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Ocean Heat Anomaly Spikes to New Extreme High of +1.16 C Above ‘Average’ on May 10, 2014
(Global
ocean surface temperature anomaly vs the 1979-2000 average. Data
source:Global
Forecast System Model.
Image source: University
of Maine.)
10
May, 2014
On
May 10 global ocean surface temperatures hit a new extreme high for
2014 of +1.16 C above the already hotter than normal 1979-2000
average.
This
extraordinary temperature departure was driven in part by a warming
of Equatorial Pacific waters to a +.59 C anomaly, putting that region
in the range of a weak El Nino.
Overall,
global ocean temperatures show very high positive anomalies in all
regions with the mid-to-high latitude Northern Hemisphere oceans
showing an extraordinary departure in the range of +1.36 C. Heat of
particularly high anomaly values remains concentrated in surface
zones in the North Pacific south of Alaska and in the Barents Sea,
which over the past few years has displayed excessive warmth after a
near permanent loss of seasonal sea ice cover. Hot spots in this zone
continue to show +3 to +4 C above average temperature anomalies
contributing to sea ice recession and weakness in the region east of
Svalbard and on to the Laptev Sea.
An
emerging Kelvin Wave off the West Coast of Ecuador has also created a
high temperature anomaly hot spot in the range of +2.5 to +3.5 near
the Nino 1 and 2 region. This expanding warm pool has been reinforced
by broad area synoptic westerly winds counter to typical easterly
trades which is pushing warm water toward the coasts of South and
Central America.
Overall
Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures in central and eastern zones
have ranged between +.4 and +.7 C above average depending on region.
Though these temperatures are in the range of El Nino, they will have
to maintain or increase for a period of two months for an official
state of El Nino to be declared.
It
is worth noting that since the base-line for the GFS summary given
above is in the 1979-2000 range, total departures from 1880 values
are likely in the range of .3 to .4 C hotter, putting the actual
global anomaly for the date at around +1.5 C.
In
context, the swing toward a weak though still strengthening El Nino
pattern is already starting to push global sea surface temperatures
into or near the record range. We will continue to provide updates as
the situation progresses.
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