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New US Oil Well Permits Collapse 40% In November, Fed Still "Not Worried"?
Houston,
we have a problem-er. With
a third of S&P 500 capital expenditure due from the imploding
energy sector (and
with over 20% of the high-yield market dominated by these names),
paying attention to any inflection point in the US oil-producers is
critical as they have been gung-ho "unequivocally good"
expanders even as oil prices began to fall. So, when Reuters reports
a drop
of almost 40 percent in new well permits issued across the United
States in November,
even The Fed's Stan Fischer might start to question his lower
oil prices are "a phenomenon that’s making everybody better
off," may
warrant a rethink.
Data provided exclusively to Reuters on Tuesday by industry data firm Drilling Info Inc showed 4,520 new well permits were approved last month, down from 7,227 in October.
The pullback was a "very quick response" to U.S. crude prices, which settled on Tuesday at $66.88 CLc1, said Allen Gilmer, chief executive officer of Drilling Info.
New permits, which indicate what drilling rigs will be doing 60-90 days in the future, showed steep declines for the first time this year across the top three U.S. onshore fields: the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford in Texas and North Dakota's Bakken shale.
Gilmer said last month's pullback in permits was more about holding off on drilling good locations in a low-price environment than breaking even on well economics.
"I think in this case this was just a quick response, saying 'there are enough drill sites in the inventory, let's sit back, take a look and see what happens with prices,'" he said.
The
specifics are intriguing given the cost curves...
The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico showed a 38 percent decline in new oil and gas well permits last month, while the Eagle Ford and Bakken permit counts fell 28 percent and 29 percent,respectively, the data showed.
In addition to the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken, about 10 other regions tracked in Drilling Info's data showed declines as well. The Niobrara shale in Colorado and Wyoming saw a 32 percent decline in new permits, while the Granite Wash in Oklahoma and Texas and Mississippian Lime in Oklahoma and Kansas retreated 30 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
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This
is a precursor to more pain...
Gilmer said the pullback in new permits is a precursor to a decline in rigs. The U.S. land rig count has been largely flat since September, hovering around 1,860 oil and gas rigs, according to Baker Hughes Inc.
"This will show up," he said. "I expect we'll start seeing rig impact in a couple of months."
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Of
course, this should all be ignored because - like the NRF's reporting
of a double-digit decline in Black Friday sales and slowing Cyber
Monday - it would break the narrative for the US economic recovery,
lower oil prices are "unequiviocally good" narrative!
Chart:
Barclays
Name That Collapsing Nation
These
3 charts show 3 different nations. According to the mainstream media
memes:
one of these is an oil-rich socialist utopia on the verge of bankruptcy;
one is a nation nearing an economic renaissance thanks to devaluing its currency, money-printing, and fiscal irresponsibility; and
one is a nation that is isolated, sanctioned, economically-ravaged, resource-rich, that has hoarded gold...
So
which is which?
Click
image for the answer... (but guess first)
*
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Beauty
is in the eye of the beholder... or narrative writer it would seem.
*
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Bonus
Chart: This 4th chart represents the
industry that has been responsible for 93% of all jobs in this nation
in the last 5 years...
Click
image for the answer... (but guess first)
Venezuela Default Risk Surges To Jan 2009 Highs
Venezuela
CDS is surging once again this morning, even as oil prices stabilize
on the day, to its highest since January 2009 as traders increase
hedges or speculation that the nation will be forced to default on
its bonds. Current
prices imply around an 85% chance of default (likely
not helped by President Maduro's insistence that all is well and that
he will try to destrout the black market for dollars that implies a
massive devaluation is afoot for the Bolivar)
Highest
default risk since Jan 2009...
And
it appears since 2008, Venezuela has become entirely dependent on the
ticks in oil prices...
Charts:
Bloomberg
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