Tuesday 16 December 2014

Economic collapse

These reports are all from RT. Our zombie media refuses to recognise that anything is anything other than glowing.


OPEC won’t cut production even if oil below $40 – UAE energy minister

The UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei says OPEC will maintain output at 30 million barrels of oil a day, and wants to monitor the price for three months before even considering a meeting about possible changes.



RT,
15 December, 2014


We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Mazrouei told Bloomberg on Sunday at a conference in Dubai.


We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself,” he said commenting on a statement by a Venezuelan official on Friday who said the country may propose convening an extraordinary meeting of the cartel.

Mazrouei said an emergency OPEC meeting under current conditions isn’t justified. We need to wait for at least a quarter” to consider an urgent session, he said.


OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad El-Badri said Sunday he hadn’t heard anything about an emergency meeting. He believes oil prices aren’t yet in line with the market and the cartel hasn’t set a price goal, so an extraordinary meeting would not help to level the price.
We will not have a real picture about oil prices until the end of the first half of 2015,” El-Badri said. The price will have settled by the second half of next year, and OPEC will have a clear idea by then aboutthe required measures,” he said.
El-Badri added that the cartel’s decision isn’t aimed at weakening other oil producers or undermining rival economies.
Some people say this decision was directed at the United States and shale oil. All of this is incorrect. Some also say it was directed at Iran and Russia. This also is incorrect,” he said.

The price of oil has lost 20 percent since OPEC’s last meeting on November 27. On Monday the price of Brent crude has slightly recovered to $62.29 at 11 AM MSK after hitting a five-year low on Friday, at $61.65 per barrel. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for June 5.


Russian equities in worst slide in 5 years

Russia’s key stock indices have slid to their lowest level since 2009, as the currency fell to a new record low of 62 against the US dollar and 77 against the euro..


Reuters/Kacper Pempel

RT,
15 December, 2014


Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS index has lost more than 9 percent in Monday trading, with the MICEX benchmark losing 2.6 percent – the biggest fall since March 2009.

The Russian currency also hit a historic low of 62 rubles against the US Dollar and 77 against the euro, data from the Moscow Exchange shows. The oil prices were slightly recovering during the day, but later started sliding again with Brent crude futures being at about $61.67 a barrel and WTI at $57.14 a barrel.
Overall, the Russian currency has lost about 84 percent since the start of the year, with the oil price slipping 46 percent from its peak price of $115 in June.
The fall comes despite efforts by the Central Bank of Russia making random market interventions after itallowed the currency to free float in mid-October. On December 11 it sold $478 million to help prop up the currency, with the total amount spent this year standing at about $80 billion.

Last week the regulator also increased its benchmark interest rate to 10.5 percent, hoping this will help cap inflation and stop a ruble slide.

The CBR chief Elvira Nabiullina said then that the currency was undervalued by 10-20 percent and in 2015 it will strengthen.

She also said that the regulator was ready to spend another $85 billion next year in a so-called 'stress scenario', should the oil price remain below $60 a barrel.
Russian foreign currency reserves have now drained to a five-year low of $416 billion.

No passengers, no planes: ‘Ghost’ airports of Europe

Across crisis-stricken Europe ‘ghost’ airports have freshly painted tarmac, shiny new doors and all the nuts and bolts in place - but no passengers and no airplanes, giving them an eerie aura.



Rzeszow airport in Poland (Photo from wikipedia.org)

RT,
15 December, 2014


Soaring costs have delayed the ribbon cutting ceremonies, as Europe’s worst recession in 100 years has killed the projects.


The European Commission dispensed millions of euro in funding to boost the infrastructure at regional airports, but they are waiting for travelers and planes that never came, and have become symbols of reckless spending.

The difficulty you have with the European Union is that ultimately it has all this money that it wants to divest in patronage through grants and all sorts of different sinecures, throughout the land of the 28 nations, and it wants to try and make an economic impact,” Patrick Young, a financial expert, told RT.

People in Brussels “believe money grows on trees, that is the fundamental problem that is pushing the EU towards breaking point,” Young said.
Lublin Airport in Poland. (Photo from wikipedia.org)
Lublin Airport in Poland. (Photo from wikipedia.org)


Poland, which joined the EU in 2004, and has been lauded by the Commission for its economic reforms and financial responsibility, received over $125 million (€100 million) to help build and upgrade 12 airports.


Lublin and Rzeszow are in the forested and hilly east part of the country and haven’t yet opened. Lodz airport was given a facelift, but has failed to attract passengers as it’s located just a 50 minute drive away from Warsaw, the country’s largest airport Lodz opened in 2012.

Poland received €615.7 million from the EU to support these financial black holes between 2007 and 2013, according to figures provided by the European Commission to Reuters.
Rzeszow airport in Poland (Photo from wikipedia.org)
Rzeszow airport in Poland (Photo from wikipedia.org)


The airports failed to attract budget airlines to operate flights in between the small cities and bigger hubs.


The relationship between the local airports and low-cost carriers is suicidal,” Jacek Krawczyk, former chairman of Polish national airline LOT told Reuters.

Poland is not the only country in Europe to spend fortunes on white elephants.
Lodz airport south of Warsaw, Poland (Photo from wikipedia.org)
Lodz airport south of Warsaw, Poland (Photo from wikipedia.org)


To the south, Spain received the second biggest allowance from the EC to build airports, which are also failing to attract commercial flights. The situation is so dire that one of them, Ciudad Real airport in central Spain, is up for sale at 10 percent the price it cost to build. The airport opened in 2008 and cost €1.1 billion to construct, and closed in 2012, and it now has a price tag of €100 million. No commercial flights have operated since 2011.

On the eastern coast, the €150 million Castellon-Costa airport in Valencia built in 2011 has never seen a single plane land. The runway isn’t long enough to get the license needed to run commercial flights. The airport’s operator anticipates it will serve 50,000 passengers in 2015, and 200,000 by 2017.

Around 80 airports in Europe attract fewer than 1 million passengers a year and about three-quarters of those are in the red, according to industry body Airports Council International.
Yet to be opened Ciudad Real airport (Photo from wikipedia.org)
Yet to be opened Ciudad Real airport (Photo from wikipedia.org)


Germany has spending problems as well when it comes to airports. Berlin’s Brandenburg airport will likely need another €3.2 billion to finally open its doors on top of the €5.4 billion already spent.


Berliners have been waiting for their new facility to open since 2011, but will likely have to wait until 2016 or 2017. It is located south of Berlin next to Schonefeld Airport which is currently operating


Dubai Crashed, Qatar Crashed, And The Rest Of The Gulf States Got Smoked
dubai yearlyBloomberg.comDubai had the world's hottest stock market to start 2014; amid the crashing price of oil, Dubai's market has given it almost all back.

14 December, 2014


Kuwait City (AFP) - Share prices in energy-rich Gulf Arab states fell sharply at the start of the week Sunday, dragged down after oil prices plunged to new lows.

The decline was across the board on almost all of the region's seven bourses, as investors went into a panic sell-off soon after trading kicked off.
Dubai's benchmark DFM Index lost 6.2 percent to 3,373.51 points, pulled down by market leader Emaar Properties, which shed 8.0 percent, and construction giant Arabtec, which lost 7.2 percent.
The index shed 7.2 percent on Thursday.
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange recovered slightly at mid-session, trading down 3.6 percent at 4,212.07 points with energy stocks declining 5.3 percent and the real estate and banking sectors also falling.
The Saudi Tadawul All-Shares Index, the largest in the Arab world, dipped 3.3 percent to 8,113.22 points, a 12-month low.
dubai 3 monthBloomberg.comA disastrous last three months for the Dubai stock market.

Leading the decline was the petrochemicals sector, with Saudi Basic Industries Co. SABIC losing 5.6 percent.
The main index on the Qatar Exchange, the second biggest bourse in the Gulf, dived 7.2 percent to 10,959.0 points, a level last seen in early January. Market leaders in banking and industry contributed to the slide.
Kuwait Stock Exchange deepened losses, losing 3.2 percent to 6,254.62 points, a 22-month low, despite the listing of VIVA, a third mobile phone operator 26 percent-owned by Saudi Telecom.
The Muscat Securities Market lost 2.72 percent to 5,649.49 points, while the Bahrain bourse was unchanged.
Global oil prices tanked Friday to fresh five-year lows after a gloomy crude demand downgrade from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and more weak Chinese economic data.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for January delivery plunged to $58.80 per barrel -- the lowest level since May 20, 2009 -- having already closed under the psychological level of $60 on Thursday.
Brent crude for January meanwhile slipped to $62.75 in morning London deals, striking a low point last witnessed on July 16, 2009.
The oil market -- which has shed almost 50 percent since June -- plumbed the latest lows after the Paris-based IEA slashed its 2015 demand outlook, despite plunging prices.
The six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates -- depend heavily on oil revenues which make up around 90 percent of their total income.oil price skitch


Slumping oil price undercuts Stephen Harper: Goar
Harper rails at environmental advocates as his oil-centred economic vision runs aground.
The central pillar of Stephen Harper’s economic strategy — being an aggressive fossil fuel exporter — has crumbled in a world awash with petroleum.
ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS
The central pillar of Stephen Harper’s economic strategy — being an aggressive fossil fuel exporter — has crumbled in a world awash with petroleum.

15 December, 2014


It would be “crazy economic policy” to regulate greenhouse gases in the oil and gas sector with petroleum prices dropping, Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Parliament last week. “We will not kill jobs and we will not impose the carbon tax the opposition wants to put on Canadians.”
  • About as crazy as putting all the nation’s eggs in one basket: Canada becoming a global “energy superpower.”
  • About as crazy as ignoring the boom-and-bust history of the oil and sector.
  • About as crazy as assuming people will allow pipelines to snake under their land, carrying bitumen from Alberta’s oilsands to refineries in Texas and tankers on the Pacific coast.
  • About as crazy as forbidding federal scientists to say anything about climate change and threatening to revoke the charitable tax status of voluntary organizations that seek to protect the environment.
  • About as crazy as neglecting the price Canadians are already paying for climate change: power outages, damaged homes, spoiled food, lost productivity, higher insurance premiums, the cost of stocking up on everything from generators to non-perishable food.
  • About as crazy as pledging to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17 per cent at a 2009 climate change conference in Copenhagen without any plan to limit the carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide spewed into the atmosphere by the oil and gas industry.
Harper was right in one respect. This would be an inopportune time to crack down on Alberta’s energy producers, which are reeling from a 40-per-cent drop in oil prices since June. He should have done it in 2008 when the price of oil peaked at $145 a barrel. He had another chance after the 2008-2009 recession when it reached a high of $100 a barrel in early 2011. He could have done it last spring when it was $115 a barrel.

But he always had an excuse for not moving. The economy was too fragile. Canada dared not get out of step with the United States. The science of climate change was unproven. Curbing greenhouses gases would put Canada at a competitive disadvantage to nations such as China, India and Russia. A technological solution — carbon capture and storage for example — would come long.

Until recently, the silent majority was acquiescent. The cost of heating their homes and filling up their gas tanks mattered more to voters than the notional damage done by greenhouse gases. The embarrassment of having the worst climate change record in the industrial world didn’t affect them personally.

But the cost-benefit balance has changed. The central pillar of Harper’s economic strategy — being an aggressive fossil fuel exporter — has crumbled in a world awash with petroleum. Investors are cancelling their commitments. Employment in the oil and gas sector is shrinking. Government revenues are dropping.

Even if there were an appetite for Alberta’s viscous oil, it would be landlocked. President Barack Obama is withholding approval for the Keystone XL pipeline. First Nations in British Columbia are dead set against the Northern Gateway pipeline.

The provincial premiers, tired of waiting for leadership from Ottawa, have hatched their own plan to build a low-carbon economy by putting a price on pollution, developing renewable energy and capping greenhouse gases.

The fiscal outlook has darkened. The Conservatives may squeak through this year with a balanced budget, but the escalating surpluses they are projecting out to 2020 will melt if revenue from the oil patch keeps plummeting.

Public opinion is shifting. More than half of Canadians expressed deep concern about climate change in a poll conducted by the Environics Institute in October. Three-quarters said they were worried about the legacy they were leaving for future generations.

All of this — combined with increasingly bleak economic forecasts — casts doubt on Harper’s assiduously burnished reputation as a prudent manager and undercuts his rationale for sacrificing the environment to spur economic growth.

As Canada heads into an election year, the prime minister might want to stop tossing around words like “crazy.”


Russia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17%


15 December, 2014


Following the biggest rout to the Ruble in ages, Russia - unlike Mario Draghi - instead of talking the talk decided to walk the bazooka walk and shocked all those long the USDRUB by unleashing an emergency rate hike (at 1 am in the morning)from the recently raised interest rate of 10.50% to... hold on to your hats... 17.00%, a 650 bps increase!

From the press release:







The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia has decided to increase from December 16, 2014 the key rate to 17.00% per annum. This decision was driven by the need to limit significantly increased in recent devaluation and inflation risks. 
In order to enhance the effectiveness of interest rate policy loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for a period of 2 to 549 days from 16 December 2014 will be granted at a floating interest rate established at the level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia increased by 1.75 percentage points (Previously these loans for a period of 2 to 90 days, provided at a fixed rate).
In addition, to enhance the capacity of credit institutions to manage their own currency liquidity was decided to increase the maximum amount of funds to repurchase auctions in foreign currency for a period of 28 days from 1.5 to 5.0 billion. US dollars, as well as on similar operations for a period of 12 months on a weekly basis.

And for the Russian-speakers, the full breakdown of rates.


Few markets are open but the 1month forward Ruble market just dropped (Ruble rallied) over 2.5 handles...

RSX (ETF) is starting to rally after-hours...


Chart: Bloomberg


UK energy firms go under as oil price tumbles
Insolvencies among UK oil and gas services companies treble in 2014 amid fears of falling demand and oversupply



15 December, 2014

The tumbling oil price has led to a trebling of insolvencies among UK oil and gas services companies so far this year, while £55bn of further oil projects reportedly under threat.

Brent crude closed below $62 a barrel on Friday, a five-and-a-half-year low, amid fears of falling demand and oversupply as the global economy slows down.

A decison last month by Opec, which supplies about 40% of the world’s oil, to keep production unchanged despite the price fall only served to send crude sliding even lower.

On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates energy minister, Suhail Al-Mazrouei, said Opec would not cut crude output even if the price dropped as low as $40 a barrel. He told Bloomberg at a conference in Dubai: “We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40. We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilise itself.”

A report due on Monday from accountancy firm Moore Stephens said 18 businesses in the UK oil and gas services sector had become insolvent in 2014 compared with just six last year. It said that although the increase was from a low base, it was significant because insolvencies in the sector had been rare over the last five years.

Jeremey Willmont at Moore Stephens said: “The fall in the oil price has translated into insolvencies in the oil and gas services sector remarkably quickly. The oil and gas services sector has enjoyed very strong trading conditions for the last 15 years, so perhaps they have not been quite so well prepared for a sustained deterioration in trading conditions as other sectors would have been.

There was a sharp drop in the oil price during the financial crisis, but the sense that oil prices could be depressed for some time is much more widespread this time around.

It is clear that oil and gas majors are already cutting costs. Both Shell and BP have recently announced cuts to investment in a number of major projects. Smaller players are also reconsidering their capital deployment. If this retrenchment continues the result will be less work for oil and gas services companies.”

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has estimated that 32 potential European oil field developments worth more than £55bn are waiting for approval and could be at risk if oil prices continue to slump.

Wood Mackenzie’s James Webb told the Sunday Telegraph that more than 70% of the reserves at projects yet to be finalised had a breakeven price in excess of $60 a barrel.



Falling Oil Prices Push Venezuela Deeper Into China's Orbit
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had a Plan B in the event the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries declined to back his country’s proposal to cut output to boost prices.


12 December, 2014


The day after OPEC’s Nov. 27 decision to maintain production at current levels, a move that drove oil prices to new lows, a somber-looking Maduro went on national television to tell the Venezuelan people he was dispatching Finance Minister Rodolfo Marco Torres to Beijing. Torres spent the first week of December in China, during which he tweeted photos of his meetings with Chinese officials and bankers.

The late Hugo Chávez cozied up to China as part of his drive to curb U.S. influence in the Americas. Maduro, like his predecessor, has relied on Beijing to underwrite Venezuela’s flagging socialist revolution and finance the country’s gaping fiscal deficits (this year’s shortfall could amount to 15 percent of gross domestic product). Without loans from the Chinese, Maduro’s government might not have been able to weather a deep economic crisis. Under his watch, Venezuelans have had to put up with massive shortages of basic goods, the world’s highest inflation rate, and a steep currency devaluation.

Beijing has so far been happy to oblige Maduro. Since 2007, China has advanced Venezuela about $46 billion in loans repayable in oil, of which about $20 billion has been repaid. The latest loan agreement was in July, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the country and pledged $5.69 billion in credits.
Now Maduro needs more. The price of Venezuela’s market basket of crude and petroleum products is now skirting $60 a barrel. Many analysts estimate that the Maduro government needs a price of $120 a barrel to avoid cutting back or postponing spending commitments.

Maduro would like the Chinese to bail him out,” says Risa Grais-Tarnow, an analyst with the Eurasia Group. “I think the Chinese will have no problems in renewing existing lines of credit. However, they may not be willing to give Venezuela more funds.”

Beijing’s largesse has come at a price. Chinese goods are flooding the Venezuelan market, as many Chinese credits are tied to the import of products and services. The low-priced imports are squeezing local companies.
Chinese cars are now the best-selling models in Venezuela, largely because Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Toyota (TM) have been forced to shut their assembly lines in Venezuela because they cannot buy dollars to pay for shipments of auto parts.

Home appliances now come largely from China, as do many telephones and computers. Chinese construction companies are building public housing and other infrastructural projects, while the two countries have dozens of joint ventures under study. Venezuela has also had to buy three Chinese communications satellites, although the need is questionable given the country’s other problems.
Not all Venezuelans welcome China’s growing influence. “I don’t know why they are bringing in Chinese construction workers to build apartments for us,” says Geraldo Lopez, a 27-year-old bricklayer in the central industrial city of La Victoria. “We don’t have enough work for ourselves, yet they’re giving these contracts to Chinese companies who don’t employ us.”

Beijing’s imports of Venezuelan oil and petroleum products, mostly fuel oil, have soared in the past eight years. From just 50,000 bbl/day in 2006, they now total 540,000 bbl/day, according to oil ministry officials. About two-thirds of the exports are believed to be loan repayments (the terms of the credits have never been released). Many analysts suspect that state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) gives Beijing a discount to cover shipping.

PDVSA receives no money for the oil it sends to China, which has contributed to cash-flow problems. The company had been forced to increase its borrowing to cover costs: Its debt is up more than 10-fold in the past seven years, to more than $40 billion, and that excludes loans extended by the central bank. The situation has hamstrung PDVSA’s ability to invest in oil projects, so even as Maduro boasts that Venezuela has the largest crude reserves in the world, actual production continues to decline. “PDVSA doesn’t receive anything from exports to China. And that means it just doesn’t have the money to grow production,” says Fernando Sánchez, who is vice president of the Venezuelan Society of Petroleum Engineers.

With output falling, PDVSA has had to cut exports to the U.S.—which for decades has been the primary market for Venezuelan crude—so it has enough for the Chinese. In 2006, Venezuela exported an average of 1.42 million barrels of crude and petroleum products daily to the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Energy. For the first nine months of this year, exports averaged 800,000 bbl/day. And if Maduro makes good on his promise to boost exports to China to 1 million bbl/day in the following years, further reductions in U.S shipments are a given.


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