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Just Set a Weather Record That Only Happens Every 500 Years
15
August, 2016
Louisiana declared
a state of emergency on
Friday. Why? The state is experiencing severe flooding that's left at
least three
people dead,
caused more
than 7,000 people to
need rescuing from their homes, and sent waist-deep water across the
state in a disaster described as "truly
historic" and "unprecedented."
But
the sobering news is that the weather now pummeling Louisiana is a
sign that climate change has upended all expectations of what's
unusual.
Edmon Collins
theadvocatebr: Aerial photos show Massive flooding in Denham Springs & Baton Rouge areas -- …
One
Bossier City, Louisiana, resident described the flooding as looking
like a"horror
movie." Other
state residents described it as the worst they've
seen in their lives. Even
Gov. John Bel Edwards and his wife, Donna, were forced to evacuate.
The
National Weather Service warned
of "significant to catastrophic flash flooding," adding:
"Obviously, we are in record territory."
Eric Holthaus
Latest statements from NWS New Orleans and NOAA WPC on ongoing heavy rain:
Please, please take this seriously.
The National Weather Service description of this weekend's storm couldn't be more accurate.
Louisiana's
downpour is being called a "classic
signal of climate change" because
of its extreme nature. And there's a good
reason:
In just 12 hours, the state saw as much rainfall as it should during
a typical three-month hurricane season.
Looked
at another way, some parts of Louisiana experienced a downpour of an
intensity that should occur only once every
500 years.
Radar-indicated 12+" of rain in last 12hrs near Kentwood, LA would be 500-year return period
http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=la …
This isn't good. And worse, it's not unique.
You
can expect to see more of these kinds of superstorms as the planet
warms, according to the National
Climate Change Assessment,
a study produced by more then 300 experts working with a 60-member
Federal Advisory Committee.
We've
already started to experience them. "By my count, it's the
eighth 500-year flood to strike the USA since May of 2015,"
meteorologist Paul Douglas said
with tongue in cheek. "Probably nothing to worry about."
He's
right. The same type of extreme 500-year flooding has already been
recorded at least eight
times so
far this year, in Maryland, South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, and
Virginia.
Other parts of the country are experiencing severe weather of their own.
Unless
you live under a rock, you probably know that California is
undergoing a severe drought. The last
five consecutive years have
been the driest
the state has ever seen,
according to official climate records.
And
it's not expected to get better anytime soon: Weather forecasters
arepredicting that
the La Niña weather pattern will occur again this winter, which is
supposed to bring cooler waters to the Pacific Ocean and drier
weather to the state. So much for a wet winter.
The takeaway: The old standards of climate prediction are officially dead.
Meteorologist
Eric Holthaus said that weather prediction is based on the ability of
meteorologists to look at climate data and infer patterns over time.
But because of our changing climate, that's no longer a sure bet, as
extreme weather events that should be rare become more and more
commonplace.
"Statistical
calculations like these make a major assumption: That the climate of
the past is the same as the climate of today," Holthaus
wrote. "That's
no longer a very good assumption."
Billion-DollarFlood Has Louisiana Reeling; 98L May Become a Tropical Depression
By:
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
10,000 in shelters after catastrophic flooding
Meanwhile in Europe
Forest fires in Greece, Spain and France
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