Talk of Arctic sea ice extent

For the life of me I cannot understand how this...

Can be translated into this.

It just doesn't make sense.

If we have two puddles the same size covered in ice - one with ice that is less than a inch thick and in the process of changing from ice into water  - the other with ice that is thick and solid: are they they the same?

The official data and the way it is interpreted seems to think so.

Rain for the North Pole

 

I am trying to stay away from speculation like the following.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2020/08/mosaic-climate-expedition-shares-scary-photos-north-pole

Thoughts and reflections on the melting sea ice

I have thrown away all attempts to be “objective” and deal just with the latest data and owned to my own subectivity as I contemplate just what the near-disappearance of the ice at the North Pole.

There are a SERIES of storms in the Arctic forecast that may destroy what remains of the ice.

Blogger has refused to incporporate my formatting.

Thoughts and reflections on the melting sea ice

Making this movie has been a sort of catharsis for me as I have thrown off 

the attempt to be just an impartial observer looking at data and owning to 

my own subjectivity.

I realise that I fall within a minority within a minority and my comments may 

please very few because I try to avoid Group Think and reach my own 

conclusions by looking at what seems to be contradictory information.

I also share, at the end of the video, my own reflections on how I cope and 

how my response is educated and underpinned by my spiritual beliefs and 

practises.

REFERENCES

Expedition shares scary photos from the North Pole

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2020/08/mosaic-climate-expedition-

shares-scary-photos-north-pole

Scientists on Arctic mission make unplanned detour to 

pole

https://apnews.com/2b290e199aef10bd18683bb021133052

Climate change: Historic Arctic heatwave has thawed North Pole so 

much it's shattered

https://www.9news.com.au/world/climate-change-north-pole-arctic-

heatwave-polar-ice-cap-melt-historic-heatwave-scientists-global-

warming/31862db7-83f1-41aa-af32-a8a16dfacb7c

Arctic ocean moorings shed light on winter sea ice loss

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-arctic-ocean-winter-sea-ice.html

OPEN WATERS at North Pole expected in 90 HOURS

Right now, I can not think of ANYTHING that matters more than most.

THE END OF ROAD: 

NORTH POLE IN OPEN 

WATERS NOW 

EXPECTED WITHIN 

90 HOURS OR LESS

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) forecasts blue waters reaching the North Pole within 90 hours.

Veli Albert Kallio, via Facebook

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) forecasts blue waters reaching the North Pole within 90 hours. 

Ships can now sail in open water all the way to 90 degree North within 90 hours from the eastern direction, the ice cap is also detached from all land connections first time ever stranding polar bears at sea on ice floes driven away from the land, many bears are falling into soft ice and perishing right now. 

Nuclear submariners are having difficulties hiding their submarines as open water is reaching them almost anywhere and risk of collisions between US and Russian submarines is growing, being also doing passes in close proximity engine noises are also revealing locations. 

Sea ice on eastern flank of Greenland and north of it have both spectacularly collapsed…

Collapse of North Pole ice cap is falling 4.8.2020 fast like house of cards falling down (ice blocks heading now to North Atlantic warm waters) one 100 metres thick ice shelf also collapsed yesterday with 81 kilometres long ice berg coming

Sunlight heating (black curve, all-time high)

Sam Carana: "Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within two months' time"

Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within two months' time

Arctic sea ice fell by 3.239 million km² in extent in 25 days (i.e. from July 1 to 25, 2020). Melting will likely continue for another two months. If it continues on its current trajectory, the remaining 6.333 million km² of Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within two months' time.

The fall in extent over the next two months' time may not remain as as steep as it was in July, yet the sea ice still could disappear completely. One reason for this is that, over the years, sea ice thickness has been declining even faster than extent. The rapid decline in sea ice thickness is illustrated by the sequence of images below.

The image below further illustrates that sea ice is getting very thin, which threatens the latent heat tipping point to get crossed. 

Sea currents and the Coriolis force will make that the influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean will continue. With no buffer of sea ice left underneath the surface of the sea ice to absorb incoming ocean heat, more heat will accumulate in the Arctic Ocean, threatening that the methane hydrates tipping point will get crossed.

The navy.mil animation below was run on July 27, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for July 28 - August 4, 2020).

Here's another indication that the buffer is disappearing fast. North of Greenland and of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, some 700 km from the North Pole, sea ice is disappearing, precisely where the thickest sea ice used to be located.

High greenhouse gas levels are causing high temperatures over the Arctic and high ocean temperatures. 

On July 25, 2020, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean were as high as 20.8°C or 69.4°F (at the green circle on above image).

At that same location, on July 22, 2020, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean were as much as 17°C or 30.5°F higher than the daily average during the years 1981-2011. 

This location is where the Pechora River flows into the Barents Sea (the green circle pointed at by the white arrow on above image).

Distortion of the jet stream is causing more extreme weather, resulting in the recent lengthy heatwave over Siberia that has heated up the water of rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

Ominously, a cyclone appears to be developing over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

Underneath is a forecast for August 7, 2020, showing rain over the North Pole. 

In summary, Arctic sea ice may disappear completely over the next two months, and there are at least five reasons why this could occur:

• Low Arctic sea ice extent;
• Low Arctic sea ice thickness;
• High ocean temperature;
• High greenhouse gas levels and high temperatures over the Arctic;
• Distorted jet stream causing extreme weather such as storms resulting in sea ice collapse.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NSIDC Arctic sea ice
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

• Polar Portal - sea ice volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html

• Fast Path to Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/fast-path-to-extinction.html

• 2020 Siberian Heatwave continues
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/2020-siberian-heatwave-continues.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

From earlier:

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/2020-siberian-heatwave-continues.html

Discussion on possible Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic

This is recorded by Going South – from Greenland

BOE / Blue Ocean Event: Is 

There a New Dark Mode for 

the Arctic?

Opinions expressed by Going South are not necessarily those of Going South. 

Pls subscribe to @Seemorerocks97!




He has also posted this

Jeff Gibbs of Planet of the Humans interviewed

Paul Beckwith on the Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic

The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What?

Paul Beckwith 

 We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen.

From my analysis, which I discuss in this video, my best guess is that the BOE will happen in 2022. There will be essentially NO sea ice in the Arctic Ocean for a few weeks to a month in September, 2022.

After this BOE happens, then what will follow in subsequent years? I think that by BOE+2 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for August, September, and October. By BOE+4 years it will be ice free for 5 months, and by BOE+10 years the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice year round.

    

During this decade of gut-wrenching transition, our climate and weather patterns will be profoundly disrupted, chaotic, and unstable, for example presenting enormous risks to our global food supply.

I am not paid by anybody for my work analyzing and producing these videos. Please consider donating at Please Donate to Paul, to support my efforts at educating the public on the risks that we collectively face.

Margo's latest (and most importnat) sea ice update

In my view this, and other, updates from Margo are worth at least as much as all the media releases put together.

Margo (primarily) and I identified this weeks ago. Kudos also to Robert Fanney, who also pointed people’s attention to this.

Arctic Sea Ice Update - Guardian Says "Arctic's Strongest Sea Ice Breaks Up..." (Aug. 21, 2018)

From the Guardian today: 

"The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer. This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere." 

Time is short. Get your spiritual houses in order. God bless everyone! 

Peace, 

Margo 

 http://margoshealingcorner.com 

Show Links: 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/201... 

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/...  

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhy...  

https://climatereanalyzer.org/

On the 'blue sea event' or not.

These a purely my subjective thoughts – a kind of venting. I do not mean to put anyone down.

For that reason this remains on my blog. I am not posting it onto the media that I so despise but depend on.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings

Some of you will be aware that Guy McPherson made a prediction that there would be no blue sea event this year,something he ascribed to a ‘cold July’, suggesting that there might be a ‘negative feedback’ caused by the smoke from the fires.

I must admit this sent me into a bit of a tailspin.

Having been following the Arctic ice for weeks with Margo I knew this wasn’t the case.

Fortunately corroborating evidence came from James Hansen within the hour with this:

Globally July 2018 was the third warmest July since reliable measurements began in 1880, 0.78°C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean. The warmest Julys, in 2016 and 2017, were 0.82°C and 0.81°C, respectively. July 2018 temperature was +1.06°C relative to the 1880-1920 base period, where the latter provides our best estimate of pre-industrial global temperature.

https://www.facebook.com/jimehansen/posts/10156393968185993

Indeed this is just some of what we know:

Sea surface temperature near Svalbard in the Arctic was 18.9°C or 66°F!!

On July 29, 2018, the sea surface near Svalbard was as warm as 18.9°C or 66°F (at the green circle), 13.5°C or 24.2°F warmer than during 1981-2011.

To put this into context the temperature In Cook Strait, south of New Zealand’s capital is 14°C

On July 17, 2018, the sea surface off the Florida coast was as warm as 32.9°C or 91.2°F (at the green circle), 3.2°C or 5.8°F warmer than during 1981-2011.

***

I had the fortune of having a conversation with Guy and can say he was surprised (perhaps even stunned) when I mentioned the Hansen data.

What upsets me most is not a seeming loss of judgement but the response of people.

Being based most of the time in Belize, which has limited internet access, he is allowed to be not always at the forefront of unfolding events. 

He is even allowed to make period lapses of judgement.Name me anyone who hasn't. I can't name one).

To me Guy McPherson has been, and continues to be on the money.

My problem is with the people that hang on his every word and pull him down at every opportunity and who compared with Guy have made little contribution of their own.

In this context I don't mind revealing my prejudices at this stage. There are few people who irritate me in this world more than Hambone of Humpty Dumpty.

Most people swing between abject depression and elation when told they may have another year.

When will people start to think for themselves?

I have never been so depressed about this for the whole six (almost seven) years I have been following this and yet some people are ready to party.

I must say I have a low opinion of most people on social media who don't even question what "blue sea event" might mean in the context.

I suspect, in the  first year it will look something like this but over the bulk of the Arctic plateau.

But the response of some people are in the business of partying until they drop (when they are not totally depressed) when they should be getting their personal lives and their spiritual house in order.

Right now people who study quietly and reflect on life are in a tiny minority even amidst the tiny minority who are courageous enough to acknowledge Reality.

That's the human condition.

Right now I think nothing has changed from this:

There is nothing to celebrate and this will become even more evident over the next couple of days,

It ain't over till the fat lady sings

"Blue sea event" or not? - early reflections

More reflections on the 2017 Arctic melt season

We get very used to dealing with things on the macro level - what global temperatures are, what the total ice cover is, but that is often like looking at Nasa Worldview.

If we only look at the main image things perhaps don't look so bad at first glance.

Zoom in and this is what you seen (this is at 83 deg N)

What that translates into is this

How do we measure the sea ice extent or even the thickness of this? How much blue sea is there in areas like this that cover hundreds, if not thousands of kilometers.

If I have to call it as Guy McPherson just has I would say that even if we have 'dodged the bullet' for another year it is only relative and we have seen further major deterioration in the ice which is not reflected in any statistics.

Just my own personal off-the-cuff reflections....

From today

As far as the Arctic melt season is concerned all I'd say is it ain't over until the fat lady sings.

It is above zero as shown by two of these pics. 

There is lots of cloud and some rain, but the ice is breaking up at 78 deg. N.