Ukrainian update - 05/1/2014

The Donbass referendum - yet another abject failure of US foreign policy

Vineyard Saker,

12 May, 2014

The exact results of the referendum in the Donbass are still unknown, but the following three facts are undeniable:

1) Participation was extremely high.
2) The yes vote won by a landslide.
3) The neo-Nazi junta tried hard, but failed to disrupt the vote.

We also know that the validity of this referendum will be rejected by a crushing majority of UN members.  Ditto for the regime in power who has already denounced it has a "farce".  As for the Ukie terror squads in the Donbass, they are unlikely to simply pack up and leave.  So this begs a simply question:

Is this referendum a non-event or does it matter?

I would argue that far from being a non-event, the outcome of this referendum is a huge development, a watershed really.  Why?  Because the importance of this referendum is not in its legal acceptance by any party, but in the fact that it now makes undeniable a fact which previously could not be established with certainty: the Donbass does not want to be part of Banderastan.

In a last ditch attempt to deny the undeniable the New York Times published an article on May 8th entitled "Ukrainians Favor Unity, Not Russia, Polls Find" claiming that most Ukrainians, including Russian-speakers, wanted to remain in unitary Ukraine.  Notice in the chart Pew goes as far as saying that 70% of the East Ukrainians including 58% Russian speakers want to remain in a United Ukraine.  This is a direct quote form Pew:

Among Ukrainians, 77% say Ukraine should remain united, compared with 14% who think regions should be permitted to secede if they so desire. In Ukraine’s west, which includes the central region around Kyiv (Kiev), as well as portions of the country that border Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, more than nine-in-ten (93%) think their nation should remain unified. A smaller majority (70%) in the country’s east – which includes areas along the Black Sea and the border with Russia – also prefer unity. Only in the breakaway territory of Crimea do more than half (54%) voice support for the right to secede.

Now, thanks to this referendum, this fairy tale is dead. Oh sure, the western corporate media will do the "patriotic" thing and claim that the referendum was badly organized, grossly undemocratic, that people had to vote under the threat of the barrel of a gun, etc.

Actually, that last point is true: the people of the Donbass did have to vote under the barrel of a gun except, of course, that that gun was held by the various various Ukrainian death squads.  One such unit called the "Dniper special battalion" played a particularly vicious and ugly role in the shooting of unarmed civilians both in Mariupol and in Slaviansk.  So yes, the people of the Donbass did vote in a de-facto war zone, "under the barrel of a gun", there was terror all around the polling stations, but it was Ukrainian terror.  In Slaviansk people literally voted at the sound of gunfire and even mortar fire.

And the people of the Donbass were not deterred - they did vote and they voted in favor of sovereignty.

Elections, of course, can be faked.  But not when the participation is very hight and with figures in the 75%-100% range, not place where almost every person has a phone with a video of photo camera, not in an elections where people are more than happy to wait for hours in line to vote and not in an election were the ballot count is public and each ballot in counted three times.  The western corporate media can make all the claims it wants, but, just as with Crimea, this is a lost battle and the propaganda machine will have to throw in the towel pretty soon.  If they persist in explaining it all away with Russian agents, GRU Spetsnaz infiltrators or "terrorists" they will just further ridicule themselves.

Furthermore, this referendum puts the junta in Kiev in a terrible situation: not only did its repressive machine not succeed in taking a single city under control (not even surrounded Slaviansk!) but now everybody on the junta's side will have to admit to himself that this is a lost battle.  Even if the Ukie "special" (i.e., terror) forces were replaced by real combat units who could easily take many cities under control, this would not resolve the issue of what to do next.  Think about it:  so you finally "got", say, Slaviansk, you murdered part of the population and terrorized the other.  What now?  What do you do next?  Short of putting the equivalent of an SS battalion in each city of the Donbass there is no way of keeping everybody terrorized and accounted for.  The longer you stay the worse things will look for you.  So what is the point?

I honestly don't see a solution in the Donbass, not for the junta and not for the Empire.  The smartest thing they could do would be to cut their losses and retreat from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, but that would immediately create two more headaches: first, other regions, including Odessa, will almost certainly follow that example and, second, the Donbass is where the money is.  That is by far the richest, most developed, part of the Ukraine.  The loss of Crimea is bad enough, but losing the Donbass is even worse.  But how do you hold on such a huge region with forces which failed to even adequately terrorize a small city like Slaviansk?

At this point a lunatic like Oleg Liashko would probably suggest that heavy artillery and airstrikes should be used to simply flatten any rebellious city.  There are two problems with that:  a) that is hardly going to make the junta in Kiev more popular and b) that would guarantee a Russian air/missile strike on Ukie artillery positions and/or the imposition of a no-fly zone.  And if the local authorities officially appeal to Russia for protection there would be a very real risk for the Right Sector thugs and the "Dniper Special Battalion" to find themselves suddenly faced some very polite and absolutely ruthless "armed men in green".  Russia could also send in just a few specialized diversionary teams like the FSB's Vympel or the SVR's Zaslon which could eliminate the local field commanders of the junta in the Donbass while making it all look like accidents.

The bottom line is this: following the referendum, Kiev has no more viable options left.  In contrast, Moscow has plenty of options, all pretty good.

First, Moscow can decide to suspend the recognition of the results of the referendum just like it had refrained from recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until 08.08.08.  The message would be simple: "be good or else we will do an 08.08.08 on you".

Moscow could also choose to deliberately exacerbate the situation and declare that this referendum did express the will of the people and that from now on Moscow will not back any solution which would not recognize the Donbass as a sovereign state.  In this case, the Kremlin could well decide to openly send in military equipment and advisers.

Either way, we know that Psaki will continue to deny the obvious, and that Hollande and Merkel will try get the EU to impose further sanctions but that is about all they could do and, frankly, Russia couldn't care less.

Logically, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian "creeping civil war" will move to the cities of Kherson, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhie and especially Odessa - a much larger region that the one which just voted in the referendum. 

The only relatively good news for the junta is that the three regions which have in one way or another seceded so far are also the ones in which the absolute majority of the population spoke Russian.  They are shown in dark green in the language map.  This map, by the way, is an 'official' map which is highly misleading: in reality the number of regions which speak primarily Russian in much bigger and includes Odessa, Dniepropetrovsk and even Kiev, but that is besides the point.  The point of this map is to show that even "official Kiev" knew and "sort of admitted" that Lugansk, Donetsk and Crimea were even less "Ukrainian" than any other region.

I fully expect the junta to go ahead with the planned Presidential election (even though what powers this President remains unknown since nobody knows what the future Ukrainian Constitution will be like).  In fact, by removing such regions as Lugansk, Donetsk or Crimea this will strongly alter the overall balance of Ukrainian vs Russian speakers in the country. Remember that Yanukovich was always elected with pretty thin majorities?  Now it might well be that a majority of the people of what is left of the Ukraine would at least have Ukrainian as their main language.  Still, speaking Ukrainian does not necessarily make you a Galician, a neo-Nazi or a rabid russophobe and the more "pro-Russian" regions break away from Banderastan the more the national question will be gradually replaced by the economic one.

The question now is whether the junta will continue wasting its already mostly depleted resources on fighting an unwinnable war against the Donbass or whether they will concentrate their forces in regions where something might still be salvaged.  So far, the AngoZionist Empire and its puppet-junta have literally done everything wrong: they missed every single possibility to seek a negotiated solution, they have rejected numerous offers of dialog from Moscow, they have steadfastly refused to see the reality on the ground and at every step of the way they have made things worse for everybody, including themselves.  Will the outcome of this referendum in the Donbass be enough to force them all to open their eyes to reality?  I personally doubt it very much.  I can't think of a single person in government in the West which has shown even a modicum of pragmatism: Obama and Kerry are clearly completely out of touch with reality and nobody dares to disobey their crazy orders.

Will Banderastan have to shrink to the size of the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions to open their eyes to the fact that more than anything else it is their own crazy self-defeating policies which are destroying the country which for 22 years used to be the Ukraine?

I honestly don't know.

The Saker

Ukraine: pro-Russia separatists set for victory in eastern region referendum

Kiev defends military's 'anti-terrorist operations' as rebels say 90% of vote is in favour of 'people's republics' in Donetsk and Luhansk

RT,

11 May, 2014

There were no international observers, no up-to-date electoral lists, and the ballot papers were photocopies. With heavily armed men keeping watch, ambiguous wording on the ballot slip and a bungled Ukrainian attempt to stop voting in one town that ended with one dead, it was clear that this was no ordinary referendum.

But as pro-Russia separatists announced a landslide victory for the proposition that called for the creation of two new, quasi-independent entities in eastern Ukraine, it was equally clear that Sunday's voting marked a new watershed in the country's crisis.

One of the separatist leaders promptly served warning that all Ukrainian troops on his territory would become illegal.

"All military troops on our territory after the official announcement of referendum results will be considered illegal and declared occupiers," Denis Pushilin said. "It is necessary to form state bodies and military authorities as soon as possible."

The head of the de facto electoral commission said on Sunday night that nearly 90% of voters in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk voted for self-rule. "89%, that's it," Roman Lyagin said.

An armed pro-Russian separatist stands guard as a man casts his vote during the referendum in the Donetsk region. Photograph: Roman Pilipey/EPA

The referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, advised local leaders to postpone, came as widespread anger mounted over Ukrainian military moves against armed separatists.

There was a further bloody incident on Sunday as a detachment of Ukraine's National Guard arrived in the town of Krasnoarmeisk. According to witnesses, they were angrily accosted by unarmed locals and subsequently opened fire, killing one and wounding two.

The authorities in Kiev have said these are "anti-terrorist operations", but they have resulted in a number of deaths, most recently in the city of Mariupol on Friday when at least seven people died as Ukrainian forces entered the city.

Only four polling stations opened on Sunday in Mariupol, which is home to 500,000 people. One was in the burned-out city administration building, seized by separatists and scene of fierce clashes in recent days. There were huge queues of people, almost all of whom said they were voting yes to separatism.

In Donetsk, there were also queues to vote, even though many people were unsure exactly of the meaning of the ballot question, which asked: "Do you support the act of state self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?"

There have been mixed messages from de facto leaders: sometimes they say it is merely a vote for more autonomy within Ukraine; at other times they say the yes vote is for a new state that would include much of Russian-speaking east Ukraine, while there are also suggestions that the region could join Russia, as Crimea did in March after a controversial referendum.

It is not clear whether Russia has the appetite to annex more of Ukraine, but many of those at polling stations believed that is what they were voting for.

At a polling station in a Donetsk school, Alexander Baturenko, 27, who was one of the volunteers helping to organise the vote, said he hoped the region would become part of Russia. The economics graduate, who now works in as an accountant in a big company, said: "It's much quieter and more peaceful there. Here it's one president after another; there it never changes."

Ludmila Babushkina, 78, said she had cast her voted to protect the region from "fascists" in Kiev. She said that previously there had been a chance to make some kind of compromise with Kiev, but that none of the leading candidates in the election represented the Russian-speaking east of the country and that now she had decided she wanted to join Russia.

She said the referendum was causing divisions. "My neighbour argued with me this morning and told me that I should not vote, that we don't need any of this. To be honest, I was pretty surprised that she had fascist views. She seemed nice."

A woman in Slavyansk votes in the referendum. Photograph: Janos Chiala/NurPhoto/Corbis

A Russian journalist said he had been allowed to vote despite not showing any passport, while others reported they were able to vote several times.

Lyagin said the referendum was not perfect but was the best thing possible in the current Ukrainian climate. "We don't have a legitimate government in Kiev. There is a de facto president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, and just because he is not at his desk does not mean that other people can take over," Lyagin said. "We have people who are themselves illegal telling us that we are illegal."

In Luhansk, one polling station was set up inside a separatist stronghold – the state security building that they have occupied since early April.

Children posed for photographs by a tank removed from a Soviet monument on the eve of Victory Day by protesters. A man in camouflage handed a small boy a Kalashnikov rifle to pose with.

Some said that voting yes would improve their material position. Andriy Penishenko, 41, said he feared that staying within Ukraine would mean he would lose his job at a locomotive plant.

"If Kiev drags us into the EU or Nato, then they will come and close our plant. Our plant sells its products to Russia and feeds half of the city," he said.

The referendum comes as the region appears to be tottering on the edge of a genuine civil war.

Language and rhetoric has toughened as the death toll has mounted in recent weeks. Comparisons with the Nazis have been flying on both sides. and the armed uprising against Kiev has been portrayed in Moscow and locally as an "anti-fascist" movement. The government in Kiev said Moscow was behaving in a manner reminiscent of Nazi Germany.

The head of Ukraine's security council, Andriy Parubiy, said the referendum was "Putin propaganda" and "similar referendums were held by Hitler in Austria". Parubiy, who led the volunteer security forces during the Maidan protests in Kiev, and now commands the National Guard, a force drawn from the Maidan protesters and used against the separatists in east Ukraine.

He added: "Europe needs to understand that because Hitler was not stopped at the beginning, it led to a huge war and millions and millions of victims. If Russia recognises [the results of the referendum] Ukraine will defend its territory."

So far Kiev's "anti-terrorism operation" has only led to increased anger and alienation among many people in east Ukraine. However, while many people are wary of the new authorities in Kiev, it is unclear how many people really support the separatist movement. Many pro-Ukraine activists have left the region after threats, some have been kidnapped, and most of those who disagree chose to boycott the referendum rather than vote no.

But Andrei, a philosophy student who did not want to give his surname, said: "I haven't voted and nor have any of my friends. It's a referendum for idiots, organised by idiots. Of course I don't want to be part of their absurd republic or join Russia. But having said that, I don't like the new Kiev government either. Basically, we're screwed."

Graphic video: Ukraine's National Guard opens fire on unarmed civilians in Krasnoarmeysk

One civilian was killed and several others wounded in eastern Ukraine as the National Guard started shooting at protesters and voters, who had gathered around a seized polling station in Krasnoarmeysk.

Read more: http://on.rt.com/10z7ox

RT News - May 11, 2014 (17:00 MSK

Voting for self-determination is underway in Eastern Ukraine, as people in two restive regions line up at polling stations to have their say on future relations with Kiev. Kiev says its military operation is in its final stage. It's claimed dozens of lives in eastern Ukraine but failed to stop people from voting on the region's future. Victims of a Royal power play or martyrs for women's rights? Four Saudi Princesses are held hostage for over a decade by their own father. And, RT meets a U.S. campaigner who is prevented from going about her every day business simply for trying to keep her town fracking-free.

For latest news broadcast GO HERE