I
am always looking for signs of crop failures as a result of abrupt
climate change.
The
headline below seems to indicate that this is propaganda.
RT
This
season's grain production in Russia has beaten last year's bumper
crop and the record harvest set by the USSR in 1978, according to new
data revealed by the statistics agency Rosstat.
Russia
has harvested around 135.393 million tons of grain, including 85.9
million tons of wheat, during the current growing season. This is a
million tons more than the previous record. Russia’s agriculture
ministry revised its projections for exports, with 50 million tons of
grain now expected to be shipped abroad.
However,
you have to be careful for one’s own biases. Even though the crop
looks to be poorer than the last (the biggest on record) the graph
indicates that despite this the 2018-19 crop is still likely to be
the second largest crop in the past few years.
Russia's
Wheat Crop Under Threat From Miserable Start to Spring
- Cold delayed winter-crop growth resumption, spring plantings
- Analysts see next season’s output falling by at least 9%
25
April, 2018
Russia’s
poor start to spring means farmers may struggle to collect a wheat
crop that’s near to last year’s record.
Cold
weather in central areas and the Volga valley delayed the resumption
of winter wheat growth by about two to three weeks compared with last
year, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or
IKAR. Lingering
snow has
also given farmers in the world’s top exporter less time to sow
spring crops, potentially leading to smaller-than-expected plantings.
Smaller Wheat Crop
Russian
output is expected to be at least 9 percent smaller than a year
earlier
Source:
USDA for seasons through 2017-18; 2018-19 figure is average of
estimates from IKAR, ProZerno and SovEcon
That
prompted IKAR to cut its
harvest estimate to between 72 million and 78 million metric tons,
down at least 9 percent from a year earlier. Consultant ProZerno sees
bigger declines. The risk to Russian output comes as dryness is
threatening crops in the U.S. Plains and as the International Grains
Council expects global production to fall next season for the first
time in at least three years.
“The
growing conditions are less favorable than last year,” meaning
Russian yields will probably decline, said Oleg Sukhanov, chief of
grains research at IKAR. “Acreage will most likely be a bit less as
well.”
The
crop is still expected to be one of the biggest on record, and
there’s time for weather to affect output before farmers start
harvesting in a couple of months. For example, since May 2017, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture steadily raised its forecast for
Russia’s production this season from 67 million tons to 85 million
tons.
Conditions
are better in Russia’s south, the country’s main wheat-growing
and exporting region, and there’s a chance the harvest there will
be bigger than last year’s, Sukhanov said. Consultant ProZerno in
Moscow raised its
estimate for the total wheat crop by 2.7 percent earlier this month,
citing an improved outlook for the south. Rains in
central parts were “really good” for winter wheat in
the past week,
said Andrey Sizov Jr., SovEcon’s managing director.
Here’s
a breakdown of estimates:
- IKAR sees 2018-19 output at 72 million to 78 million tons.
- It previously forecast production at as much as 82 million tons.
- ProZerno expects the harvest to total 71.9 million tons.
- SovEcon predicts output to be 77.4 million tons.
The
price of both crops is now going up again. This is the first year
since I have been following the prices that there has been such a
persistent uptrend in prices. (especially corn)
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