Hurricane Maria is now "extremely dangerous" Cat-4 hurricane

Hurricane Maria Intensifies To "Extremely Dangerous" Cat-4 Storm Ahead Of Puerto Rico

Zero Hedge,

18 September, 2017

Does this look familiar?

As AP reports, Hurricane Maria has intensified into a dangerous Category 4 storm as it bears down on the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Monday the storm is growing in strength as it approaches land. The eye of the storm is expected to pass near the island of Dominica on Monday evening.

 The center called the storm "extremely dangerous," with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 kph).

 At 5 p.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 45 miles (70 kilometers) east-southeast of Dominica.

A Hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques.

*  *  *

As we detaile earlier, less than two weeks after Hurricane Irma hammered the Caribbean, leaving the tiny island of Barbuda uninhabitable and hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans without power, Hurricane Maria is expected to follow closely behind its predecessor, delivering another destructive blow to the region before most areas affected by Irma have had time to recover. As Hurricane Maria hastens toward the eastern Caribbean, forecasters are warning that it could strengthen into a major storm by the time it passes through the Leeward Islands later Monday, according to CBS. That poses a huge problem for residents of the Caribbean.

After reaching category-one hurricane strength on Sunday, CBS reports that Maria is expected to quickly become much stronger over the next two days and follow a path that would take it near many of the islands wrecked by Hurricane Irma and on to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The National Hurricane Center has already issued advisories for much of the Caribbean. Here’s a summary of the NHC’s latest update, including stats about Maria’s location and attributes as of 5 a.m. Monday. Note that the storm has maximum wind speeds of 90 mph….

"Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it moves through the Leeward Islands," according to the National Hurricane Center's latest update.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Indeed, Maria is likely to be at category 3 or 4 storm by the time it moves into the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea, according to NHC forecasts. While only one of three storms churning in the Atlantic Ocean, it poses the biggest threat to the Caribbean, which is struggling to recover from Irma.

Hurricane conditions should begin to affect parts of the Leeward Islands later Monday and Monday night, potentially causing a storm surge that raises water levels by four to six feet near Maria's center. The storm was predicted to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain across the islands, with more in isolated areas.

But in what’s perhaps the biggest concern, at least for the US government, Maria could make landfall on Puerto Rico, causing potentially more devastation than Irma, which passed close by the island, but didn't make landfall.

To wit, Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello said officials had prepared about 450 shelters with a capacity for nearly 68,000 people, or even 125,000 in an emergency. He said schools were cancelled for Monday and government employees would work only a half day. Officials in the Dominican Republic urged people to leave areas prone to flooding and said fishermen should remain in port, according to CBS.

Worse still, some forecasters are warning that by the time Maria makes landfall in PR, it could be a category four storm.

Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA

Steve Herman Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops

#HurricaneMaria could hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday as a Cat 4.

Steve Herman added,

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane #Maria Advisory 7: Maria Forecast to Become a Major Hurricane as it Moves Near The Leeward Islands. http://go.usa.gov/W3H 

2:56 PM - 18 Sep 2017

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane #Jose Advisory 52: Jose Weakens a Little. Still Moving Northward. http://go.usa.gov/W3H 

8:48 PM - 18 Sep 2017

 Meanwhile the National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Jose - one of three active storms in the Atlantic - has begun to weaken as it moves northward past the east coast of the US. While the storm appears to be too far away from the coastline to threaten a landfall, it could create “potentially dangerous surf and rip currents…along the east coast of the US” from Delaware to Cape Cod. Early Monday, Jose was centered about 280 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and was moving north at 9 mph. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Norma threatened Mexico's Los Cabos resort area at the southern end of the Baja California peninsula seemed to ease as forecasters said the storm's center was likely to remain offshore.

Major Hurricane Maria Could Hit 150 Mph+ Intensity as it Barrels Toward Puerto Rico

Robertscribbler,

18 September, 2017

As of early afternoon on September 18, Hurricane Maria had reached major hurricane intensity of 125 mph maximum sustained winds and a 956 mb minimum central pressure. Moving west-northwest at 10 mph, the storm is tracking through already the hurricane-weary eastern Caribbean islands on a path toward a Puerto Rico still recovering from its close brush with Category 5 Hurricane Irma.

(National Hurricane Center’s [NHC] projected path and intensity for Maria shows a major hurricane threatening Puerto Rico over the next two days. Image source: NHC.)

Maria is expected to track over very warm Caribbean waters in the range of 84 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit (29+ C) as it enters a favorable atmospheric environment. And forecasters now call for Maria to rapidly intensify. Hurricane watches have already been issued for the American territory of Puerto Rico. And the present official Hurricane Center track and forecast intensity for Maria (see above image) shows a severe blow by a powerful category 4 storm striking somewhere along southeastern Puerto Rico early Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.

2017 Already a Season for the Record Books

It’s worth noting that some models presently show Maria tracking north of Puerto Rico. So the island could still avoid a direct hit. But the current official consensus is a rather grim forecast.

(IR satellite imagery of Maria shows an increasingly organized storm. Forecast points and sea surface temperatures included for reference. Image source: National Hurricane Center.)

Maria is the fourth major hurricane to form in the Atlantic during 2017 — which has been an exceptional season in many respects. This year saw the early formation of Arlene in April — only the second named storm recorded to have formed during that month. It saw the strongest hurricane ever to form outside of the Carribbean or Gulf of Mexico — Irma — which was also tied as the strongest land falling hurricane in the Atlantic. Both Category 4 Harvey and Irma struck the continental U.S. — the first time two Cat 4 storms have struck the states in a single month. And Harvey produced the heaviest recorded rainfall total from a tropical system at 51.88 inches. Overall damage estimates from the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season presently stand at 132 billion dollars — which makes this season the second costliest so far (behind 2005).

How Climate Change and Other Global Factors Contributed

With damages from Harvey and Irma still uncounted, with Maria barreling in, and with a week and a half left to September and all of October remaining, it’s likely that 2017 will see more to come. Though Irma and Jose have churned up cooler waters in their wakes, large sections of the Gulf, Caribbean, and North Atlantic remain considerably warmer than normal.

(Sea surface temperature anomaly map shows that much of the North Atlantic and Carribbean are between 0.5 and 2 C warmer than the already warmer than normal 30-year average. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Meanwhile, a very vigorous Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) is still producing powerful thunderstorms over Africa. And cool water upwelling in the Pacific has generated La Nina-like conditions that tend to cut down on Atlantic wind shear — allowing more storms to fully develop and tap those warmer than normal waters to reach higher maximum intensities. Some of these factors — particularly the warmer than normal surface waters and possibly the increased intensity of ITCZ thunderstorms are climate change related. So yes, statements from those like Dr. Michael Mann claiming that this season’s hurricanes were made worse by climate change are absolutely valid.

(UPDATES TO FOLLOW)

RELATED STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION:

Links:

National Hurricane Center

Earth Nullschool