of course, but they will be used. So
for Putin its "damned if you do, and damned if you don't".
Second
option: to wear down the NDF to the point where they will eventually
surrender. Not very likely, but in theory possible.
Should that happen, this could be presented as a double victory for
Poroshenko: he crushed the "terrorists" and he "deterred
the Russian Bear". Again, this is a lot of whishful
thinking, but in theory the US might see that as a unlikely but
possible outcome.
Option
three: the old US strategy of "what I cannot have, I burn
down". Basically, the strategy here is to destroy and
damage as much of Novorossiia as possible, making a recovery as long
and costly as possible. This is also a lesson to all those who
dare defy the Empire: you disobey and we will make you pay.
Russian
options
As
I mentioned above, Russia really has very few options to chose from.
Any direct Russian intervention in the Ukraine - which in military
terms would be a no-brainer - would have huge political consequences
for the future of Europe's stability. In essence, by
not intervening Russia is denying the USA the Cold War v2 it wants so
badly.
Should Russia intervene, and that is very possible, it would mean
that the Kremlin accepts that the real price of its intervention is a
long term re-submission of all of Europe to US interests.
Russia
does, of course, have the option of covertly assisting the NDF and
there is no doubt in my mind that it is already doing it, but this
can only be done in a very careful and remote manner in order to
avoid giving the US any proof of covert support. Still,
advanced anti-air and anti-tank weapons are clearly shown on some
videos which shows that somebody is helping the resistance.
Russia
has also begun leaking information about the Ukrainian units involved
in terror operations against the people of the Donbass. For
example, Russian TV has announced yesterday that the following units
have been involved in the bombing of the Donetsk airport: the 299
Tactical Aviation Brigade from Nikolaev (Su-25) and the 40th Aviation
Brigade from Vasilkovo (MiG-29) who use the Ivan Kozhedub Air Force
University of Kharkov (Mi-24; Mi-8) as a combat operations basis.
Russian bloggers have also leaked the photos and names of the pilots
involved.
Russian
jurists have created special legal companies who take the testimony
of the Ukrainians whose civil or human right have been violated by
the junta to file lawsuits in Ukrainian courts. Of course, the
Ukrainian courts are fully expected to reject the complaint at which
point the Russian can then file their lawsuits at the European Court
of Human Rights.
The
good news for Russia is that there is no way that the Junta can take
Donetsk or Lugansk. And even if junta forces did enter these
cities they would not be able to control them. The Russian
military strategists understand that very well. After all, the
Russians have more urban combat experience than any army in the
world: during WWII the Soviet forces liberated 1200 cities form the
German Army and that experience has been studied over and over again
in the Russian military academies. Furthermore, while currently only
a minority of the man of combat age in the Donbass have joined the
NDF, the constant shelling and terror of the junta's assault is
motivating more and more of them to join the resistance.
Time
is on the side of Novorossiia and of Russia.
My
own feeling is that Poroshenko will soon fold and announce some kind
of "peace initiative" which would probably not involve a
complete withdrawal of junta forces from Novorossiia as demanded by
the local authorities, but it will include a "suspension"
of combat operations. Poroshenko - who is most definitely not a
dumb man - knows that he absolutely must sit down and begin
negotiating with the Russian and he also knows that the Russians
simply cannot negotiate with him as long as active combat operations
continue. I cannot prove that, but I believe that Poroshenko
himself already understands all this and that what is happening now
is that he is trying to convince the US of the need to accept the
facts on the ground. Right now, Poroshenko can hide behind the
tiny figleaf excuse that he has not been formally inaugurated, but
that pretext will vanish pretty soon (on June 7th) and I suspect that
as soon following his inauguration he will announce some kind of
peace initiative.
Until
then, the Russians will have to wait and grind their teeth at the
news of every atrocity committed by the junta's neo-Nazi
death-squads. Payback time will come, but the first priority
will have to be to deny the AngloZionists the Cold War they are so
desperately trying to trigger..
The
Saker
PS:
as a small footnote: to those of you who can read Russian and who
have an Android device (smartphone or tablet) there is a new and very
interesting application called Вежливые
Люди available
from the Google Play (aka Android Store) called . There are two
versions of it, the one supported by ads:
and
the one costing $1.12 which is ad-free:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gentlemen (which
I urge you to chose over the other one).
Вежливые
Люди provides updated information from 18 different news sources
mostly focused on the events in the Eastern Ukraine. You can
browse through them and get a title and a paragraph or so and then,
if you click on it, it takes you to the full article. See the
screenshot to the right.
This
app is only in its version 1.0 but it is already very useful and well
designed and I find it one of the best sources of information about
what is happening in the Ukraine. I highly recommend it to you,
especially the articles from the "Голос Севастополя"
which is based in the Crimea provides up to date information from the
resistance in the Donbass.
For
English speakers my first choice would be RT News English and its
excellent Android application:
14 military killed in chopper
downed in E. Ukraine - acting
president
29
May, 2014
Anti-government
protesters in Slavyansk have downed a Ukrainian forces helicopter in
the south-east of Slavyansk in the Donetsk region.
Fourteen
servicemen, including a major-general, Vladimir Kulchitsky, have have
been killed in a helicopter crash near Slavyansk, according to the
acting president of Ukraine, Aleksandr Turchinov, who spoke at a
parliamentary session in Kiev.
Kulchitsky,
51, was the head of the department of Combat and Special training in
Ukraine’s National Guard.
Meanwhile,
Ukraine’s National Guard reported 12 dead: six servicemen,
including the helicopter crew and six members of the Berkut forces.
Ukraine’s
army has started shelling the eastern Ukraine cities of Slavyansk and
Kramatorsk, thereby resuming its massive military operation in the
East of the country, local news outlets report.
“A
full-scale military operation has begun in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
BM-21 launch vehicle “Grad” are being used,” Donbas-based
Ostrov agency says.
“Intensive
shooting has been heard in the region, and thick black smoke
seen,” he
added.
One more damaged house in Slavyansk. The residents were outside during the attack.
Meanwhile,
Itar-Tass has reported that fighter jets have been flying over the
city of Kramatorsk in the Donetsk Region. “The
hospitals were told to evacuate patients from the upper floors,” said
a representative from the self-defense forces.
On
Wednesday a school and a kindergarten were shelled in Slavyansk. In
the kindergarten at least 9 civilians were injured, including a
4-year old boy.
A
teacher from the targeted school said that the shell exploded right
above the school hall, where children are usually gathered for
festive events, and part of the roof “was simply blown away.”
Luckily, no children were in the hall at the time. All the pupils and
teachers were quickly evacuated to the basement.
Video: Kiev protesters
remain on Maidan despite
Klitschko's demand to leave
Protesters
continue to camp out on Maidan Square despite newly appointed Kiev
mayor Vitali Klitschko demanding the protesters go home. Barricades
and photographs fill the square while protesters continue to sleep in
tents.
And from disinformation agents BBC
The neo-cons have pursued a policy of bombing Iraq and Libya into the stone age and have successfully destroyed the functioning fabric of these societies in Libya's case under the guise of a 'No Fly Zone' I suspect they are prepared to destroy the Ukraine in the same way in the hope that Vladimir Putin will intervene and drive a wedge between the Russian rapprochement with Western Europe. This callous attitude was revealed in Victoria Nulland's racist off the cuff comment " Fuck the Europeans". I will be particularly interested in how the Chopper was brought down. When Russia lost its war in Afghanistan the introduction of M.A.N. pad, shoulder to air missiles was a game changer for the resistance. These were supplied by Uncle Sam. Ever since that conflict the stinger missiles and Russia's equivalent have been tightly held because of the danger they pose to any plane/ helicopter either military or civilian. I note one was fired in Kenya at an El Al domestic flight taking off from Nairobi airport which failed to connect with it's target due to the El Al 747 discharging military grade 'Chaff' for exactly this purpose. I will be very interested to know what brought down this chopper with such a senior officer on board!.
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