Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Euro model suggests Floreance may strengthen, veer south and stall


MAJOR COMPUTER MODEL CHANGE: NOW GRAVE DANGER ALSO FOR GEORGIA & FLORIDA

11 September, 2018


The very latest computer models on Hurricane Florence show a DRAMATIC AND DANGEROUS CHANGES to the forecast. 

First, the EURO super-computer model is now saying Florence may NOT come fully ashore in North Carolina, but instead come right up to the shoreline and stall . . . . for 36 Hours!
That would mean no weakening, and hurling 20 to 22 FEET of STORM SURGE into North and South Carolina for a full 36 hours.
WORSE . . .
The computer models are NOW saying the storm will then turn SOUTH along the entire coast of South Carolina, all the way down to Savannah, GA.
If this new model forecast is correct, evacuations are strongly advised for the entire coast of the state of Georgia, from Savannah, all the way down to Jacksonville, Florida!
Here's the model as of 5:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 11:







Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits
Given the trends toward a strong ridge north of near the time of landfall, the 12Z ECMWF illustrates how more of a left turn may occur and keep South Carolina and Georgia in the line of fire.

Details unknown; let this be a reminder to be prepared in case things change.
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ENSEMBLE OF MODELS






Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com✔@RyanMaue
Not encouraging to see this afternoon's ECMWF EPS guidance.

There is a significant divergence in solutions on Friday -- with a clear southwest jog -- some prior to any North Carolina landfall at all.

The next 48-72 hours are pretty easy -- but after that, chaos.
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*** BULLETIN ***

226
WTNT31 KNHC 112040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

EVACUATION ORDERS:







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