Posts
Mapping
El Niño’s Looming
Effect on Global Croplands
16
May, 2014
A
monster El Niño could be on its way, and it will likely
have a
complicated effect on the world’s breadbaskets.
Something
fierce is rising out of the Pacific Ocean, and its appetite for
the world’s major carb crops could be even more ravenous than
that of a monstrous mythical sea creature. But this is a
monster with some benevolence. The expected arrival of El Niño
in the coming months could be a boon for protein-heavy
vegetarian diets, with boosted worldwide soy yields.
A
dinosaurian belch of warm water thousands
of miles wide has
appeared at the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The warming ocean conditions have spurred NOAA
to project a
two-thirds chance that an El Niño will form by summer’s
end. It’s
tipped to be of the monster variety—the
extreme type that could
become more commonwith
global warming. Because the planet has warmed since the
last extreme El Niño, some
17 years ago,
there are fears that these warm waters could
herald record-shattering extreme weather and temperatures.
For
a sense of the type of havoc that extreme El Niños
can wreak, think back to the late 1990s, or to the early 1980s, when
widespread flooding and droughts plagued every inhabited continent,
bleaching corals, ravaging wildlife, and killing tens of
thousands of people. And as you mull over those
disturbing memories of yore, chew on a sandwich—and savor
it, for the weather that’s forecast to strike us
could make that bread harder to get.
Scientists
analyzed United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization maps
showing where major crops are grown—wheat, soy, rice, and
corn, which provide 60 percent of the world’s
cropland-derived calories. They compared those maps with 20
years worth of weather observations. Then they factored regional
growing seasons into their analysis to forecast how El Niño,
La Niña, and the current nothing phase that lies between them
(sometimes
called La Nada)
could affect growing conditions during the three months
that precede each crop’s harvest.
Overall,
the researchers discovered that yields could rise from about a
third of harvested areas worldwide during the coming El Niño,
most notably on soybean fields, mostly because
of heavier rainfall and cooler temperatures. They
found that between a fifth and a quarter of harvested areas
worldwide could see yields fall, largely due to hot and
dry conditions expected in those places. Corn, wheat, and rice
yields are all expected to fall overall. Farmers that will
be hit the hardest include wheat and corn growers in parts of
the United States.
In
the following chart from the new paper, published
Thursday inNature
Communications,
yields of the major crops during El Niño compared with La
Nada (gray) are shown in red. La Niña findings are shown in
blue.
Mapping
El Niño’s Looming
Effect on Global Croplands
16
May, 2014
A
monster El Niño could be on its way, and it will likely
have a
complicated effect on the world’s breadbaskets.
Something
fierce is rising out of the Pacific Ocean, and its appetite for
the world’s major carb crops could be even more ravenous than
that of a monstrous mythical sea creature. But this is a
monster with some benevolence. The expected arrival of El Niño
in the coming months could be a boon for protein-heavy
vegetarian diets, with boosted worldwide soy yields.
A
dinosaurian belch of warm water thousands
of miles wide has
appeared at the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The warming ocean conditions have spurred NOAA
to project a
two-thirds chance that an El Niño will form by summer’s
end. It’s
tipped to be of the monster variety—the
extreme type that could
become more commonwith
global warming. Because the planet has warmed since the
last extreme El Niño, some
17 years ago,
there are fears that these warm waters could
herald record-shattering extreme weather and temperatures.
For
a sense of the type of havoc that extreme El Niños
can wreak, think back to the late 1990s, or to the early 1980s, when
widespread flooding and droughts plagued every inhabited continent,
bleaching corals, ravaging wildlife, and killing tens of
thousands of people. And as you mull over those
disturbing memories of yore, chew on a sandwich—and savor
it, for the weather that’s forecast to strike us
could make that bread harder to get.
Scientists
analyzed United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization maps
showing where major crops are grown—wheat, soy, rice, and
corn, which provide 60 percent of the world’s
cropland-derived calories. They compared those maps with 20
years worth of weather observations. Then they factored regional
growing seasons into their analysis to forecast how El Niño,
La Niña, and the current nothing phase that lies between them
(sometimes
called La Nada)
could affect growing conditions during the three months
that precede each crop’s harvest.
Overall,
the researchers discovered that yields could rise from about a
third of harvested areas worldwide during the coming El Niño,
most notably on soybean fields, mostly because
of heavier rainfall and cooler temperatures. They
found that between a fifth and a quarter of harvested areas
worldwide could see yields fall, largely due to hot and
dry conditions expected in those places. Corn, wheat, and rice
yields are all expected to fall overall. Farmers that will
be hit the hardest include wheat and corn growers in parts of
the United States.
In
the following chart from the new paper, published
Thursday inNature
Communications,
yields of the major crops during El Niño compared with La
Nada (gray) are shown in red. La Niña findings are shown in
blue.
(Chart:
Nature Communications)
Here’s a
map showing the modeled impacts of El Niño on
croplands around the world, compared with La Nada years:
Here’s a
map showing the modeled impacts of El Niño on
croplands around the world, compared with La Nada years:
(Map:
Nature Communications)
And
here’s the map of projected La Niña impacts:
And
here’s the map of projected La Niña impacts:
(Map:
Nature Communications)
Deep
Ocean Warming is
Coming Back to Haunt Us:
Record Warmth for 2014
Likely As Equatorial Heat
Rises
Robertscribbler,16 May, 2014
As
prominent ocean researcher and climate scientist Dr. Kevin Trenberth
presciently noted during recent years — an observed spike in ocean
heat content over the past decade may well be coming back to haunt
us.
Earlier
this year the most intense sub-sea Kelvin Wave on record raged across
the Pacific Ocean. Driven eastward by a series of
strong westerly wind bursts, it traveled just below the surface,
running out to collide with South America. By April, it had arrived
in the traditional El Nino spawning grounds of the Eastern Equatorial
Pacific where it retained an extreme intensity. There it sprawled,
snuffing off the cold deep water upwelling that over the past few
years has kept surface water temperatures in this critical region
slightly cooler than average.
And
so, from late March through mid-May, the Eastern Pacific warmed.
A
surface warm pool sprang off the back of this beast, growing even as
it continued to gather heat, radiating it back into the atmosphere.
By yesterday, temperature anomaly values over this growing region had
increased to between 1 and 3 C above average with local spikes up to
+3.9 C — a far above normal temperature departure for ocean surface
waters, especially near the stable equator. But if trends hold, this
is just the beginning. An early start to what could be a
record-setting event.
.
Deep Ocean Warming is
Earlier
this year the most intense sub-sea Kelvin Wave on record raged across
the Pacific Ocean. Driven eastward by a series of
strong westerly wind bursts, it traveled just below the surface,
running out to collide with South America. By April, it had arrived
in the traditional El Nino spawning grounds of the Eastern Equatorial
Pacific where it retained an extreme intensity. There it sprawled,
snuffing off the cold deep water upwelling that over the past few
years has kept surface water temperatures in this critical region
slightly cooler than average.
And
so, from late March through mid-May, the Eastern Pacific warmed.
A
surface warm pool sprang off the back of this beast, growing even as
it continued to gather heat, radiating it back into the atmosphere.
By yesterday, temperature anomaly values over this growing region had
increased to between 1 and 3 C above average with local spikes up to
+3.9 C — a far above normal temperature departure for ocean surface
waters, especially near the stable equator. But if trends hold, this
is just the beginning. An early start to what could be a
record-setting event.
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