The
vast majority of oil existing on the balance sheets of the fossil
fuel industry are either stranded or destined to end most life on
earth.
One way of slowing down the extinction event we are witnessing
would be a moratorium on exploration for new fossil fuels.
This would
require reining in the fascist corporations that own us, as if that
is going to happen.
In NZ we have a corporate prime minister named
John Key who has just signed an the death warrant for the Maui's
dolphin of which we how have only 55 left by issuing exploration
rights in their tiny region of habitat.
Eco-terrorist psychopaths
rule the world if no one noticed.
---Kevin
Hester
Bankers
See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields
18
December, 2014
There
are zombies in the oil fields.
After
crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned
for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with
little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate
in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands
from Canada to Venezuela.
In
a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion
in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of
the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale
-- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment
that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S.,
the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to
crash it.
The
chart below shows the break-even points for the top 400 new fields
and how much future oil production they represent. Less than a third
of projects are still profitable with oil at $70. If the unprofitable
projects were scuttled, it would mean a loss of 7.5 million barrels
per day of production in 2025, equivalent to 8 percent of current
global demand.
How Profitable Is $70 Oil?
Source: Goldman
Sachs Global Investment Research. Annotated by Tom Randall/Bloomberg
Making
matters worse, Brent prices this week dipped further, below $60 a
barrel for the first time in more than five years. Why? The U.S.
shale-oil boom has flooded the market with new supply, global demand
led by China has softened, and the Saudis have so far refused to curb
production to prop up prices.
It’s
not clear yet how far OPEC is willing to let prices slide. The
U.A.E.’s energy minister said on Dec. 14 that OPEC wouldn’t trim
production even if prices fall to $40
a barrel.
An all-out price war could take up to 18 months to play out, said
Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a
financial research group in Washington.
If
cheap oil continues, it could be a major setback for the U.S. oil
boom. In the chart below, ClearView shows projected oil production at
four major U.S. shale formations: Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian and
Niobrara. The dark blue line shows where oil production levels were
headed before the price drop. The light blue line shows a new
reality, with production growth dropping 40 percent.
Even $75 Oil Crashes the Shale-Oil Party
Source:
ClearView Energy Partners LLC
The
Goldman tally takes the long view of project finance as it plays out
over the next decade or more. But the initial impact of low prices
may be swift. Next year alone, oil and gas companies will make final
investment decisions on 800 projects worth $500 billion, said Lars
Eirik Nicolaisen, a partner at Oslo-based Rystad Energy. If the price
of oil averages $70 in 2015, he wrote in an email, $150 billion will
be pulled from oil and gas exploration around the world.
An
oil price of $65 dollars a barrel next year would trigger the biggest
drop in project finance in decades, according to a Sanford C.
Bernstein analysis last week.
A
pause in exploration and development may sound like good news for
investors concerned about climate change. A vocal minority have
been warning for years that
potentially trillions of dollars of untapped assets may become
stranded due to climate policies and improved energy efficiency. The
challenges faced by oil developers today may provide a small sense of
what's to come.
However,
these glut-driven prices can’t stay low forever. Oil production
hasn’t slowed yet, but as zombie projects go unfunded, it will.
This is how the boom-bust-boom of the oil market goes: prices fall,
then production follows, pushing prices higher again. The longer this
standoff goes, the more zombies will languish and the sharper the
rebounding price spike may be
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