to an a analysis
offered by Joaquin Flores on Fort Russ the
recent bizarre events unfolding over Syria may have been an attempt,
not simply by Israel, but also by France to draw Russia into a
renewed political/diplomatic confrontation with NATO.
the Russians claim is that Israeli craft using the Il-20 for cover
‘confused’ the SAA system and that the SAA system hit the Russian
Il-20. We will explain that while this is possible, it is unlikely,
and in fact the least likely of any realistic scenarios given the
tremendous preparation and planning that goes into these events.
original Russian announcement about the alleged firing of missiles by
the French frigate Auvergne, was always curious. The fact the two
events – the alleged missile firing and the disappearance of the
Il-20 – were linked
by timing in the Russian announcement is
not the kind of wording to be used casually when dealing with a NATO
member country. The Russians would need good reason for saying
something this potentially inflammatory at such a time. It being a
kind of code for “we know France just shot down our plane” is not
implausible. Flores again:
highly intelligent on the part of Russia, for many reasons, that they
blame Israel for this, if the option is France. Russia refuses to
countenance steps leading to any war when other means are clear &
available….outright war is no answer whatever emerges ultimately.
This was the thought process of Russian authorities, and the basis as
well, of their disinfo campaign.
argues that Russia blaming Israel was the last thing the
neocons/neolibs expected. They anticipated instead that France would
be accused, would be able to vociferously deny, and use indignation
over the “false allegations” to create an excuse for further
anti-Russian propaganda/theatre in the UN and create further distance
and hostility between Russia and a significant NATO member country.
He argues Russia had to think quickly in response and find a way of
avoiding having to blame France. This indirect blaming of Israel was
what they came up with, sidestepping the trap of going head to head
with France and not making a direct claim of Israel involvement that
could be refuted with physical evidence.
did not expect this hybrid of ‘somewhat’ blaming Israel for doing
‘tricky stuff’ in the air, the motives being hard to prove or
Russia was to avoid an MH-17 situation in reverse, they had to think
with agility. Russia has the physical evidence, the flight data, and
the missile launch data. If they were going to blame France, which
was mostly expected, it would have been a UNSC charade, a General
Assembly charade, and a media charade with ‘Putin blaming France’
and Russia being accused of having possession of the evidence from
which their case is made, and therefore the evidence being dodgy or
even manufactured entirely.
crash remains of the IL-20 are going to absolutely show that it was
hit with a missile, any fragments etc. required to establish that,
will show that’s an Aster missile, or similar, like the missiles
used in the S-200’s. But they aren’t going to show that the
impact is consistent with a small missile carried by Israeli planes,
or by gun strafing from an attack plane.
is why Russia could not [directly] blame Israel, yet they knew that
Israel was involved in attacking Lattakia, and it appears that Russia
is also calculating the blaming of Israel in order to do yet
something else unexpected.
recommend taking the time to read Flores very detailed article in
full. While it may turn out not be the truth, or the whole truth, of
the matter, it’s well argued and currently plausible.
of course, if France did shoot
down the Russian plane, or even take part in action likely to cause
loss of Russian life, then it’s clear the most insane elements in
the pro-war neocon/neolib alliance currently have the initiative,
and, as Flores, says, Putin’s caution in responding is well
early days, and no one should leap to conclusions,and – certainly –
anyone who thinks Russia should have responded by shooting other
planes out of the sky needs to pause and reflect.