Saturday, 20 December 2014

Paul Craig Roberts' predictions for 2015

From King World News

Paul Craig Roberts Stunning 2015 Predictions – At Any Time The West Can Collapse




19 December, 2014

Eric King: “Dr. Roberts, what are your predictions for 2015? What surprises are in front of us next year?”

"To have a bond market in which the purchasers of bonds have to pay a fee in order to have a negative real interest rate makes no sense. When you buy a bond you are automatically getting back less than you paid for it. What sense does that make when the United States' debt is exploding and when the money supply is exploding? It makes no sense at all. No American markets make any sense — they’re (all) rigged.

I think (in 2015) the world will start to see the realignment of power as it drifts away from the West toward Russia, China, India, the BRICs, and the states who ally with them such as South American countries who are tired of American imperialism. You will see a shift in the balance of power that will be unfavorable to Washington.”

Eric King: “Dr. Roberts, is 2015 the year that the gold price manipulation will end?”

Dr. Roberts: “What will end it will be when the West runs out of gold to deliver. When the Federal Reserve and the bullion banks artificially suppress the price of gold it causes a greater quantity (of physical gold to be) demanded. So as they push down the gold price, the demand for gold in China, India, and Russia, goes up. At what point will they (the Western central banks) be unable to make delivery?

What that occurs, that’s when the (price of) gold will break loose. The day the Asian demand for gold at the artificially fixed low price exceeds the ability of the West to supply the gold, the price rigging system falls apart. At that point (the price of) gold can move instantly higher.

I don’t know what the ability of the West to continue making deliveries (of gold) is. I don’t know what aspects of annual production are controlled by the West. Clearly the price of gold being suppressed suppresses the ability to produce more gold. The mines can produce more gold the higher the price (is). The lower the price, the less they can produce because of the cost of production.

When Washington suppresses the price of gold, they drive supply down as the mining companies cut back (production), or else they hoard the ore waiting for a higher price. Yet the demand for the gold goes up. So when you have the demand high and the supply restrained, you are basically operating on stocks (of Western gold). And where are those stocks and how extensive are they?

There has been a lot of speculation that the Fed used up the Fort Knox gold a long time ago. And more speculation they have used up the other countries gold that was deposited with them for safekeeping, such as Germany’s gold.

They (the Federal Reserve) can’t give Germany its gold back. Why? The speculation is they’ve used it up (as part of the gold price rigging scheme). So if there are no stocks (of gold) to fill the gap between falling production and rising demand because of the low price, then at some point the system simply can’t make delivery. When that happens is when it (the Western Ponzi scheme) falls apart.”

Paul Craig Roberts – Russia To Unleash Ultimate Black Swan Against The West



19 December, 2014

Today Dr. Paul Craig Roberts warned King World News that the Russians are going to unleash what he called the "ultimate black swan" against the West. Dr. Roberts also discussed how a terrifying series of events would then bring the Western financial system to it knees as the banking system completely collapses.

And in the meantime, as part of this process, Eric, we may see Russia unleash black swans that bring down the Western house of cards….


Dr. Roberts: “I was listening to the news today and there were all these self-righteous people just happy as all get out that they had finally stomped Russia into the ground and ‘Russia is now finished,’ and Russia was broken and ‘would soon be an American vassal state where it belongs.' And I was listening to this rot and got to thinking, ‘How can people be so utterly stupid?’ But they are, and they are just as stupid in Washington.

Suppose the Russian government says, ‘Well, since the attack on the ruble is political and you guys are attacking the ruble and causing us so much trouble, we are just going to not pay off the next traunch of our debt that comes due early in 2015.

Well, the European banking system would collapse because those banks are terribly undercapitalized. Some of them have loans to Russia that almost absorb the entire capital base. So the Russians don’t even have to default. They can just say, ‘We’re not going to pay this year. We will do it later. We’ll do it when the ruble stabilizes.’ (Laughter).

You can understand the impact of such a decision by the Russians on the West. And given all the linkages and the interconnections — when Lehman Brothers went down it had just about as much adverse affect on Europe as it did the United States.

What would come from that? Who knows? There are all kinds of derivatives and credit default swaps everywhere. We know these derivatives now are some multiple of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. And nobody really knows who all the counterparties are. If the European banks start going down, who knows what the impact on this pile of derivatives would be? But the whole Western system is a house of cards. It’s not based on anything other than market manipulation. So it doesn’t take much of a push to knock it down.

The biggest black swan of all, Eric, if the Russians get thoroughly angry, all they have to do is call up the European governments and say, ‘We no longer sell natural gas or any other form of energy to members of NATO.' The consequence would be the utter and total collapse of NATO. Not even a puppet state like Germany is going to let the people freeze to death, let the factories be closed down, and let the unemployment rate hit 40 percent. It’s just not going to happen — it would be the end of NATO.

So whenever the Russians want to destroy NATO, that’s all they have to do. Just call up the puppet Merkel, call up the puppet Hollande, the puppet Cameron, and say, ‘You guys really enjoy being in NATO, well let me tell you what, we no longer sell energy to NATO members.’ That’s the end of NATO and that’s the end of the cover for American power.

That would set off so many black swans. Every banking system would probably collapse because if the German banks are faced with German industry closing down, what the hell is going to happen to the banks? So all the cards are in Putin’s hands. None of them are in Washington’s hands. Putin is going to reorient Russia to the East. Then you are going to see Russia, India, and China, take over the leadership of the world. That will start in 2015.”



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