Wild
weather for southern Australa
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BLIZZARDS, RAIN, SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS, LOW LEVEL SNOW, SMALL HAIL &
THUNDER ABOUT TO IMPACT TASMANIA, VICTORIA, SA, NSW *****
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Good
evening everyone... HUGE week coming up in weather for south eastern
Australia starting this weekend until next weekend!
Yes
it may be September but south eastern Australia will be seeing
weather more more reflective of mid July the coming 7-10 days!
Numerous
cold fronts and cold air troughs will barrel there way into south
eastern Australia starting today and tonight with some light rain
over parts of SA as well as the odd rumble.
It
will progressively get colder and colder with snow becoming a feature
in Tasmania and Victoria early next week.
WINDS
Will be a problem especially in Victoria tomorrow and possibly
southern NSW and Tasmania. The BOM have already issued a severe
weather warning for large parts of Victoria for Saturday with wind
gusts possible 70-100km/h and as high as 120km/h about the alps.
Strong
to gale force westerly winds will continue into early next week
especially high altitude and about the coasts in Tasmania, Victoria,
south east coast of SA and possibly into southern NSW.
SNOW:
Heavy snow is predicted for the VIC, NSW and TAS ski resorts/high
altitude 50-100cms of fresh snow is predicted the coming week! Snow
will fall to 300 metres in Tasmania and 400 metres in Victoria
including the Otway ranges, Grampians, Ballarat region may all see
some snow. Snow will also fall close to the ACT and light snowfalls
is also a chance about the central tablelands west of Sydney early
next week.
RAINFALL:
Most of Tasmania, Victoria, southern SA and southern NSW especially
about the ranges will see the best of the rain the coming week with
substantial falls (50mm+) likely about the south west coast of
Victoria, south east coast of SA and ranges, western Tasmania, Vic
ranges especially north eastern ranges and NSW southern ranges. Cold
air thunder and small hail is also likely south eastern SA, Victoria,
Tasmania and southern NSW with the colder air.
As
the trough moves through during the weekend isolated thunderstorms
are likely especially SA (Saturday), NSW and QLD (Sunday). However
little if any rain will fall from these storms especially in northern
NSW and southern QLD.
More
to come over the coming days.
Comments
from Kevin Hester
"My
layman's take on this polar weather coming north at this time of the
year is based largely on what Paul Beckwith has painstakingly taught
me over the years.
"I
would suggest that with the melt gaining pace in the Antarctic we are
starting to see the jetstreams meandering as we have in the North.
Jet stream winds today
More
evidence of a destabilised energy balance on the planet from what we
would have previously called 'normal'."
Meanwhile in Wellington, NZ we have amost no sun all winter and there have been landslips all over the the capital
A
massive landslide in Wellington has swept away backyards and left
houses teetering on a cliff edge.
At
least 90 people in the suburbs of Kingston and Berhampore were
evacuated early this morning when a slip about 40 metres wide by 100
metres long came away from under houses in Priscilla Crescent.
A
resident, who did not want to be identified, said her backyard had
disappeared.
Meanwhile Australia's winter temperatures reached a record
Meanwhile Australia's winter temperatures reached a record
Australia's
hottest winter on record, maximum temperatures up nearly 2C on the
long-term average
Winter
in Australia this year was hot and dry with the average maximum
temperature up nearly 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term trend.
ABC,
1
September, 2017
The
2017 winter was the hottest since 1910 when national records began,
according to Bureau
of Meteorology figures released today.
The
average maximum daily temperature recorded across all Australian
recording locations for June, July and August 2017 was 23.7C.
That
is a whopping 1.9C degrees above the baseline 1961 to 1990 average of
21.8C and smashes the previous record of 23.4C set in 2009.
Nights were still cold
The
warm weather was most pronounced in the north of Australia.
It
was the hottest winter on record for Western
Australia, Queensland and
the Northern Territory, while New South Wales and South Australia
made the top three.
Daily
minimums were also warmer than average in most of northern Australia
but not as far above average as the maximums.
In
contrast, inland NSW and northern Victoria had notably cold nights
with many areas 1C to 2C below average.
NSW
had its coldest average winter nights since 1997.
PHOTO: Rainfall
variations to average Australia June to August 2017. (Supplied:
Bureau of Meteorology)
Meanwhile
nationally it was the ninth driest winter on record. The only large
area to record rainfalls significantly above average was a pocket of
central NT as a result of one rain event in mid-July.
Skies stay clear
Andrew
Watkins, manager of extended and long-range forecasts at the Bureau
of Meteorology, said the real reason for the warmth was the
persistent high pressure seen particularly during early winter.
"But
you also have to add to that the long-term warming trend," he
said.
"The higher than average pressure has kept the skies clear and rain away — meaning more heating of the inland from the sun and less evaporative cooling from ample water on the ground."
Australian weather extremes
Winter
2017
|
||
---|---|---|
Hottest
day
|
39.6C
|
Mandora
WA, August 24
|
Coldest
day
|
-5.4C
|
Mount
Hotham Vic, August 27
|
Coldest
night
|
-12.1C
|
Perisher
Valley NSW, July 16
|
Warmest
night
|
26.6C
|
Coconut
Island Qld, June 2
|
Wettest
day
|
125.6mm
|
Perisher
Valley NSW, August 16
|
Source:
Bureau of Meteorology
Evaporative
cooling is the same process that cools you down when you sweat,
taking energy from the surrounding air to convert liquid water into
gaseous water vapour, leaving the surroundings cooler.
Without
a lot of water on the ground this year, large scale evaporative
cooling could not happen.
The
clear skies also explain the low minimum or overnight temperatures in
the southern states.
Without
a blanket of clouds, the heat from the day is lost to space, and
temperatures drop overnight.
High pressure prevented cold fronts
But
that is not all, Dr Watkins said: "We've also seen fewer cold
fronts able to penetrate inland due to the slow moving and more
southerly highs acting as a barrier to their normal northward
progression".
So
not only has high-pressure prevented rain in the north but it has
also prevented the cold fronts which normally bring rain in the south
during winter.
According
to the climate scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology, the story
behind the heat in northern Australia is more about what has not been
happening.
In
a standard winter there would be several south-easterly surges,
bringing cold air into the tropics.
This
year these surges were almost completely missing — blocked by that
high pressure — until very late in the season.
So was the hot weather predicted?
The
short answer is yes. The Bureau of Meteorology's 2017 winter
outlook released
in May, showed a high chance of exceeding median maximum
temperatures.
Going
into winter, high pressure conditions were likely.
PHOTO: Chance
of exceeding the median max temp June to August 2017 (Supplied:
Bureau of Meteorology
)
)
"Our
reasoning back at the time was that despite neutral ENSO and IOD
patterns, the Pacific and Indian oceans were warmer than average,
with cooler conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean near WA," Dr
Watkins said.
Warm
ocean temperatures are an indication of the energy available to the
system, while cool temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean would
prevent the lift required to mix up and break down a growing region
of high pressure.
What about the long-term warming trend?
Nineteen
of the last 20 winters have now had average maximum daily
temperatures above the 1961 to 1990 average.
Andrew
King, climate extremes research fellow from the University of
Melbourne, uses a range of computer climate models created all over
the world to tease out the different factors causing extreme weather
events.
His
analysis of the factors behind this winter's record heat showed that
the influence of climate change increased the likelihood of this
winter's record warmth by at least щixty-fold.
Dr
King said a very clear human influence could be seen in Australia's
winter.
Spring outlook
According
to BoM's new spring outlook released yesterday, it looks like spring
is going to continue to be warmer than average for the north and
southeast of the country.
While
rainfall will be below average for south-west WA, it will be above
average for south-east Queensland and far-east Gippsland.
No
matter what comes in spring, winter 2017 is one for the record books.
Their material is WAY less useful than the Australian and designed to conceal as much as it is to inform
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