Posts
These
a purely my subjective thoughts – a kind of venting. I do not mean
to put anyone down.
For that reason this remains on my blog. I am not posting it onto the media that I so despise but depend on.
It
ain't over till the fat lady singsFor that reason this remains on my blog. I am not posting it onto the media that I so despise but depend on.
Some
of you will be aware that Guy McPherson made a prediction that there
would be no blue sea event this year,something he ascribed to a ‘cold
July’, suggesting that there might be a ‘negative feedback’
caused by the smoke from the fires.
I
must admit this sent me into a bit of a tailspin.
Having
been following the Arctic ice for weeks with Margo I knew this wasn’t
the case.
Fortunately
corroborating evidence came from James Hansen within the hour with
this:
Globally
July 2018 was the third warmest July since reliable measurements
began in 1880, 0.78°C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean. The warmest
Julys, in 2016 and 2017, were 0.82°C and 0.81°C, respectively. July
2018 temperature was +1.06°C relative to the 1880-1920 base period,
where the latter provides our best estimate of pre-industrial global
temperature.
Sea
surface temperature near Svalbard in the Arctic was 18.9°C or 66°F!!
On
July 29, 2018, the sea surface near Svalbard was as warm as 18.9°C
or 66°F (at the green circle), 13.5°C
or 24.2°F warmer than during 1981-2011.
To
put this into context the temperature In Cook Strait, south of New
Zealand’s capital is 14°C
On July 17, 2018, the
sea surface off the Florida coast was as warm as 32.9°C or 91.2°F
(at the green circle), 3.2°C or 5.8°F warmer than during 1981-2011.
***
I had the fortune of having a conversation with Guy and can say he was surprised (perhaps even stunned) when I mentioned the Hansen data.
What upsets me most is not a seeming loss of judgement but the response of people.
Being based most of the time in Belize, which has limited internet access, he is allowed to be not always at the forefront of unfolding events.
To me Guy McPherson has been, and continues to be on the money.
My problem is with the people that hang on his every word and pull him down at every opportunity and who compared with Guy have made little contribution of their own.
In this context I don't mind revealing my prejudices at this stage. There are few people who irritate me in this world more than Hambone of Humpty Dumpty.
Most people swing between abject depression and elation when told they may have another year.
When will people start to think for themselves?
I have never been so depressed about this for the whole six (almost seven) years I have been following this and yet some people are ready to party.
I must say I have a low opinion of most people on social media who don't even question what "blue sea event" might mean in the context.
I suspect, in the first year it will look something like this but over the bulk of the Arctic plateau.
But the response of some people are in the business of partying until they drop (when they are not totally depressed) when they should be getting their personal lives and their spiritual house in order.
Right now people who study quietly and reflect on life are in a tiny minority even amidst the tiny minority who are courageous enough to acknowledge Reality.
That's the human condition.
Right now I think nothing has changed from this:
There
is nothing to celebrate and this will become even more evident over
the next couple of days,
It
ain't over till the fat lady sings
The feedback from the fires should be interesting study. At one level, all the smoke from Siberia and Canada might well cause a local dimming effect due to blocking out sunlight. On the other hand, the ash particles that fall on the ice induce extra melting (bit like the gritters putting salt on the roads to get rid of ice), the so called grey ice of Greenland for example.
ReplyDeleteIn addition there is the obvious release of extra CO2 and CH4 from the wild fires, which increases warming longterm. In areas where they fight the fires, we have the double bind that all those extra aircraft, lorries, fire trucks, ambulances etc being mobilised also increase fossil fuel burning, which then produces more warming 10 years down the line.
Mobilisation of fire fighters on the current scale (10,000 in Portugal, 15,000 in California) also disrupts the economy, thereby creating economic feedback loops alongside the environmental ones.
The fat lady is singing, but is she on the first verse, the third chorus or the encore?
I too saw Guy's comment about the cooling bit in the Arctic. And was very surprised. Then Robert Scribbler covered it the day after. What Guy appears to have refered to was a small section of the Arctic where it hadn't warmed as much as the rest, hence "cooling", but in a relative sense, that makes little sense in the grand scheme of things.
ReplyDeleteI did actually think at the time Guy was just being mischievious in that interview, but from what you've say here it may have been a genuine comment.
Hambone! Ah, yes, irritating as feck, but I do listen to his coverage of articles on climate change, saves me searching for them. I don't get depressed by it all, and watching how different people are reacting is very intriguing. Comparing Margo, Robert Scribbler, Guy, Hambone etc you can see a variety of responses which is probably worth a scientific study in it's own right.