Escalation in Eastern Mediterranean

Battleground in Eastern Mediterranean is heating up fast

By R. C. Camphausen

Digital Journal,

18 May, 2013

As if the 80,000 dead in Syria are not the result of a war, Israel warns Russia that shipping missiles to Assad could result in war in the region. Meanwhile, Russia has sent at least 12 warships into the Mediterranean to protect its assets in Tartous.

Today's Times of Israel and yesterday's New York Times present us with crucial and new information of what's happening on the ground while somewhere else - in the province of the mind - diplomats are arranging for so-called renewed peace-talks in June.

When not moving through the Eastern Mediterranean and monitoring the situation near the port of Tartous, the Russian vessels will be at harbor in nearby Limassol, Cyprus.

The Syrian deep-water harbor in Tartous (also Tartus) can accommodate a broad range of Russian Navy vessels, from frigates and larger warships to nuclear-powered submarines. Access to this port is crucial to any large shipments of missiles or missile defense systems Russia seems to be presently delivering to Syria.

In addition to the previously discussed  six S-300 anti-aircraft missile defenses, it now emerges that the Russian Federation will also deliver a coastal defense version of the P-800 Yakhont system; apparently previously ordered by Syria. These missiles are about 22 feet long, carry either high-explosive and/or armor-piercing warheads with a range of about 180 miles.

They are mainly meant to be used against hostile ships approaching the coast and would make it difficult for US/NATO to enforce a naval blockade, while the S-300 would be a perfect defense against air assaults.

Even while both the S-300 and the new P-800 may arrive in Syria at any moment, Israel seems not to rule out further airstrikes against the country, albeit under the pretext of not wanting to allow weapons to reach Hezbollah.

The following 'warning' was quoted in a New York Times article of May 15:

“Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region. If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, an unnamed top US official tried to play all of the Russian involvement down by saying “It’s a show of force. It’s muscle flexing.”

Whatever is being said, or thought; it doesn't look too well for 'peace talks' when the Eastern Mediterranean 'theater of war' is heating up fast.

Report: Russia sends advanced missiles to Syria, signaling commitment to Assad

New shipment of anti-ship missiles are equipped with advanced radar that makes them more potent, U.S. officials tell New York Times. Meanwhile, Russia sends a dozen warships to protect its naval base on Syria's shores.

Haaretz,

17 May, 2013

Russia has sent advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria, The New York Times reported Thursday, citing American officials.

The officials stated that the move exemplifies the extent of Russia's support for the Syrian government and its embattled leader, PresidentBashar Assad.

The missiles, called Yakhonts, are equipped with an advanced radar that renders them more effective, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing classified intelligence information.

Unlike the long-range surface-to-surface missiles that stand at the Assad regime's disposal, the Yakhont anti-ship missile system allows the Syrian military to stand against potential efforts by international forces to impose a naval embargo or a no-fly zone on the country, or to carry out limited airstrikes in support of the Syrian opposition.

Syria’s new weaponry would “tend to push Western or allied naval activity further off the coast” and was “a signal of the Russian commitment to the Syrian government,” said Jeffrey White, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior American intelligence official.

In addition, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia has dispatched a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Syria, as part of the European country's newly aggressive stance that evidently seeks to deter the West and Israel from getting involved the crisis in Syria.

These reports come just days after Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked him not to sell Syria anti-aircraft missiles. 

Knesset Member Tzachi Hanegbi on Friday stressed that Israel has no interest in intervening in Syria's civil war, but expressed hope that "the Russians understand that supplying missiles to what could be the most volatile and sensitive region in the world is not the solution."

"The Russians are betting everything they have on the Assad card, and it's unclear why," Hanegbi said in an interview with Israel Radio.

According to the New York Times report, Syria had first ordered the Yakhont missiles from Russia in 2007, and received the first batteries – which did not include the advanced radar – in 2011. It initially ordered 72 missiles, 36 launchers and additional support equipment. 

The missiles are 6.7 meters long and can reach a distance of 290 kilometers. Each missile has its own radar to help evade a ship’s defense system. The launchers are mobile, which makes them difficult to target.