I
have recently come into contact with "Juan" who currently
resides near the conflict area in the Ukraine. I don't personally
know Juan but I am confident that he/she is a person with a military
background and a first-hand knowledge of the Russian military,
including elite units. In our email exchanges we soon established
that while I was "one of 'them' who was buried under 15
kilometers of concrete, rock and steel" "Juan" was one
of the "poor ground pounders had to slog through the mud and
slime, rain and snow'. This gave me the idea to ask "Juan"
to provide the readers of this blog with an analysis of the conflict
in the Ukraine written from the point of view of somebody whose
career was on the front lines and not, like me, in air-conditioned
rooms with fancy computers and communication gear. I sincerely think
that this latter perspective is something this blog sorely needed and
I am delighted to be able to share it with you today.
A
big thank you to "Juan" for agreeing to share his views
with all of us!
The
Saker
*******
The
conflict in the Ukraine as seen by a professional solider:
Introduction:
I
have been asked by The Saker to share my view of the current conflict
in the Ukraine. I will provide no information that is not publicly
available if one wants to dig and one is observant with the many
videos available on the internet amongst other places. I will give my
opinion on the fighting capabilities of Russian soldiers (By Russian
Soldiers I mean ethnic Russians and citizens of the Russian
Federation serving in the Russian Army. This includes most, but not
all, on both sides of the Donbas and Lugansk fighting. It is meant as
neither a compliment nor a denigration.) but I will not answer any
questions, that will be up to the Saker, although he is free to
consult me about questions. I am apolitical publicly but I will give
an opinion in private. I have served. We will leave it at that with
the exception of stating while Saker was safely ensconced under more
than a few inches of concrete and steel, I was boots in the mud,
therefore he and I have a totally different view of events, his world
wide, mine what I could see through my weapon sights and not much
more.
I
will give my assessment of the military situation and forces arrayed
against each other in the Donbas and Lugansk Oblasti but first I will
say a little something about War. War is not a nice vocation, it is
not a nice event. War is almost always, operative term being almost,
a result of failed diplomacy. War is in essence an extension of
diplomacy and as such is almost always political one way or another.
Politics be damned, to us who have been to war, to us who have
fought, actually fought, we hate war more than anyone. For those of
you who have not been to war, and don't mean those of you who have
served in one way or another in your army, but those of you who never
picked up your weapon and went nose to nose with the proclaimed
enemy, fought him and won, you have no idea what it is like. You see
the videos, you see the AAR's (After Action Reviews, the synopsis of
what went right and want went wrong and why.), you read the endless
pontifications of the talking heads in the news media and the
politicians, but you have never seen real War unless you have stood
and fought, watched your enemy fall, watched your comrades fall, seen
the toll on civilians, walked the field after a battle, seen the
destruction, smelled the smells, heard the sounds, felt the fear (We
are always afraid before combat. It is our training and experience
that allows us to hide the fear from our comrades and the younger men
in the unit.). No, unless you have stood in the line you don't know
War.
For
most of you War is an abstract happening, something to talk about, to
play video games about, to laugh and joke about in the cafe or bar
after work, to urge one side or the other to attack, fight, do
something. If you only knew the reality of combat you would never
even whisper the word 'war', you would hang your politicians from the
nearest lamp post at the first beat of the war drums. We are
soldiers. You ask us to do this and we do this for you. In the West
we are as likely to be spit upon as thanked. When the war clouds
gather you scream for us to help you, to save you. We do what you ask
and for this many of you denigrate us. In Russia we are honored,
welcomed home, thanked for what we did. Yes, we who have been to war,
who have stood in the line and fought, we hate war. We also
understand more than most that there times, much as we hate it, that
one must fight. In my opinion this is one of those times when men
have to fight for Donbas and Lugansk.
One
more thing before I turn to the topic at hand: If you want to
understand Russia, Russians and Russian culture you must start by
studying Byzantium, it's history, culture, politics and religion.
Russia and ethnic Russians are the inheritor of this culture and
religion lock, stock and barrel, and study of Byzantium explains a
very great deal about Russia and Russians and points you in the
direction of further studies.
The
context
The
events in Kiev starting in very late November and going on to today.
The current government in Kiev came to power by way of a coup d'etat
in late February of this year. Shortly after that coup the citizens
of Crimea and Sevastopol felt threatened by the new government and
seized power in Crimea and Sevastopol. Shortly after seizing power
the citizens ask Russia for help and protection. Russian responded
with alacrity and within a few days Russian forces landed in and
around Kerch from Novorossiysk. The assistance to Crimea was a
bloodless accomplishment but in the event all the Ukrainian Army,
Navy and Air Force based in Crimea were surrounded and cut off. Many
immediately surrendered and the soldiers and sailors were offered the
choice of repatriation to Ukraine with their families or to join the
Russian Federation Armed Forces. Roughly 80% of the soldiers and
sailors, both officers and rankers, opted to join the Russian Armed
Forces. This tells a great deal about the morale of the Ukrainian
Armed Forces. For 23 years the various Ukrainian governments had
treated the armed forces budgets as a cash cow to be milked to
oblivion. The soldiers and sailors for the most part in Crimea, and
in reality of all Ukraine, were poorly equipped, poorly trained,
poorly fed and many of the lower ranks had not been paid since
November. Their armored vehicles, equipment, weapons and ships were a
disgrace. At least 8 of the Ukraine Navy ships were refused
repatriation by Kiev and are in the bone yard at Inkerman being cut
up for scrap as I write or scheduled to be towed there shortly. Some
tanks, BTR's and BMP's had not moved for literally years and had to
be towed to the rail heads for repatriation to Ukraine. Of the 39
aircraft at Belbek Air Base 4 were airworthy. The others could not
fly and some had been cannibalized to keep the 4 serviceable aircraft
flying.
After
Crimea voted to become part of the Russian Federation and were
accepted in the Federation, several regions in the east of Ukraine
became dissatisfied with the new government in Kiev and started to
demand more autonomy from Kiev, in other words they wanted to elect
their own leaders and administration heads and do away with the Kiev
appointed heads of same as was the practice for 20 odd years. Kiev
refused and Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast then seized their local
governments, ousted most of the appointed department heads and
declared themselves independent. Kiev promptly sent units of the
Ukraine Army to quell the unrest and most of the units refused to
fight their fellow countrymen and in some cases changed sides and
turned their armored vehicles over to the new Donbas Republic's armed
forces. This is to be expected in an army where most of the lower
ranks are conscripts, in for a year or two and then gone. The main
fallacy of the Ukraine Armed Forces is they do not have a
professional non commissioned officer corp, in other words sergeants,
as a general rule. In the basic infantry units the sergeants are
generally a conscript who has a bit more education or other
attributes that set him a slight cut above the average conscript. He
is selected and usually but not always sent to a short 'sergeant
school', returns to his assigned unit and is then out when his
conscription term us over. Sergeants are the backbone of a modern
army and have been for well over 100 years. They are the 'shop
supervisors' so to speak and translate the officer's orders in to
words and actions the troops understand and perform. Without
professional and long service sergeants the junior and senior
lieutenants have to do the sergeant's work in addition to their own
work. This adversely affects the work of the lieutenants and often
results in their captains doing some of the lieutenant's work, which
in turn adversely affects the captains work.
Basic
weapons
The
basic infantry weapon in the Ukraine Army is the AK 47 and it's later
derivative the AK 74.
The
AK 47 is an old design but reliable to an extreme. The weapon was
designed as an automatic rifle for a very large conscript army and is
quite simple and inexpensive to manufacture. It is easy and simple to
field strip and maintain and it generally is not affected by the dirt
and debris present on all battlefields. I have no idea how many
rounds of ball and blank I have fired from one but it is certainly in
the many thousands in both training and operations and I have never
had that weapon fail to operate reliably nor have I had a single
instance of the weapon jamming and failing to fire.
I
have also seen many other varieties of rifles and automatic hand held
weapons, most notable being in one video an SKS semi automatic rifle
was seen dating from, if my memory is correct, right after the second
world war, a PPSh41 of World War 2 fame, short, stubby and with a
round drum magazine attached to the bottom of the weapon and
basically a lead hose that is not much use at ranges over 200m if
that, and a Maxim machine gun on a metal two wheeled hand pulled
carriage probably dating from the first world war. I did not see any
ammunition for the Maxim so it may have been just for show. The first
two I have seen in the hands of both the Federalists and the Kiev
troops.
Both
the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use the Automat Kalashnikov in
it's many variants, both the 47 and the 74.
The
medium machine guns generally seen in the Donbas and Lugansk area are
mostly of the PK variety. The PK went in service in the early 1960's
and and is still standard issue today. The weapon was designed by
Mikhail Kalashnikov of AK fame. It is a reliable and simple machine,
easy to use, clean and maintain and quite robust. It feeds from the
right side using either open belted ammunition or boxed belts, the
box attached to the bottom of the weapon receiver housing. The weapon
fires the standard Russian round of 7.62 x 54 size, ever so slightly
longer than the NATO round of the same caliber. Cyclic rate is
between 700 and 800 rounds per minute and range is optimistically
listed at 100 to 1500 meters. The weapon fires from the 'open bolt'
system. When you release the trigger the weapon fires the round in
the chamber and the bolt locks open rather than staying closed as on
the AK variants. This it to facilitate belt changes when milliseconds
count. The weapon is usually seen with a bipod attached to the front
of the barrel but is also capable of being used on a tripod.
When
listing the cyclic rate of an automatic weapon, in particular a
machine gun, while the instruction sheet tells you that for instance
the weapon will deliver up to 800 rounds per minute, the gunner does
not want to fire that many rounds in one minute. The normal gunners
rate of fire is in 3 to 6 round bursts. The only time you will hear
sustained firing of a machine gun is generally when there is either a
massive target of opportunity or if the bad guys are close enough to
see the whites of their eyes. To fire a sustained burst of 800 rounds
in one minute will lead to rapid barrel erosion and overheating and
may well jam the weapon. This can put you in a decidedly awkward
situation when the bad guys hear the weapon go silent.
Again,
both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use this weapon in several
variants.
Tactics
and morale
I
have watched as much as time allows the videos and read both news
reports and reports from other sources about the situation in the two
oblasti. I will neither give the Kiev regime advice by publicly
telling what I think they are doing wrong tactically nor will I
reveal all I see that the Federalists are doing correctly beyond what
is publicly available via news or the internet.
The
coup government in Kiev was taken aback when some of the first
Ukraine Army units arrived in Donbas and promptly refused to fight.
Not only did they refuse to fight but some units went over to the
Federalist side bringing with them their weapons and BMP light
armored tracked fighting vehicles. These events were a tremendous
psychological and morale boost for the Federalists. The young
soldiers and their officers had been told they would be fighting
'terrorists' and 'separatists' and they were shocked when in the
villages they passed through or near the local citizens, dozens of
them, came unarmed and physically blocked the light armored units
advancing in the direction of Slavyansk with their very bodies. After
sometimes extended negotiations the units would either go over the
the Federalists or simply turn around and return to their base or
lager. In some instances this return to lager move had fatal
consequences for some of the soldiers as they were executed by Right
Sector operatives that very day. These executions were a mild variant
on the old French philosophy of 'we'll execute a few soldiers for the
encouragement of the others'. Reality is all armies have done this
from time to time, either openly or, as the saying goes, 'accidents
happen'.
The
reluctance to fight their visibly unarmed fellow citizens who were
obviously not terrorists and insisted to the boys that they were not
separatists but simply wanted more autonomy and had no intention of
leaving Ukraine was a turning point in the Donbas situation. I don't
know what the coup government expected but obviously they have
precisely zero experience in motivating soldiers and in tactics and
strategy.
Some
Ukraine Army units have fought, albeit not too well from what I know.
Will the remains of the Ukraine Army fight in what is to be the final
push tomorrow and Saturday? I do not know the answer to that
question. Only time will tell.
Now,
the 'national guard'. These units are almost exclusively right
sector, the 'victors' of maidan. They have had some of the best
advisors money can buy, all supplied from The West. Some of them have
been trained in musketry in their extensive system of training camps
in the west of Ukraine but most do not have any real military
training or experience. Those who signed up for the 'national guard'
units were given a crash course in 'soldier 101' lasting two weeks at
best and generally less, uniformed after a fashion, armed and sent
east. Will they fight? I don't know. I do know they are quite good at
appearing in towns and villages suddenly and in numbers, heavily
armed but never have I personally seen or heard of them actually
fighting in a stand up fight. They seem to be pretty good at
spreading terror amongst unarmed citizens and not much else. Most of
them are highly motivated and believe in what they are doing. It
remains to be seen how well they will fight when their adversaries
are shooting back. They do have some numbers on their side.
The
overall situation with the Ukraine Army is everything they have is
now in the East. They have large numbers of BMP and BTR light armored
infantry carriers and fighting vehicles. They have brought just about
every tank they have that will run and some of them, while aging
platforms, have been extensively upgraded and modernized with the
latest night vision devices and weapon sights and quite good reactive
armor packages. Most of the serviceable artillery, both towed and
self propelled
Air
assets are thin. When the Ukrainians first began to use their Mi24
attack helicopters, which is an excellent close support, anti
personnel and anti vehicle weapon, they lost several in two days.
Ukraine also has several Sukhoi ground attack aircraft and some,
actual number serviceable unknown, Migs of various types. The comment
of air assets being 'thin' is a bit misguiding in that the
Federalists have no air assets.The Federalists do have at least a few
shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles and that is what brought down
the 5 known destroyed Mi24 helicopters.
Tactics
on the part of the Ukriane Army have been poor. While few if any of
the actual Ukraine Army units have attacked the Federalists, the Mi24
choppers do seem to be piloted by airmen who will, indeed, attack. I
have watched a slow but steady incremental increase of types of
attacks and weapons used by the 'national guard' units attacking the
Federalists. On 17 May the first mortar shells were fired, just a few
and of 82 mm caliber, fired at a Fed blocking post. Kiev nervously
looked over their shoulders at the Russian Army glowering at them
from across the border, saw no repercussions to the first mortar
bombardment, and decided to up the ante the next day, 18 May. That
day the first 12 cm mortars were used in addition to the 82 mm
mortars of the day before. Also that day the first patently civilian
targets were hit and one single 12 cm howitzer shell was fired.
Again, no reaction from Russia.
By
20 May, with no visible reaction from Russia concerning the
increasing use of heavy weapons against both civilian targets and the
Federalist positions, Ukraine began to systematically bombard targets
of their choosing. The number of patently civilian casualties from 15
May to 23 May numbers over 50, some dead, most wounded.
On
22 May the first overt attack by 'national guard' units against a
Ukraine Army unit that refused to attack civilians occurred near
Volnovakha. The tactics used by the national guard were interesting
but almost standard for them of late. They arrived at the Ukraine
Army lager outside the village in lime green vans and at least one
white van, announced they were 'friends' and then started shooting at
the Ukraine Army soldiers. While they managed to kill and wound most
of the Army unit some did survive and most, after the initial
surprise, fought back with spirit. Casualties in the Army unit seem
to be in excess of 60 dead and wounded, on the national guard unit
not as many but more than a few.After the fighting stopped and the
wounded from both sides were removed, two Mi24 attack helicopters
identified as 'national guard' helicopters, attacked the area and
destroyed most of the trucks, ambulances and BMP's of the Ukraine
Army unit and the damaged national guard vans left in place. An
entire Ukraine Army armored company was thus destroyed by 'national
guard' units for refusing what in reality was an illegal order, to
wit, attack an unarmed village full of civilians.
This
incident alone will have very serious repercussions for the Kiev
government, although the international community is dead silent about
the killings. It shows that if you do not do what the Kiev government
tells you to do you will be killed. Every unit in the entire Ukraine
Army knew of this incident within an hour of it's happening. This
will adversely affect the morale and combat effectiveness of the
Ukraine Army from top to bottom. It is very possible that some
Ukraine units may either attack 'national guard' units or simply
change sides. That remains to be seen, but it is a fact that soldiers
can not be made to attack with weapons pointed at their backs from
the rear. They will be just as likely to turn on the enforcers as
they are to attack the perceived 'enemy'. There are already, as of
08:15 local time on 23 May, unconfirmed but reliable reports of two
Ukraine Army units going over to the Federalist side.
On
the Federalist side, tactics have been developed ad hoc using the
available units and soldiers. They have several advantages in that
most are local boys and they know the surrounding areas like the
backs of their hands, having grown up there. After seizing several
weapons storages in both Donetsk and Lugansk Oblast the Federalists
are now reasonably well armed and supplied with ordinance including
anti air missiles and anti tank weapons, antitank being both missiles
and RPG's plus a few old but as new condition antitank rifles which
have no trouble ventilating any BTR or BMP.
It
is obvious from their tactics that they hold no area that they are
willing to fight to the last man for at this moment that has been
aggressed by the Kiev forces. From what I have seen on the scattered
but continuous attacks on their 'blocking posts' they will generally
withdraw at the first sign of national guard presence in attack mode,
sit back and wait. The national guard unit will then take the post,
do the obligatory 'burn the barricade' drill, take what food is lying
around and leave. The Feds then return, rebuild the barricade, sit
back and have lunch. The Feds have lost men in these raids but the
losses have been low.
The
Federalists do often attack national guard units and the one Ukraine
Army unit that does seem willing to fight. The national guard units,
being generally on the defensive de facto, are in the position of
having to defend a large area and lack the manpower required to do
that. The Nats (I will do a name change now, or a shortening of
names. The Federalists will be known as the Feds, the national guard
and their allies will be known as the Nats) do have many strong
positions in some areas that the Feds are smart enough to not attack.
However, from readily available information it is obvious that the
Feds to attack and/or ambush Nat units often. They use the classic
tactic of having a local preponderance of force or, as the
Confederate General P. G. T. Beauregard said 150 years ago, 'I got
there fustus with the mostus', in other words local superiority at
the moment. Local superiority does not necessarily mean superior
numbers, it can, and often does, mean local surprise and instant
domination of the battle area by fire. The Feds do this drill by day
or night.
These
tactics seem to be working, at least for now. The Nats casualties for
the last month are well in excess of 600 dead and a like number of
wounded, wounded meaning anyone who is hurt one way or another badly
enough to be off duty for a time to full blown intensive care. For
the Feds casualties are not reliably known but have not been anywhere
near the numbers of Nat casualties. Civilian casualties there are no
reliable numbers for but from reliable sources do run over 200 dead
and wounded in the last month in the two oblasti.
If
the Kiev regime manages to attack throughout the entire area at one
time they will probably win this campaign as they seem to be
perfectly willing to accept civilian and military casualties and
damage that would not be looked well upon if known or reported by
national and international news media. The Feds are seriously, read
vastly, outnumbered and woefully under equipped. The Feds have but a
very few BMP light armored vehicles and a few captured BTR vehicles,
almost no artillery and zero air assets. They do have excellent
morale and do believe strongly in their cause.
Strategically,
I don't know. I'm not bad at tactics, being just a lowly veteran
sergeant, but from what I see Kiev is in the position of having to
attack and attack strongly on 23 and 24 May. Their masters are
adamant that they solve 'this problem' before the election scheduled
for 25 May. I have no doubts that at least some, not all but some, a
goodly number of 'some', of the Federalists will fight to the end to
hold their very few strategic locations.In reality they have no other
option, either fight to the death or be killed after the fact. Is
Kiev and their international backers and masters willing to do the
massive fighting this will entail in civilian areas and with the very
large civilian casualties this act will entail? I think so. Will
Russia intervene? I don't know and conjecture is useless on whatever
actions Russia may or may not take.
Only
time will tell how this unfolding tragedy will end, but my thoughts
are that Ukraine as it was last October is dead and gone, never to
arise again as we knew it.
(To
be continued)
Donetsk
bloodbath: Insider video shows Ukraine helicopters firing at own
checkpoint
Screenshot from youtube.com/user/MrTheVvideo
The
vehicle is at a field and the men are observing from a distance a
woodland belt separating on the field border At least two vans are
seen and fire burns among the trees. Sporadic gunfire can be heard,
possibly from ammunition detonating in the fire, and then a massive
explosion erupts at the camp. The soldiers discuss whether they
should fall back.
Then
two Mil Mi-24 helicopter gunships start barraging at low altitude
over the area. After several passes the aircraft start barraging the
burning camp from their cannons.
“What
are their doing?” one of the soldiers exclaims in surprise. “Are
they ours?” “Who the f*** else?”another replies.
The
group hastily flees the scene, but the cameraman continues shooting
the footage, cursing and praying as he runs
Screenshot from youtube.com/user/MrTheVvideo
A
couple of minutes later he gets to another woodland belt. He
approaches another Ukrainian military man, who is speaking on a
mobile phone.
“Who
are they shooting at?” the man says. “There are civilians and our
soldiers there. Do you have a line to the army aviation, what the
f*** is happening?”
“Two
[Mi-]24s and one [Mi-]8 arrived. They are flying over our checkpoint
and shooting at our checkpoint,” the report continues. “There are
lots of corpses there. We were dousing the burning BMP [infantry
combat vehicle], we thought the Mi-8 was going to pick up the bodies.
Now they are shooting.”
Ukrainian
troops use their helicopters in the fight against the local armed
militias opposing Kiev’s rule to destroy hardware damaged in the
clashes to prevent it from falling into the hands of the militias.
Miscommunication among the troops could have led to the aviation
command believing that the checkpoint was taken over by the militias.
The
video was uploaded on YouTube on Tuesday, which puts the timing of
the video hours after a night attack on the military checkpoint near
Volnovakha. The attack may not have been a militia raid, but rather a
case of friendly fire, in which one pro-Kiev unit mistakenly attacked
another unit.
The
battle left at least 16 Ukrainian troops killed and 30 others
injured..
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