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"The U.S. is ready to fight the Russians down to the last Ukrainian soldier."
---Peter Lavelle
---Mark Sleboda
The above quote from Peter Lavelle really says it all. America and its NATO puppets are fighting a proxy war against Russia. It is a cold war but it is also a hot one.
On the economic front (more on this seperately) the price of oil is collapsing that has led to a collapse in the price of the rouble as well as the markets of all the oil-producing countries. This will come home to bite the US and its dependence on shale oil to keep the game going. It cannot exist at present prices.
However, for now the major effect is on "emerging markets".
While this is clearly linked to Peak Oil (the Saudis are incapable of increasing production) there is no doubt that the Americans are using this as an additional weapon against Russia, hoping to collapse the Russian economy in the same way as they did the stagnant Soviet economy in the late 80's.
This won't work.
From Peter Lavelle:
In the meantime the Americans have passed a bill to impose further sanctions and while Obama is to sign off on "lethal aid" to their fascist friends by week's end there is anecdotal evidence that NATO equipment has already arrived in Kharkov, in Eastern Ukraine.
The above quote from Peter Lavelle really says it all. America and its NATO puppets are fighting a proxy war against Russia. It is a cold war but it is also a hot one.
On the economic front (more on this seperately) the price of oil is collapsing that has led to a collapse in the price of the rouble as well as the markets of all the oil-producing countries. This will come home to bite the US and its dependence on shale oil to keep the game going. It cannot exist at present prices.
However, for now the major effect is on "emerging markets".
While this is clearly linked to Peak Oil (the Saudis are incapable of increasing production) there is no doubt that the Americans are using this as an additional weapon against Russia, hoping to collapse the Russian economy in the same way as they did the stagnant Soviet economy in the late 80's.
This won't work.
From Peter Lavelle:
"All the idiots in the west cheering the ruble’s challenges should remember Russia is the BIGGEST consumer market in Europe. Are those laughing the loudest still laughing now? Wake up – everyone is losing except the minority political class in the west. Stop being the victim of media manipulation".
In the meantime the Americans have passed a bill to impose further sanctions and while Obama is to sign off on "lethal aid" to their fascist friends by week's end there is anecdotal evidence that NATO equipment has already arrived in Kharkov, in Eastern Ukraine.
From Vladimir Suchan, via Facebook
Boris Rozhin reports that, in the last four days, 32 NATO cargo planes delivered weapons to the airports in East Ukraine that were closed to civilian traffic just before that. Other military supplies came through the port of Odessa, and Rozhin also confirms two trains with armored vehicles sent by NATO/US to Ukraine in the last week.
Rozhin also drew attention to yet another Lavrov's statement published today. Lavrov called Poroshenko "the best chance which Ukraine has today." Poroshenko was one of the organizers, leaders, and financiers of the Maidan and he was the commander in chief for most of the war in Donbas.
The there are these videos -
Американская военная техника уже на Украине?
American weaponry already in Ukraine?
Поезд с военной техникой армии США проехал по Латвии
A train with US weaponry passed through Latvia
Pay careful attention to this article
United States is Creating
Three Military Bases in
Ukraine
J.K.: American Senate adopted an openly anti-Russian act, according to which, besides military aid Ukraine will receive lethal weapons. Without a doubt, there is a great likelihood that all of this will be directed against Russia, and a risk of war in Crimea increases several times. Besides, in the nearest future NATO bases may appear in Ukraine. About a military threat to Russia and military sanctions against it speaks a military expert, Army Reserve Colonel, Alexander Zhilin.
A.Z.: Yes, the document which the Senate has adopted is certainly very very telling. Look, everything is done in synchronicity, the new fascist Rada received a bill to cancel the neutral status of Ukraine, and immediately this document, which we are talking about, was adopted by the Americans. What does this mean? It means that the territory of Ukraine becomes a military platform. It means that in the nearest future Ukraine will be pumped with American weapons. It means that, as planned, Americans will first open three military bases in Ukraine. They will not be called military bases, they will be called "Centers for Preparation of Military Specialists for the National Army of Ukraine", but they will be de facto military bases.
Will that bring peace to Ukraine? No. Why? Because, according to what has been planned, Ukraine has to turn into a naked steppe, on foundation of which will be built a principally new society. Therefore in Ukraine SBU is planning terrorist attacks, local conflicts, gang activity to pillage and murder, they have to maximally liquidate the native population. And then Germany will enter the game, and will begin to form conditions on this territory to implement a modified Marshall Plan 2 - a plan to create a belt of destabilization to destabilize situation in Russia and create a platform for a military attack on our country, if needed. Why is this platform advantageous? Because - count how many kilometers are there between Moscow, where we are standing now, to those military bases which will be open by the Americans and NATO in Ukraine, - it's nothing.
Considering that the Americans are entering an era of exploitation of principally new weapons, which fly with hyper-speed, then our entire system of defense will be subjected to a lot of pressure. In this regard, from one perspective we must invest in defense, but if we look at the effectiveness from a conceptual perspective, the army is only sixth in the hierarchy of effectiveness of national defense. What do I mean? Look at Switzerland, their army is only 1,500 people. Will anyone attack Switzerland? All the riches of the world and the major banks and vaults are concentrated in Switzerland Not one idiot will attack this country. We have to operate like China, where, I want to stress, two years ago appeared a new position - First Deputy Head of General Staff in charge of Economic Wars. They are not only planning for nuclear attacks, they are planning for economic attacks, economic defense. They are looking into tomorrow.
I have to say the following - we still have time. But if we only focus on pseudo-tactical tasks - fix here, fix there, went to Turkey, looks like got a deal, went to China, didn't get credits - this is not politics, this is child play. We need a strategic line of a great country, which has to pursue a policy which will put us in the center of world processes, just as it used to be before, when our great weapons were heard around the world and not one cannon in the world could shoot without a permission form our great country.
Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com
A.Z.: Yes, the document which the Senate has adopted is certainly very very telling. Look, everything is done in synchronicity, the new fascist Rada received a bill to cancel the neutral status of Ukraine, and immediately this document, which we are talking about, was adopted by the Americans. What does this mean? It means that the territory of Ukraine becomes a military platform. It means that in the nearest future Ukraine will be pumped with American weapons. It means that, as planned, Americans will first open three military bases in Ukraine. They will not be called military bases, they will be called "Centers for Preparation of Military Specialists for the National Army of Ukraine", but they will be de facto military bases.
Will that bring peace to Ukraine? No. Why? Because, according to what has been planned, Ukraine has to turn into a naked steppe, on foundation of which will be built a principally new society. Therefore in Ukraine SBU is planning terrorist attacks, local conflicts, gang activity to pillage and murder, they have to maximally liquidate the native population. And then Germany will enter the game, and will begin to form conditions on this territory to implement a modified Marshall Plan 2 - a plan to create a belt of destabilization to destabilize situation in Russia and create a platform for a military attack on our country, if needed. Why is this platform advantageous? Because - count how many kilometers are there between Moscow, where we are standing now, to those military bases which will be open by the Americans and NATO in Ukraine, - it's nothing.
Considering that the Americans are entering an era of exploitation of principally new weapons, which fly with hyper-speed, then our entire system of defense will be subjected to a lot of pressure. In this regard, from one perspective we must invest in defense, but if we look at the effectiveness from a conceptual perspective, the army is only sixth in the hierarchy of effectiveness of national defense. What do I mean? Look at Switzerland, their army is only 1,500 people. Will anyone attack Switzerland? All the riches of the world and the major banks and vaults are concentrated in Switzerland Not one idiot will attack this country. We have to operate like China, where, I want to stress, two years ago appeared a new position - First Deputy Head of General Staff in charge of Economic Wars. They are not only planning for nuclear attacks, they are planning for economic attacks, economic defense. They are looking into tomorrow.
I have to say the following - we still have time. But if we only focus on pseudo-tactical tasks - fix here, fix there, went to Turkey, looks like got a deal, went to China, didn't get credits - this is not politics, this is child play. We need a strategic line of a great country, which has to pursue a policy which will put us in the center of world processes, just as it used to be before, when our great weapons were heard around the world and not one cannon in the world could shoot without a permission form our great country.
Translated by Kristina Rus for FortRuss.blogspot.com
A lot of the best material comes from other sources from within Russia, some of which is translated into English.
I wouldn't even be taking the semi-official RT as a primary source these days. A lot of its coverage is looking increasingly sanitised and careful.
I wouldn't even be taking the semi-official RT as a primary source these days. A lot of its coverage is looking increasingly sanitised and careful.
Russian sanctions bill to be
signed by end of week –
White House
A new bill imposing further sanctions on Russia is to be signed by US President Barack Obama by the end of the week, a White House spokesman told a news briefing Tuesday.
16 December, 2014
White House press secretary Josh Earnest said that Obama is expected to sign new legislation this week despite preliminary concerns about its content. “I would anticipate that it would get done before the end of the week,” he said.
However, he said that the bill has provided a degree of flexibility required by the president.
“That said, because it does preserve the president's flexibility to carry out the strategy, he does intend to sign the bill,” Earnest said.
Obama was under pressure from both Republicans and Democrats after the Senate granted final approval to the bill late Saturday. The bill will see some $350 million provided to Ukraine by way of assistance.
“On behalf of the people’s House, I urge President Obama to sign this bipartisan legislation,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement on Monday.
The bill would additionally require the further imposition of conditional sanctions on the defense sector, such as penalties on state-owned arms dealer Rosoboronexport (among other defense companies) as well as connected individuals.
The 'Ukraine Freedom Support Act' does not make sanctions fully obligatory and allows Obama to have power over which parts of the bill to enforce.
However, "it does send a confusing message to our allies because it includes some sanctions language that does not reflect the consultations that are ongoing," Earnest said.
The new sanctions come amid concerns over the stability of the Russian ruble, which nosedived Tuesday following a decline in oil prices and previous rounds of sanctions imposed by both the US and the EU.
Zero Hedge, on the other hand has been doing an excellent job on both the economic/financial and geopolitical aspects of the war.
Obama To Sign Off On Lethal
US Aid To Ukraine By End Of
Week, Russian Response To
Follow
16 December, 2014
As we reported over the weekend, in the tumult surrounding Citigroup's annexation of Congress with the passage of the theatrically dramatic $303 trillion derivative quid-pro-$1.1 trillion spending quo, what most missed is that Congress also unanimously passed the The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, which not only expands Russian sanctions (read the details here) but far more impotantly, provides "lethal assistance to Ukraine’s military." And as we explained, passage of this law is just the pretext some Russian legislators needed to push for a full-blown, preemptive military incursion in east-Ukraine.
“The decision of the US Senate is extremely dangerous. If it is supported by the House of Representatives and signed by their president, Russia must reply with adequate measures,” Mikhail Yemelyanov of the Fair Russia party told reporters on Friday.
"It is quite possible that we should return to the decision by our Upper House and give the Russian president an opportunity to use military force on Ukrainian territory preemptively. We should not wait until Ukraine is armed and becomes really dangerous,” the lawmaker stated.
Yemelyanov also noted that in his opinion the US Senate’s decision to arm Ukraine had revealed that Washington wasn’t interested in the de-escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. He then said that US actions gave him the impression they was seeking to turn Ukraine into some sort of an “international militant targeting the Russian Federation.”
“In a few years Ukraine will turn into a poor and hungry country with an anti-Russian government that will teach its population to hate Russia. They will be armed to the teeth and Ukraine and US reluctance to recognize the Russian Federation within its current borders would always provoke conflicts,” the MP said.
Furthermore, we asked if "this means that what was a lingering proxy cold civil war in east Ukraine between NATO-armed Ukraine troops and Russia-armed Separatists and local militias is about to escalate into a shooting precursor to something greater? There is still hope an all out escalation can be avoided" and we cited White House press secretary Joshn Earnest who last week said that "the administration hadn’t finished reviewing the language and isn’t ready to take a position on the legislation. He said the administration wants to ensure that the U.S. and its European allies are working together, that any sanctions are effective and that they minimize harm to U.S. and European companies. “This is delicate work,” Earnest said."
Apparently, not delicate enough, and moments ago we got confirmation that the epic collapse in the USDRUB is just a jovial preview of the main event. To wit:
- OBAMA DOES INTEND TO SIGN RUSSIAN SANCTIONS LEGISLATION:EARNEST
- OBAMA LIKELY TO SIGN SANCTIONS BILL BEFORE END OF WEEK: EARNEST
And with that, US "lethal aid" will shortly begin arriving in Kiev, which in turn will be just the pretext needed by Sergey Lavrov and the Kremlin to escalate the recent events in Russia as a direct attack by the West, and to demand retaliation against a US president who "does not reason" as the Russian media will appeal to the population in an attempt to "rally round the flag", and as a result Russian tanks may have no choice but to enter the separatist territories in East Ukraine.
What the western, and certainly NATO, response at that point will be, is far beyond our meager prediction skills.
NATO tactical aircraft double
flight intensity near Russia,
Belarus borders
flight intensity near Russia,
Belarus borders
TASS,
16 December, 2014
MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. Tactical aircraft of North Atlantic Alliance states more than doubled flight intensity near borders of Russia and Belarus this year, Chief Commander of Russian Air Force Colonel General Viktor Bondarev told reporters on Tuesday.
“Overall number of flights by NATO tactical aircraft in regions bordering Russia and Belarus has more than doubled to exceed three thousand in 2014 against 2013,” Bondarev said.
NATO aircraft flights near Russian borders “are beyond comparison with flight intensity by Russian long-range aircraft,” the chief commander dded.
The United States and NATO states have made flights of their spy planes much more intensive this year, particularly in the Baltic states. The number of flights makes 8-12 a week, the general said.
Reports on Russian warplanes' violations aim at distraction from NATO reinforcement
Viktor Bondarev said foreign media reports about Russian warplanes’ alleged violations of flight rules are destined to distract attention from NATO military forces being reinforced near Russian borders.
“Media fakes about the so-called violations of the flight rules by Russian warplanes are issued to call off attention of the world community from NATO air assault forces being reinforced near Russian borders,” he said.
Russian air force will continue planned training and will keep improving combat training of pilots and crews.
“Flights will be made in the areas of airfields and over oceans and seas strictly in compliance with international legislation and flight rules,” the chief commander noted.
I will cover the other, economic aspects of this seperately, but here are comments from the Saker.
The Russian Central Bank's
"counterattack" lasted 30
mins!
16 December, 2014
The result of the Russian Central Bank's hike in interest rates turned out to be worse then my worst nightmares: it reversed the downward spiral of the Ruble for only about half an hour, then the Russian currency resumed its collapse. Rumor has it that the Central Bank might begin buying Rubles next, which I personally don't see as useful at this point.
I have asked for expert opinions and I hope to get them soon. In the meantime, here is my own take on this which, caveat emptor, is backed by ZERO personal expertise in these matters. Still, for whatever it's worth, my own speculations:
1) The Ruble is falling due to three completely separate reasons:
i) The recession in the West which triggers a drop in oil prices
ii) The AngloZionist pressures on OPEC not to cut production
iii) The impact of western sanctions
2) None of the above are enough to explain what is happening. The real problem is the lack of credibility of the Russian Central Bank and the Kremlin. Thus the key factor in the fall of the Ruble is distrust of the Russian authorities.
3) This distrust is fully deserved. The head of the Central Bank is a notorious 5th columnist which Putin failed to fire, arrest or otherwise remove from that position. But there is worse:
4) Putin personally is not trusted either, at least not on economic matters. Dmitry Orlov put it very well:
I have asked for expert opinions and I hope to get them soon. In the meantime, here is my own take on this which, caveat emptor, is backed by ZERO personal expertise in these matters. Still, for whatever it's worth, my own speculations:
1) The Ruble is falling due to three completely separate reasons:
i) The recession in the West which triggers a drop in oil prices
ii) The AngloZionist pressures on OPEC not to cut production
iii) The impact of western sanctions
2) None of the above are enough to explain what is happening. The real problem is the lack of credibility of the Russian Central Bank and the Kremlin. Thus the key factor in the fall of the Ruble is distrust of the Russian authorities.
3) This distrust is fully deserved. The head of the Central Bank is a notorious 5th columnist which Putin failed to fire, arrest or otherwise remove from that position. But there is worse:
4) Putin personally is not trusted either, at least not on economic matters. Dmitry Orlov put it very well:
Some people are starting to loudly criticize Putin for his inaction; but what can he do? Ideologically, he is a statist, and has done a good job of shoring up Russian sovereignty, clawing back control of natural resources from foreign interests and curtailing foreign manipulation of Russian politics. But he is also an economic liberal who believes in market mechanisms and the free flow of capital. He can't go after the bankers on the basis of ideology alone, because what ideological differences are there? And so, once again, he is being patient, letting the bankers burn the old “wooden” ruble all the way to the ground, and their own career prospects in the process. And then he will step in and solve the ensuing political problem, as a political problem rather than as a financial one.
Orlov, as always, is spot on here. Let me explain, as this is crucial:
First, yes, Putin is an economic liberal. I hate to admit it, but I am convinced of it. So while he is "socialist" in a sense of supporting a social state, which helps the poor, needy, sick or old, he also is a "market capitalist" in the sense that he believes that market forces should be left free to maximize the competitivity of an economy. This might be a result of seeing a (pseudo-) socialist system fail or because he sincerely admires the competitivity of US and other (pseudo-) capitalist economies, I don't know. But there is no doubt in my mind that he is an economic liberal.
Second, it would be typical Putin to let the "Atlantic Integrationist" 5th column to fail so badly as to make their removal a political demand of the Russian people. The problem with that is that this strategic can take a huge toll on the Russian people and economy.
Right now the situation is so bad that the value of some high visibility Russian stocks has begun to plunge. As does the Ruble. As does the price of Brent.
I am not much of an economist, much less so a trader. But I have to agree with the markets here: the current Putin+Nabiulina combo is not one deserving trust and if I had to speculate, I would speculate against Russia right now.
Maybe I am naive or primitive but I see only one way to reverse this death spiral: not only to fire Nabiulina, but to fully nationalize the Central Bank, fire the totality of its current top management and to appoint a new team with Sergei Glaziev as it's director with a rank of Minister of Finance. Then Russia must take the strategic decision drop the current system of backing each printed Ruble with purchased US Dollar and instead back the Ruble with either energy or metals or a combo of real-word resources. My own vote would go for gold.
First, yes, Putin is an economic liberal. I hate to admit it, but I am convinced of it. So while he is "socialist" in a sense of supporting a social state, which helps the poor, needy, sick or old, he also is a "market capitalist" in the sense that he believes that market forces should be left free to maximize the competitivity of an economy. This might be a result of seeing a (pseudo-) socialist system fail or because he sincerely admires the competitivity of US and other (pseudo-) capitalist economies, I don't know. But there is no doubt in my mind that he is an economic liberal.
Second, it would be typical Putin to let the "Atlantic Integrationist" 5th column to fail so badly as to make their removal a political demand of the Russian people. The problem with that is that this strategic can take a huge toll on the Russian people and economy.
Right now the situation is so bad that the value of some high visibility Russian stocks has begun to plunge. As does the Ruble. As does the price of Brent.
I am not much of an economist, much less so a trader. But I have to agree with the markets here: the current Putin+Nabiulina combo is not one deserving trust and if I had to speculate, I would speculate against Russia right now.
Maybe I am naive or primitive but I see only one way to reverse this death spiral: not only to fire Nabiulina, but to fully nationalize the Central Bank, fire the totality of its current top management and to appoint a new team with Sergei Glaziev as it's director with a rank of Minister of Finance. Then Russia must take the strategic decision drop the current system of backing each printed Ruble with purchased US Dollar and instead back the Ruble with either energy or metals or a combo of real-word resources. My own vote would go for gold.
What is becoming clear to me is that there is as much danger from within Russia as from without, from the West. If you listen to Mikhail Khazin here (whom I trust as a source) there is a danger of Putin's public support being quickly eroded as as the effects of economic war filter through.
He expresses the view (and extreme disappointment) that Putin, in his most recent State of the Nation address has essentially caved in to the pro-western liberals who dominate the public service and banks (who form what is, essentially a fifth column) and followed a disastrous response (the results of which we have seen today) along neo-liberal lines.
An opportunity has been lost.
This is what he had to say earlier, after the G20 in Brisbane
He expresses the view (and extreme disappointment) that Putin, in his most recent State of the Nation address has essentially caved in to the pro-western liberals who dominate the public service and banks (who form what is, essentially a fifth column) and followed a disastrous response (the results of which we have seen today) along neo-liberal lines.
An opportunity has been lost.
This is what he had to say earlier, after the G20 in Brisbane
If you read Russian you can follow his blog HERE
Last words to Mark Sleboda, an American living in Moscow:
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