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"Monster"
Irma Is Now The Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record As Florida
Preps For "Catastrophe"
5
September, 2017
Update
3: The
Irma hits just keep on coming, with the NHC Atlantic Ops twitter page
reporting that as of this moment, Irma is now the stronger hurricane
in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico
in NHC records. “Preparations should be rushed to completion in the
hurricane warning area,” the NHC said.
#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records http://hurricanes.gov
Taking
things to the next level, literally, meteorologist Eric Holthaus
writes that Hurricane Irma is now expected to *exceed* the
theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment, or as
he puts it "Redefining the rules."
Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment. Redefining the rules.
Puerto
Rican Governor Ricardo Rossello urged the 3.4 million residents of
the U.S. territory to seek refuge in one of 460 hurricane shelters
before the storm is expected to hit as early as Tuesday night. “This
is something without precedent,” Rossello told a news conference.
He will ask U.S. President Donald Trump to declare a federal state of
emergency even before the storm passes to allow disbursement of U.S.
emergency funds.
Gary
Randall, head of the Blue Waters Resort on Antigua’s north coast,
said the staff had boarded up windows, stripped trees of coconuts and
fronds and secured anything that could become a hazard. “I wasn’t
that nervous yesterday, but today I‘m nervous,” Randall said by
telephone, adding that he expected the hotel’s beach to be swept
away and much of the 108-room property to be flooded.
According
to Bloomberg,
Irma’s current path - headed straight for Florida - has prompted
the state to prepare for the "catastrophic" system.
Unlike
Harvey, which caused widespread damage, power outages and flooding
and taking almost a fifth of U.S. oil refining capacity offline, Irma
is a bigger threat to agriculture, with orange juice futures surging.
Airlines
have canceled flights across the Caribbean and are adding planes to
evacuate tourists, while cruise-line stocks have tumbled.
A strike on Florida would be the first time since 1964 that the U.S. was hit by back-to-back storms of Category 3 or more and only the second time since 1851, Henson said. Irma is now among the 7 most powerful storms on record to cross the Atlantic.
“Our biggest concern is Florida citrus,” said Joel Widenor, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. “There is big enough fruit on the trees that the fruit could drop off, it could literally get blown off. The bigger issue is tree damage that is a lot harder to recover from.”
Some
more facts: Florida is the world’s largest producer of orange juice
after Brazil. About two-thirds of the state’s citrus crop is
located in the lower two-thirds of the peninsula. Orange juice for
November delivery jumped as much as 6.9 percent to $1.4595 a pound on
ICE Futures U.S. Tuesday, the biggest intraday gain for the contract
since Jan. 28, 2016. Cotton for December delivery jumped by the
3-cent exchange limit, or 4.2 percent, to 74.88 cents a pound.
Aggregate trading for both commodities for this time doubled compared
with the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There
is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week,” the
National Hurricane Center said after Governor Rick Scott declared an
emergency.
There
is still hope that a direct hit will be avoided: "The expected
path has shifted considerably west over the last two days and can
still change over the next two," said Olivier Jakob, founder of
energy consultant Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “We cannot
yet rule out a move further west with a Louisiana risk.”
Irma’s track could shift as it nears Cuba and Florida, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist with Weather Underground in Boulder, Colorado. One possibility is a turn to the north that would take the storm up the Florida peninsula.
“It is four to five days away,” Henson said. “In hurricane-land that is a pretty long time span.”
Beyond
the threat to people and property in the Caribbean, the focus for now
is on agriculture, Jakob said. Irma is leading traders to be “long
orange Juice futures rather than gasoline futures," he said.
Only
three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S.
states, Henson
told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the
Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut
across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a
Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further
analysis.
“It
is obviously a rare breed,” Henson said. “We are in rare
territory.”
Hurricane #Irma is still intensifying. Now up to 155-knots (180 mph)
Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
* *
*
Update
2: While
few are willing to admit it yet, according to meteorologist Ryan
Maye, Hurricane Irma is still intensifying, with winds up to
155-knots (180 mph) and that extrapolating Saffir-Simpson
scale, 158-knots
would be Category 6.
* *
*
Update: Irma
has been upgraded from a Cat 5+ Hurricane to "Potentially
Catastrophic" Cat 5++ storm, with winds now near 180 mph gusting
to 220 mph, still moving due west at 14 mph.
#Irma has gone from Cat 5+ to Cat 5++, winds are now near 180 mph gusting to 220 mph, mvng due west at 14 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051159.shtml …
?
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).
* *
*
Irma
has strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" Category 5
hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory at
7:45am AST. According to the Hurricane center, NOAA and Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Irma has
intensified into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.
Recon finds surface winds of 152 knots (175 mph) in #Irma's right front quadrant. Holy crap.
As
of this moment, the hurricane is located 270 miles east of Antigua,
moving west at 14 mph. States of emergency were declared in Puerto
Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and all of Florida while people on
various Caribbean islands boarded up homes and rushed to find
last-minute supplies, forming long lines outside supermarkets and gas
stations. This morning the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Cabo Engano to northern border with Haiti; Tropical Storm
Watch from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.
BREAKING: Hurricane #Irma is the first Category 5 storm of the 2017 Atlantic season. Winds are at 175 mph. This is a very dangerous storm!
According
to meteorologists, Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on
record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is
Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
Ultimately,
the question is how strong Irma will be when it inevitably makes
landfall on the Eastern Seaboard, somewhere in the vicinity of Miami.
Meanwhile,
officials across the northeastern Caribbean canceled airline flights,
shuttered schools and urged people to hunker down indoors as
Hurricane Irma barreled toward the region, now as an "extremely
powerful" Category 5 storm. Irma's maximum sustained winds
increased to near 175 mph early Tuesday.
According
to AP, emergency
officials warned that the
storm could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain, unleash
landslides and dangerous flash floods and generate waves of up to 23
feet (7 meters) as the storm drew loser.
"We're
looking at Irma as a very significant event," Ronald Jackson,
executive director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management
Agency, said by phone. "I can't recall a tropical cone
developing that rapidly into a major hurricane prior to arriving in
the central Caribbean."
U.S.
residents were urged to monitor the storm's progress in case it
should turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. "This
hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast.
It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other
governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of
(Hurricane) Harvey," Evan Myers, chief operating officer of
AccuWeather, said in a statement.
In
the Caribbean, the
director of Puerto Rico's power company predicted that storm damage
could leave some areas of the U.S. territory without electricity for
four to six months. But
"some areas will have power (back) in less than a week,"
Ricardo Ramos told radio station Notiuno 630 AM.
The
power company's system has deteriorated greatly amid Puerto Rico's
decade-long recession, and the territory experienced an islandwide
outage last year. Meanwhile, the governor of the British Virgin
Islands urged people on Anegada island to leave if they could, noting
that Irma's eye was expected to pass 35 miles (56 kilometers) from
the capital of Road Town.
"This
is not an opportunity to go outside and try to have fun with a
hurricane," U.S. Virgin Is
lands Gov. Kenneth Mapp warned. "It's
not time to get on a surfboard."
Antigua
and Anguilla shuttered schools Monday, and government office closures
were expected to follow. On the tiny island of Barbuda, hotel manager
Andrea Christian closed the Palm Tree Guest House. She said she was
not afraid even though it would be her first time facing a storm of
that magnitude.
"We
can't do anything about it," Christian said by phone, adding
that she had stocked up on food and water. "We just have to wait
it out."
Both
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands expected 4 inches to 8 inches
(10-20 centimeters) of rain and winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of up
to 60 mph. Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello activated the National
Guard, canceled classes for Tuesday and declared a half-day of work.
He also warned of flooding and power outages. "It's no secret
that the infrastructure of the Puerto Rico Power Authority is
deteriorated," Rossello said.
Meteorologist
Roberto Garcia warned that Puerto Rico could experience
hurricane-like conditions in the next 48 hours should the storm's
path shift. "Any
deviation, which is still possible, could bring even more severe
conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands," Garcia
said. The U.S. Virgin Islands said the school year would open Friday
instead of Tuesday.
Gov.
Kenneth Mapp said most hotels in the U.S. territory were at capacity
with some 5,000 tourists. He noted the storm was expected to pass 40
miles (64 kilometers) north of St. Thomas and warned that the island
could experience sustained winds as high as 80 mph
"It's
not a lot of distance," he said, adding: "It could affect
us in a tremendous way. I'm not saying that to alarm anyone or scare
anyone, but I want the Virgin Islands to be prepared."
Residents
on the U.S. East Coast were urged to monitor the storm's progress due
to the possibility it could turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or
the Carolinas.
"This hurricane has the potential to be a major
event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly
strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on
the heels of (Hurricane) Harvey," Evan Myers, chief operating
officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.
Just spoke to @POTUS - he offered the full resources of the federal government as Floridians prepare for Hurricane Irma.
In
Miami-Dade County, the early scramble was on to stock up on hurricane
supplies, reports CBS Miami. People were shopping for gasoline,
generators, food, batteries, and everything else they'd need get by
were Irma to hit the region hard.
"We
are not yet at the height of hurricane season and people have not
taken steps to get prepared yet," Miami-Dade County Emergency
Management Director Curt Sommerhoff said Monday. "We are
encouraging them to take those steps today." Miami-Dade
officials were to meet Tuesday to assess the danger.
Miami Mayor: "Expect Evacuation Order
On Wednesday Or Thursday"
With Hurricane Irma, now an “extremely dangerous” category 5 storm bearing down on southeastern Florida, the Miami Herald reports that Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez has told reporters that an evacuation order was "probably coming late Wednesday or early Thursday." According to the latest forecasts, the storm is expected to make landfall in the US this weekend, unless the jet stream pulls it in a more northerly direction.
Florida Governor Activates National
Guard As "Monster" Hurricane Irma Approaches
With the monster Cat-5 Hurricane Irma fast approaching what looks increasingly like an inevitable Florida landfall later this week, Governor Rick Scott has just announced that he has activated 100 members of the Florida Air and Army National Guard, with an additional 7,000 members expected to be activated Friday morning.
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