Hurricane Maria Lashing the Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos

Hurricane Maria Lashing the Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos as Puerto Rico Dries Out; U.S. Rip Current, High Surf Threat

Wunderground,

21 September, 2017

Hurricane Maria, a major hurricane, continues to lash the Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos with heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge as major flooding continues in Puerto Rico. Conditions are deteriorating in the southeast Bahamas as Maria approaches.

Maria is likely to bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to the U.S. East Coast this weekend into next week. The center of Maria should remain well to the east of the Southeast coast through the next five days.

(FULL MARIA COVERAGE: Hurricane Central)

Happening Now

Hurricane Maria is currently located about 90 miles north-northeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic or about 65 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island, and is moving northwest at near 8 mph.

(INTERACTIVE LOOP: Track Maria Now)

Current Storm Status

Maria continues to pound the Dominican Republic with heavy rain and strong winds. Wind gusts over 60 mph have been clocked along the northeast Dominican Republic coast, including in the resort city of Punta Cana.

Rainbands continue to soak parts of Puerto Rico even as the center of the hurricane moves away. The National Weather Service says that major flooding was ongoing in Puerto Rico on the Rio Grande de Loiza, Rio Grande de Manati and La Plata basins.

At least one rain gauge near Caguas, Puerto Rico, has reported more than 30 inches of rain from Maria.

Conditions are deteriorating in the Turks and Caicos and far southeast Bahamas as Maria approaches.

Current Watches/Warnings

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. This means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the central Bahamas.

Watches and Warnings

Forecast: Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos and Southeast Bahamas

Maria's core will continue to pull away from Puerto Rico, but bands of locally heavy rainfall will still be possible there through Friday as tropical moisture streams northward on the southeast side of Maria.

Portions of the Dominican Republic, especially near the northeastern coast, should see heavy rain and strong winds continue into Friday. Tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds can be expected in the northern Dominican Republic.

Projected Path

It is possible that Maria could regain Category 4 status during the overnight hours over warm Atlantic waters and a favorable atmospheric environment and setup. 

In the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, hurricane conditions are expected to arrive early Friday, but conditions are deteriorating.

In the hurricane warning area of the Dominican Republic, water levels may rise by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels, with a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Water levels up to 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels are expected near and north of the center of Maria in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Puerto Rico may see an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain, with maximum storm totals up to 40 inches in some areas, through Saturday.

The northern and eastern Dominican Republic, as well as the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas, are forecast to pick up 8 to 16 inches of rain, with isolated 20-inch amounts.

These rainfall totals have the potential to produce widespread and life-threatening flooding.

Additional Rainfall Forecast

Maria's U.S. Impact: One Threat Regardless of Track

There is one guaranteed impact that the U.S. East Coast will see no matter what path Maria takes through next week: high surf and dangerous rip currents.

The Southeast coast will see the building surf and rip currents starting this weekend. Those heading to the beaches should avoid entering the waters, and boaters should be aware of rough surf conditions.

Forecast wave heights through this weekend. (NOAA Wave Watch Model)

Maria's high surf and rip current danger will then spread north along the rest of the U.S. East Coast through next week.

The latest forecast path from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for Maria shows the center of the hurricane should remain well off the Southeast coast during the next five days. That said, Maria still needs to be monitored closely for any possible forecast track changes that could result in additional impacts on the U.S. East Coast next week due to the complicated steering environment for the hurricane.

The upper-level weather pattern includes a weakening Jose, a building upper-level high-pressure system, then an arriving southward plunge of the jet stream into the East. For more details, see the link below.

(MORE: How Jose Could Affect Maria's Long-Term Steering)

Storm Recap

Maria rapidly intensified from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane Monday in almost as little time as the infamous 2005 Hurricane Wilma did, thanks to a combination of low wind shear, a moist atmosphere and warm ocean temperatures.

Maria then made landfall on the island of Dominica at 9:15 p.m. EDT Monday evening as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, the first Category 5 landfall on the island in NOAA's historical record.

A report from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission Tuesday evening confirmed Maria had strengthened even more as maximum sustained winds increased to 175 mph and central pressure dropped to 908 mb, a lower pressure than Irma had at any time.

That was the lowest pressure for any Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Dean's 905-mb minimum central pressure in August 2007. It is also the 10th-most-intense hurricane in Atlantic Basin history, based on minimum central pressure.

(MORE: Hurricane Maria Was One of the 10 Most Intense Atlantic Basin Hurricanes on Record)

The eye of Maria came ashore near the town of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 6:15 a.m. EDT Wednesday morning as a Category 4hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Maria was the strongest Puerto Rico landfall since the Category 5 September 1928 San Felipe/Lake Okeechobee hurricane.

Prior to both Irma and Maria, only four other Category 4 hurricanes had tracked within 75 miles of central Puerto Rico in historical records dating to the late 19th century. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 was the last to do so prior to 2017, though it had weakened to aCategory 3 hurricane as it clipped the northeast tip of Puerto Rico, according to the NOAA best tracks database. 

Here is a sampling of peak wind gusts that were observed in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Thanks to NOAA meteorologist Alex Lamers for assistance compiling these peak gusts.

• Western St. Croix, Virgin Islands: 137 mph (sustained winds of 106 mph) 
• Isla Culebrita, Puerto Rico: 137 mph
• Gurabo, Puerto Rico: 120 mph (WeatherFlow station)
• Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico: 118 mph
• El Negro, Puerto Rico: 116 mph
• Yabucoa, Puerto Rico: 116 mph (WeatherFlow station)
• Arecibo, Puerto Rico: 111 mph
• San Juan, Puerto Rico: 110 mph (WeatherFlow station)
• Fajardo, Puerto Rico: 100 mph
• San Juan (Luis Muñoz Marin Int'l Airport), Puerto Rico: 95 mph
• St. Thomas, Virgin Islands: 86 mph

A storm surge of over 5 feet was recorded Wednesday by a NOAA tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico.

Here are some other peak storm-surge values from Wednesday, above the average high-tide level:

• San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico: About 2.4 feet
• Fajardo, Puerto Rico: About 2.3 feet
• Arecibo, Puerto Rico: About 2.2 feet
• Christiansted Harbor, St. Croix, Virgin Islands: About 2 feet
• Culebra, Puerto Rico: About 1.7 feet
• St. John (Lameshur Bay), Virgin Islands: About 1.5 feet

According to the National Weather Service office in San Juan, Puerto Rico, rain rates approached 5 to 7 inches per hour Wednesday morning.

This torrential rain prompted flash flood warnings in much of Puerto Rico and parts of the Virgin Islands.

Flash flood emergencies were issued for the Rio de la Plata Basin. River levels had risen 20 feet since midnight Tuesday night near the town of Comerio. 

Over a dozen river gauges reported levels above flood stage. The Rio Grande de Manati near Ciales shattered its previous record by over 17 feet, and the Rio Gurabo at Gurabo neared its record crest set in September 1960. Other record levels have been seen, as well, including the Rio Grande de Manati near Manati (previous record was set in September 1996) and the Rio Grande de Arecibo above Arecibo (previous record was set in May 1985).

(MORE: NWS Current P.R. River Flood Status)