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Monster El Nino Hurls 43+ Foot Waves at US West Coast
10
December, 2015
For
NOAA, it looks like we’re well on the way toward seeing one of the
most powerful El Ninos ever recorded.
And already, there’s some brutal Fall and Winter weather events
starting to emerge as a result. One
event, in particular, is today roaring into the US West Coast like a
Godzilla-hurled freight train.
It’s
just one upshot of a Monster El Nino in a record warm world. A
weather and climate event — one likely pumped up by an overall
atmospheric warming of 1 C above 1880s levels — that will likely
continue to have severe and worsening global impacts over the coming
months.
(Ocean
waves hit insane heights of 43 feet [13.2 meters] today as another
powerful storm roars into the US West Coast. Image source: Earth
Nullschool.)
One
of the 3 Strongest El Ninos On Record
NOAA’s
September, October, November ONI Index, the key zone for measuring El
Nino strength, hit a +2.0 degree Celsius positive anomaly this
week. That’s
just 0.3 C shy of the most powerful El Nino ever recorded —
1997-1998 which peaked out at +2.3 C in the same monitor.
With October, November and December likely to show even hotter
overall readings for the Central Equatorial Pacific, it appears that
the 2015-2016 El Nino will strike very close to this ONI high
mark. Peak
weekly sea surface temperature values already exceeded top 1997-1998
temperature levels for
NOAA (+2.8 C for 1997-1998 vs + 3.1 C for 2015-2016). So we wait on
the ONI three month measure for October, November and December to
give broader confirmation.
The
other major El Nino monitor — the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in
Australia — has weekly sea surface temperatures peaking at +2.5 C
in the same zone. This is 0.2 C short of peak 1997-1998 values. BOM
notes that the current El Nino is near peak and that, according to
its own measures, is unlikely to exceed 1997-1998 but will likely hit
within the top 3 strongest events. According to BOM:
The 2015–16 El Niño is strong, and likely to rank in the top three events of the past 50 years. Presently, several key indicators fall short of their 1997–98 and 1982–83 values, both in the ocean (e.g. sub-surface temperatures, which have peaked around +8 °C this year, compared to +12 °C in 1997–98), and atmosphere (e.g. SOI, for which monthly values peaked around −20, while 1982–83 had several months at −30).
(NOAA
Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature [SST] anomaly tracking
appears to indicate that the 2015-2016 El Nino may have hit peak
during mid November. Though a second peak is possible in December,
atmospheric and ocean trends will tend to push for gradual SST
cooling over the coming months. Overall, the 2015 to 2016 El Nino is
likely to be among the top 3 strongest on record. A climate event
that in a world warmed by 1 C above 1880s values has the potential to
set off some very extreme weather over the coming months. Image
source: NOAA
SST Anoms 5N to 5S.)
Based
on a reading of these two analysis by expert agencies, we revise our
previous statements to come into line with NOAA and BOM forecasting.
Though it’s still possible that 2015-2016 may exceed peak 1997-1998
intensity, it is more likely that the current El Nino will fall into
the range of the top three most intense such events. This is likely
due to the fact that El Nino has probably already peaked and that
though some indicators show 2015 as exceeding 1997-1998 in intensity
(NOAA weekly SST values), the broader, long-term indicators still
rank 1997-1998 as the most intense in the modern record.
Potentially
Very Severe Weather on The Way
That’s
not to say that related weather events won’t be quite extreme. In
some respects, hottest ever atmospheric and ocean temperatures on a
global basis provide even more available energy for storms, heavy
rainfall, droughts, and wildfires. Globally, the Earth has warmed by
between 0.2 and 0.3 C from peak 1997-1998 atmospheric temperature
values to those we are likely to experience during 2015 and 2016.
That means rates of evaporation and precipitation have increased by
about 2 percent overall. In addition, new climate instabilities have
tended to arise due to increased rates of glacial melt, polar
amplification (especially in the Northern Hemisphere), and related
ocean surface warming along with the weakening of some of the major
oceanic heat conveying currents.
A
top 3 strongest El Nino firing off in this global climate environment
is, therefore, not entirely the same creature as a Monster El Nino
firing off during the 1980s or even the 1997-1998 El Nino. In
particular, the added atmospheric moisture loading, the slowing down
of the Gulf Stream off the US East Coast and related back-up of warm
water in that region, and the added rates of evaporation due to
overall warming of the Earth-Ocean system present potentially more
severe drought hazards for regions like Brazil and Australia,
potentially more severe extreme storm hazards for the US West Coast
as the storm track ramps up, and potentially more severe Winter
oceanic and coastal storm hazards for the US East Coast, the North
Atlantic and the United Kingdom.
Disaster
Officials Worry, Make Calls For Readiness
Federal
disaster officials are keenly aware of these risks and have been
issuing warnings for regions of the US West Coast since October. NOAA
and FEMA bulletins have urged people to keep extra food and water on
hand and to prepare for extended periods of sheltering in place
during heavy rainfall, landslide, snowfall or coastal flooding
events. Statements today continue to urge preparedness for what is
likely to be a very extreme Winter weather season.In
San Jose Mercury News,
FEMA emergency manager Bob Fenton expressed his extreme concern today
after a disaster preparedness drill in Sacramento:
“It is critical that citizens take the risk seriously. If you hear a warning to evacuate, act accordingly. People often want to ‘wait and see’ — but, please, don’t wait. Everything can be replaced, but your life can’t.”
The
US Southwest and South-Central California are especially vulnerable
to severe flooding events during strong El Ninos in the December,
January, February timeframe. Such events can deliver powerful rivers
of tropical moisture to this region. Called Pineapple Express, these
atmospheric rivers can develop along an arc running from the Equator,
through Hawaii and then terminating over the US Southwest. The most
extreme of these events have the potential to deliver 200, 500, or
1000 year deluges resulting in many feet of rainfall for the Central
Valley region. A
situation that some researchers have called an Ark-Storm and
have linked to the (likely El Nino-related) Great
Flood of 1862.
In
today’s context, we have one of the top 3 strongest El Ninos firing
off in an atmosphere that, due to human forced warming in the range
of 1 C, sees an overall 7-8 percent increase in the rate of
evaporation (vs 1880s contexts) and precipitation. So any river of
moisture that does develop may likewise become further engorged than
was previously typical, thus resulting in more severe rain storms and
a related heightened flood risk. It’s a risk, that in any case,
FEMA disaster managers are taking very seriously.
43
Foot Waves off US West Coast
As
officials issued warnings and FEMA managers drilled in Southern
California, another powerful storm packing 60-80 mile per hour winds,
heavy rains, and 43+ foot waves roared into the US West Coast this
week. The 960 mb storm kicked off coastal flood, gale and storm
warnings from Northern California through Washington State.
(Another
powerful storm roars into the US West Coast bringing with it flooding
rains, heavy surf, coastal storm surges, and mountain snows. The
currently very strong El Nino is likely deliver more severe storms of
this kind over the coming months. Image source: NOAA
GOES.)
Interior
flood warnings were also issued as between 4 and 18 inches of rain
fell over the past 3 days with 2-4 inches more expected today.
The event had already spurred over 9 landslides even as, according to
the Weather Channel, more
than two dozen river gauges had topped flood stage across Washington
and Oregon.
It’s a heavy soaking that began in November and just keeps getting
worse with each new storm.
These
storms are fueled by a powerful flood of heat and moisture boiling
off the Godzilla El Nino in the Pacific. A dynamic that’s
generating an extraordinarily powerful Pacific storm tack. This week,
models predict another extreme storm — one
that is expected to bomb out as a 930 mb monster packing 75 kt winds
and 52+ foot waves in the Bering Sea between Russia and Alaska.
And given the way El Nino is charging up the atmosphere, these
Pacific beasts are bound to keep roaring on in.
Links:
Hat
tip to DT Lange
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