More sabre-rattling in Persian Gulf

Oil increased $3.00 to $102 on this news 
Iran warns U.S. over aircraft carrier

Iran warned the United States Tuesday not to return a U.S. aircraft carrier "to the Persian Gulf region."

CNN, 

3 January 2012

U.S. officials rejected the "warning" and another recent threat from Tehran that it could close the Strait of Hormuz. The White House and U.S. State Department called the latest threats signs that sanctions against Iran, the result of a standoff over its nuclear activities, are working.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning," said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, commander of Iran's Army, according to the state-run news agency IRNA.

Salehi "said the country will not adopt any irrational move but it is ready to severely react against any threat," the report added.

The commander spoke at the Port of Chabahar in southern Iran, as forces held a military parade the day after Iran ended naval drills in the region, IRNA reported.

Iran was referring to the USS John C. Stennis, part of the U.S. Navy's fleet in the region. It moved last week from the Persian Gulf into the North Arabian Sea, as part of what the Navy's 5th Fleet called a pre-planned transit.

Iran said the ship's movement during Iran's naval exercises showed that the United States "understood" that Iran's maneuvers were not "suicidal or aggressive," but rather about Iran protecting its own "interests and power."

But Western diplomats last week described the naval drills -- which, according to Iranian officials, included test-firing missiles -- as further evidence of Iran's volatile behavior.

Iran's naval exercises began in the strait and also included waters in the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean up to the Gulf of Aden, according to IRNA.

After Tuesday's warning from Iran, a Pentagon spokesman issued a statement saying "deployment of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf region will continue as it has for decades."

"These carrier strike group deployments are necessary to maintain the continuity and operational support to ongoing missions in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility," George Little said.

The United States has had forces in the Persian Gulf since World War II. Its ships sail through the Persian Gulf frequently, many on their way to and from the 5th Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain. The 5th Fleet's area of responsibility covers about 2.5 million square miles, including the Persian Gulf, which the Navy also refers to as the Arabian Gulf; the Red Sea; the Gulf of Oman and parts of the Indian Ocean.

The dispute over the Stennis began last week. Tehran said an Iranian warplane identified a U.S. carrier patrolling the area of the drills. State-run media showed a picture of the vessel.

Iran's state-run Press TV said Tuesday the images it showed last week were of the Stennis.

Tuesday's events came amid growing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel.

Iran last week threatened to block the strait if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports. France, Britain and Germany have proposed sanctions to punish Iran's lack of cooperation on its nuclear program.

Cmdr. Amy Derrick Frost, spokeswoman for the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, responded at the time, "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."

In his statement Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman Little said the Navy "operates under international maritime conventions to maintain a constant state of high vigilance in order to ensure the continued, safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce.

"Our transits of the Strait of Hormuz continue to be in compliance with international law, which guarantees our vessels the right of transit passage. We are committed to protecting maritime freedoms that are the basis for global prosperity; this is one of the main reasons our military forces operate in the region."

The dispute has been pushing up oil prices. Nearly 17 million barrels of oil a day pass through the strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. "Flows through the Strait in 2011 were roughly 35% of all seaborne traded oil, or almost 20% of oil traded worldwide," the agency says.

"No one in this government seeks confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz," Little said. "It's important to lower the temperature."

But closing the strait would require means that likely are not available to Iran, said Jean-Paul Rodrigue, an expert in transport geography at Hofstra University. "At best, Iran can posture and potentially disrupt traffic for a short duration," he said.

China and Japan are more dependent on Persian Gulf oil than the United States is, he said, and he added that any move to close the strait would be "suicidal" to the current regime.

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland noted Tuesday that Iran is already under sanctions for its failure to cooperate on nuclear issues.

"Frankly, we see these threats from Tehran as just increasing evidence that the international pressure is beginning to bite there and that they are feeling increasingly isolated and they are trying to divert the attention of their own public from the difficulties inside Iran, including the economic difficulties as a result of the sanctions," she said.

White House spokesman Jay Carney made similar remarks. "I think it reflects the fact that Iran is in a position of weakness. It's the latest round of Iranian threats, and it's confirmation that Tehran is under increasing pressure for its continued failures to live up to its international obligation," he said. "Iran is isolated and is seeking to divert attention from its behavior and domestic problems. This is simply a measure of the impact that sanctions have been having on Iran and the broad international support for... putting pressure on Iran and isolating Iran because of its refusal to live up to its international obligations."

and the perspective from RT

Iran ‘recommends’ US stay out of Persian Gulf

RT,

3 January, 2011

Iran has warned the United States it will take action if its fleet returns to the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, France is pushing European countries to follow the US in freezing Iranian central bank assets and imposing an embargo on oil exports.

Iran’s army chief, General Ataollah Salehi had this message for US naval forces: “We recommend… to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went on to the Gulf of Oman, not to return to the Persian Gulf,” the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying.

Salehi appeared to be referring to the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier that left the Persian Gulf through the strategic Strait of Hormuz last Tuesday, as was reported by the Associated Press.

The Pentagon issued its own statement in response, saying that the US Naval presence in the Gulf is in “compliance with international law,” and that its fleet is intended to maintain a “constant state of high vigilance” in order to ensure the safe flow of marine commerce.

General Salehi made his statement at the end of a 10-day naval exercise by Iranian forces in the Gulf, during which they tested several modernized long-range surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles. It is believed the weapons would be capable of countering the US military presence in the region if required.

After the last successful launch on Monday, Iran’s Navy chief, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, stated that from then on the Strait of Hormuz would be completely in Iran’s control.

“The security of the Strait of Hormuz is in our hands,” Sayyari said. “We are controlling the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iranian 200-kilometre (120-mile) range Qader (Ghader) ground-to-sea missile is launched on the last day of navy war games near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran on January 2, 2012 (AFP Photo / EBRAHIM NOROOZI)

Recently, Tehran has been threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's most important oil routes – if the West slaps more sanctions on its oil exports or risks hostile military act of any kind. Iran’s military, however, denies that threats had been made, saying that they had no direct orders to block the strait.

Tensions are growing, with the latest round of sanctions against Iran being introduced on Saturday by the US. The legislation targets Tehran’s financial sector and has already caused the Iranian currency to plunge to a historic low. Iran’s authorities, however, say that the drop in exchange rates is speculative, because it will be several months before the sanctions affect the real economy.

Tehran, which says it aims to develop a complex civilian nuclear industry, recently managed to produce domestically the country’s first nuclear fuel rod. According to the Iranian Nuclear Agency, the first rod has already been inserted into a research reactor. Many believe, though, that Iran’s nuclear program is merely a front for its ambitions to create a nuclear weapon.

France is pushing for stricter sanctions against Iran and has urged EU countries to follow the US in freezing Iranian central bank assets and imposing an embargo on oil exports. On Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said he “has no doubt” that Iran is “pursuing the development of its nuclear arms,” and appealing to the EU to agree sanctions for the Islamic republic by the end of January.

Recipe for military disaster’

James Corbett, the editor of the Japan-based news website Corbett Report, told RT that Iran would not threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz unless they felt “the entire existence of their country was under threat.”

“I don’t think it’s a really credible threat unless they believe that the military tensions are going to boil over and turn into some sort of confrontation,” he said. “And that’s really due to these crippling sanctions that have been placed. So adding more sanctions to the mix is really just a recipe for military disaster.”

Corbett believes that the only outcome that the West should be looking for in the situation should be further talks with Iran.

“To do anything else would be to be backing Iran again into that corner in order to increase military tensions,” he said. “We have to understand that when these military tensions are increased to the point where anything can send them over the edge, then we could be seeing some sort of – any sort of – provocation being used as a justification for military confrontation in the region.” 

Any military action against Iran would mean a much wider regional war rather than a local conflict against Iran’s military, James Corbett believes.

“Really, when we talk about military confrontation in Iran, we have to start thinking about Iran’s strategic allies in the area and the possibility of a much larger war that would draw in elements from all over the region,” he said.