This
is worthwhile reposting with the accompanying email released by
Wikileaks.
Blueprint
for regime change
NEW IRAN AND SYRIA 2.DOC
From:
To:
Date:
2001-01-01 03:00
Subject:
NEW IRAN AND SYRIA 2.DOC
UNCLASSIFIED
U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05794498
Date: 11/30/2015
RELEASE
IN FULL
The
best way to help Israel deal with Iran's growing nuclear capability
is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad.
Negotiations
to limit Iran's nuclear program will not solve Israel's security
dilemma. Nor will they stop Iran from improving the crucial part of
any nuclear weapons program — the capability
to
enrich uranium. At best, the talks between the world's major powers
and Iran that began in Istanbul this April and will continue in
Baghdad in May will enable Israel to postpone by a few months a
decision whether to launch an attack on Iran that could provoke a
major Mideast war.
Iran's
nuclear program and Syria's civil war may seem unconnected, but they
are. For Israeli leaders, the real threat from a nuclear-armed Iran
is not the prospect of an insane Iranian leader launching an
unprovoked Iranian nuclear attack on Israel that would lead to the
annihilation of both countries. What Israeli military leaders really
worry about -- but cannot talk about – is losing their nuclear
monopoly. An Iranian nuclear weapons capability would not only end
that nuclear monopoly but could also prompt other adversaries, like
Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to go nuclear as well. The result would be a
precarious nuclear balance in which Israel could notrespond to
provocations with conventional military strikes on Syria and
Lebanon, as it can today.
If
Iran were to reach the threshold of a nuclear weapons state, Tehran
would find it much easier
to
call on its allies in Syria and Hezbollah to strike Israel, knowing
that its nuclear weaponswould serve as a deterrent to Israel
responding against Iran itself.
Back
to Syria. It is the strategic relationship between Iran and the
regime of Bashar Assad in Syria that makes it possible for Iran to
undermine Israel's security — not through a direct attack, which in
the thirty years of hostility between Iran and Israel has never
occurred, but through its proxies
in Lebanon, like Hezbollah, that are sustained, armed and trained by
Iran via Syria. The end of the Assad regime would end this dangerous
alliance. Israel's leadership understands well
why
defeating Assad is now in its interests. Speaking on CNN's Amanpour
show last week Defense Minister Ehud Barak argued that "the
toppling down of Assad will be a major blow to the radical axis,
major blow to Iran.... It's the only kind of outpost of the Iranian
influence in the Arab world...and it will weaken dramatically both
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and Islamic
Jihad
in Gaza."
Bringing
down Assad would not only be a massive boon to Israel's security, it
would also ease Israel's understandable fear of losing its nuclear
monopoly. Then, Israel and the United States
might
be able to develop a common view of when the Iranian program is so
dangerous that military action could be warranted. Right now, it is
the combination of Iran's strategic alliance with Syria and the
steady progress in Iran's nuclear enrichment program that has led
Israeli leaders to contemplate a surprise attack — if necessary
over the objections of Washington. With Assad
gone, and Iran no longer able to threaten Israel through its,
proxies, it is possible that the United States and Israel can agree
on red lines for when Iran's program has crossed an
unacceptable
threshold. In short, the White House can ease the tension that has
developed with Israel over Iran by doing the right thing in Syria.
The
rebellion in Syria has now lasted more than a year. The opposition is
not going away, nor is the regime going to accept a diplomatic
solution from the outside. With his life and his family at risk, only
the threat or use of force will change the Syrian dictator Bashar
Assad's mind.
UNCLASSIFIED
U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05794498
Date: 11/30/2015
The
Obama administration has been understandably wary of engaging in an
air operation in Syria like the one conducted in Libya for three main
reasons. Unlike the Libyan opposition forces, the Syrian rebels are
not unified and do not hold territory. The Arab League has not called
for outside military intervention as it did in Libya. And the
Russians are opposed.
Libya
was an easier case. But other than the laudable purpose of saving
Libyan civilians from
likely
attacks by Qaddafi's regime, the Libyan operation had no long-lasting
consequences for the region. Syria is harder. But success in Syria
would be a transformative event for the Middle East. Not only would
another ruthless dictator succumb to mass opposition on the streets,
but the region would be changed for the better as Iran would no
longer have a foothold in the Middle East
from which to threaten Israel and undermine stability in the region.
Unlike
in Libya, a successful intervention in Syria would require
substantial diplomatic and military leadership from the United
States. Washington should start by expressing itswillingness to work
with regional allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to
organize, train and arm Syrian rebel forces. The announcement of such
a decision would, by itself, likely cause substantial defections from
the Syrian military. Then, using territory in Turkey and possibly
Jordan, U.S. diplomats and Pentagon officials can start strengthening
the opposition. It will take time. But the rebellion is going to go
on for a long time, with or without U.S. involvement.
The
second step is to develop international support for a coalition air
operation. Russia will never support such a mission, so there is no
point operating through the UN Security Council.
Some
argue that U.S. involvement risks a wider war with Russia. But the
Kosovo example shows otherwise. In that case, Russia had genuine
ethnic and political ties to the Serbs, which don't exist between
Russia and Syria, and even then Russia did little more than complain.
Russian
officials have already acknowledged they won't stand in the way if
intervention comes.
Arming
the Syrian rebels and using western air power to ground Syrian
helicopters and airplanes is a low-cost high payoff approach. As long
as Washington's political leaders stay firmthat no U.S. ground troops
will be deployed, as they did in both Kosovo and Libya, the costs to the
United States will be limited. Victory may not come quickly or
easily, but it will come. And the payoff will be substantial. Iran
would be strategically isolated, unable to exert its influence in the
Middle East. The resulting regime in Syria will see the United States
as a friend, not an enemy. Washington would gain substantial
recognition as fighting for the people in the Arab world,
not the corrupt regimes. For Israel, the rationale for a bolt from
the blue attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would be eased. And a
new Syrian regime might well be open to early action
on
the frozen peace talks with Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon would be cut
off from its Iranian sponsor since Syria would no longer be a transit
point for Iranian training, assistance and missiles. All these
strategic benefits and the prospect of saving thousands of civilians
from murder at the hands of the Assad regime (10,000 have already
been killed in this first year of civil war).
With
the veil of fear lifted from the Syrian people, they seem determine
tofight for their freedom. America can and should help them — and
by doing so help Israel and help reduce therisk of a wider war.
See
the original HERE
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