Tuesday 13 May 2014

Donetsk votes for independence

As Noam Chomsky has pointed out many times the Powers -that-be, especially the liberals cannot stand grassroots democracy.  Never mind that the referendum reflects the will of the people - it is unacceptable. The people simply voted for the 'wrong' thing.


Ukraine's Donetsk region asking to join Russia, separatist leader says
Request comes just two hours after referendum results show 90% voted for independence from Ukraine


RT,
12 May, 2014

The "People's Republic of Donetsk" declared itself an independent country on Monday afternoon, and within two hours of doing so had asked to join Russia. Separatist leader Denis Pushilin told journalists that the self-proclaimed republic would ask Moscow to consider absorbing the region, which borders Russia, into its fold.

But it remains extremely doubtful whether Moscow will carry out a Crimea-style annexation of the region, which together with neighbouring Luhansk held a controversial referendum on independence on Sunday.

According to results announced by the de facto authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk – which also declared independence from Ukraine on Monday – about 90% and 96% respectively voted for state sovereignty. The referendums – which Kiev has dismissed as illegitimate – were hastily organised and marked by numerous violations.

The results were roundly condemned in the west, but Russia said it respected the results. However, instead of previous statements saying it would protect people in the regions with troops if need be, the Kremlin called for dialogue between the government in Kiev and the south-east regions of the country, suggesting that a Crimea-style annexation of the region for Moscow is not on the cards.

"In Moscow, we respect the will of the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and are counting on practical implementation of the outcome of the referendum in a civilised manner, without any repeat of violence and through dialogue," the Kremlin said in a statement.

In a press conference in Moscow the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, read out the Kremlin statement and added that only Russian television channels were telling "the truth in real time" about the crisis, whereas western news outlets were hiding the real causes.

Lavrov made no mention of the controversy surrounding the referendum, merely noting the "high voting activity" of the population despite attempts from Kiev to disrupt the vote. He said no new international talks were planned on Ukraine.

Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, told the country's parliament: "The farce which terrorists call the referendum will have no legal consequences except the criminal responsibility for its organisers."

The Kremlin has called the new government in Kiev "neo-fascist" and Kiev has accused Russia of organising the separatist movement by providing weapons and tactical advice. Nevertheless, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, last week asked the separatists to delay their referendum, a call that was ignored but appeared to be an attempt to distance Russia from the vote.

There were a number of irregularities with the count and procedure, and it seems unlikely that the figures announced are an accurate reflection of views in the region, with most of those who disagreed with the proposition staying at home.

Nevertheless, there has been an increasing mood of defiance, especially as a Ukrainian army operation against the armed separatists resulted in multiple casualties. It is hard to judge how many people support the armed takeover of government buildings and attempts to separate from Ukraine, but feelings are running high.

The referendum question was worded ambiguously, appearing to offer state sovereignty for the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics". Roman Lyagin, head of the de facto central election committee in Donetsk, said before the vote that nothing would change in terms of state borders as a result of the vote.

He said that in future the region would be free to decide whether to stay within Ukraine, become independent or join Russia. In the end, it apparently took just two hours to make the decision, apparently making a mockery of what voters had been told in the run-up.

In Luhansk, separatists announced that over 96% of ballots had been cast in favour of the independence of the region from Ukraine.

"Congratulations on the birth of the Luhansk republic," said Vasily Nikitin, deputy head of the separatist movement in the region. "We are now preparing an appeal to the UN and international community asking them to recognise us."

Nikitin said that the constitution of the new "country" was almost ready, and added that its residents would not participate in Ukrainian presidential elections planned for 25 May. Donetsk's de facto authorities have also said they will not allow voting in the elections. A key demand of Moscow has been to postpone the elections, in which businessman Petro Poroshenko is the leading contender.

In Luhansk, resident Anatoliy Sukharev, 80, approached Nikitin and asked whether there would be a second referendum on joining Russia.

"What is next? When are we going to have this referendum?" he asked. Nikitin said a second referendum would happen, but the republic needed to "organise as a country" first.

But for many Ukraine-oriented residents, recent events have been a tragedy.

"My father is a businessman, now he is trying to sell all his businesses here before moving away. Many people I know have already left," said Olesia, 20, who refused to give her last name fearing retribution.

"I can love Luhansk only if it is a Ukrainian Luhansk," she said.

The eastern regions are entering an uncertain situation, with tension and anger running high on both sides. Ukrainian army and affiliated paramilitary units killed unarmed civilians in Mariupol last week and in Krasnoarmeisk during the voting on Sunday. For their part, the rebels in Donetsk have taken hostages among pro-Ukraine activists and been accused of torture.

It is unclear whether either side is ready for talks. With a number of armed gangs in the region, there is every danger not only of conflict with Kiev forces, but also that it slips into violent chaos.

Kremlin-linked MP Vyacheslav Nikonov said on Russian television that the Ukrainian military operation in eastern Ukraine represented "genuine fascism" and said that "the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk deserve no less support from us, indeed they deserve much more support from us, than the residents of Crimea."

However, he added that Moscow would have to weight the "economic, political, and military risks" before deciding whether it should absorb the regions.

Gazprom, Russia's state energy company, also told Ukraine that it had to pay a $3.5bn (£2bn) gas debt, as well as pay in advance for deliveries in June, or supplies would be cut off.

The EU was due to announce on Monday that two Crimean companies and 13 further Russian officials would be subject to sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine. The EU has targeted a number of officials but the sanctions have been far narrower than US sanctions over Ukraine.



Referendum results in Donetsk and Lugansk Regions show landslide support for self-rule
Request comes just two hours after referendum results show 90% voted for independence from Ukraine



RT,
12 May, 2014

Follow RT's LIVE UPDATES on Eastern Ukraine

Almost 90 percent of voters in Donetsk Region have endorsed political independence from Kiev, the head of the Central Election Commission of the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’, Roman Lyagin, announced.
Counting the ballots proved to be surprisingly easy – the number of people who said ‘no’ was relatively small and there appeared to be only a tiny proportion of spoiled ballots, so we managed to carry out counting quite fast. The figures are as follows: 89.07 percent voted ‘for’, 10.19 percent voted ‘against’ and 0.74 percent of ballots were rendered ineligible,” Lyagin told journalists.
In Lugansk Region 96.2 percent of voters supported the region’s self-rule, according to the final figures announced by the local election commission.


This is the pile for all the yes votes :)
Despite fears that amid Kiev’s intensified military crackdown – which killed at least two civilians on referendum day – the turnout will be low, in both of the region it was unexpectedly high. In Donetsk it reached 74.87%, while in Lugansk the central election commission says 75% of eligible voters came to the polling stations.
With such a huge turnout, the referendums have been recognized as valid by both election commissions.
The acting president of Ukraine, Aleksandr Turchinov, has condemned as a “farce” referendums in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
This propaganda farce won’t have any legal consequences, except for criminal charges for its organizers,” Turchinov said, Interfax reported.
Following the referendum, officials of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have not ruled out that in case the situation in the region deteriorates, they may have to request peacekeeping forces to be deployed.
We will try to cope with it on our own; we don’t want this confrontation to increase, especially on our territory,” Denis Pushilin, co-chairman of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said. "If the situation deteriorates, we reserve the right to ask for a peacekeeping contingent,” he added.
Pushilin has also said that within hours the Donetsk People’s Republic may decide if it is going to stay with Ukraine or not. The republic has also decided not to take part in Ukraine’s presidential elections on May 25, according to media reports.
The referendums, according to Turchinov, were inspired by Russia to “totally destabilize the situation in Ukraine, disrupt the presidential election and overthrow the Ukrainian government.”
Calling the regional voting on self-determination illegal, Kiev sent its recently formed paramilitary forces to Donetsk and Lugansk regions on Sunday, in an apparent move to disrupt referendums.
As armored military vehicles blocked passage to polling stations, voting in four towns across Lugansk region was disrupted. In the Donetsk town of Krasnoarmeysk, the National Guard shot at a crowd and killed two civilians who were protesting their attempt to seize a polling station.


Despite fears that amid Kiev’s intensified military crackdown – which killed at least two civilians on referendum day – the turnout will be low, in both of the region it was unexpectedly high. In Donetsk it reached 74.87%, while in Lugansk the central election commission says 75% of eligible voters came to the polling stations.
With such a huge turnout, the referendums have been recognized as valid by both election commissions.
The acting president of Ukraine, Aleksandr Turchinov, has condemned as a “farce” referendums in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
This propaganda farce won’t have any legal consequences, except for criminal charges for its organizers,” Turchinov said, Interfax reported.
Following the referendum, officials of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have not ruled out that in case the situation in the region deteriorates, they may have to request peacekeeping forces to be deployed.
We will try to cope with it on our own; we don’t want this confrontation to increase, especially on our territory,” Denis Pushilin, co-chairman of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said. "If the situation deteriorates, we reserve the right to ask for a peacekeeping contingent,” he added.
Pushilin has also said that within hours the Donetsk People’s Republic may decide if it is going to stay with Ukraine or not. The republic has also decided not to take part in Ukraine’s presidential elections on May 25, according to media reports.
The referendums, according to Turchinov, were inspired by Russia to “totally destabilize the situation in Ukraine, disrupt the presidential election and overthrow the Ukrainian government.”
Calling the regional voting on self-determination illegal, Kiev sent its recently formed paramilitary forces to Donetsk and Lugansk regions on Sunday, in an apparent move to disrupt referendums.
As armored military vehicles blocked passage to polling stations, voting inThe people’s governor of the Donetsk Region, Pavel Gubarev, told journalists on Sunday that Donetsk and Lugansk will emerge as new legal entities as a result of the referendum. 

“The referendum for us is about creating a new state paradigm,” he said. 

Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the people’s mayor of Slavyansk, Donetsk Region, where some of the heaviest fighting between Ukrainian troops and self-defense activists took place, said the next step following the referendum would be developing closer ties with Russia. 

"Russia is our brotherly nation, [we hope for] full interaction with Russia, including entering the Customs Union,” Ponomaryov said.
One of the organizers of the referendum in Lugansk, Vasily Nikitin, told journalists that the region will appeal to the United Nations to recognize its independence, RIA Novosti reports. Nikitin also said Lugansk was not going to take part in the Ukrainian presidential election on May 25.
leader says it's probable that,after independence,the rgn 'll form an unit govt w/ .Acc. to him, other rgns 'll follow them

Moscow hopes the results of the referendums in eastern Ukraine will instigate dialogue between Kiev and the regions that voted in favor of self-rule, according to the Kremlin’s press-service.

Moscow respects the will of the people in Donetsk and Lugansk and hopes that the practical realization of the outcome of the referendums will be carried out in a civilized manner, without resorting to violence, through dialogue between representatives of Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk,” the statement reads.
The Kremlin says it welcomes all mediation efforts, including those by the OSCE.
Spokesman for the president, Dmitry Peskov earlier explained that Putin “did not urge, but recommended” that the votes be postponed. However, the spokesman says that “even considering the authority of the Russian president,” it was difficult for Donetsk and Lugansk authorities to follow his recommendation amid Kiev's ongoing military crackdown.
Both the EU and US have dismissed the ballots in eastern Ukraine as illegal.


People stand in a line to receive ballots from members (front) of a local election commission during the referendum on the status of Donetsk region in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol May 11, 2014. (Reuters/Marko Djurica)
People stand in a line to receive ballots from members (front) of a local election commission during the referendum on the status of Donetsk region in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol May 11, 2014. (Reuters/Marko Djurica)


If these referenda go forward, they will violate international law and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The United States will not recognize the results of these illegal referenda,” US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said in a statement late on Saturday. 



The European Union came up with a similar comment, adding that the referendums ran counter to the Geneva agreement on de-escalation reached by Ukraine, Russia, the EU and the United States last month. 

"The so-called referenda in ... parts of Lugansk and Donetsk Regions were illegal and we do not recognize the outcome. Those who organized the referenda have no democratic legitimacy," Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, said in emailed comments to Reuters.

OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and Swiss President Didier Burkhalter described the referendums in eastern Ukraine as “incompatible with the Ukrainian constitution and therefore illegal.” 

“Such provocative actions must be avoided,” Burkhalter said at a meeting of EU ministers in Brussels on Monday.
Despite the rejection of the referendums by Kiev and most Western countries, it won’t be so easy to ignore the results, international affairs expert Serdja Trifkovich believes. 

“After the referendum it will no longer be possible for the regime in Kiev to say that they do not want to negotiate with the so-called terrorists,” Trifkovich told RT. “They will be forced to acknowledge internally that they are facing the level of agreement among the people in the eastern regions that will prove it rather difficult to deal with by force.”




The CNN presstitutes are confused because they can't accept that Moscow has had a fairly consistent line throughout -  if Moscow was 'orchestrating' the whole thing then it's response is 'puzzling'.


Ukraine's Donetsk region asking to join Russia, separatist leader says




CNN,
9 May, 2014

(CNN) -- A separatist leader declared Monday that eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region was not only independent, but also would ask to join Russia -- a day after referendum organizers claim voters in the region chose to break away from Kiev.
Denis Pushilin, self-declared leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, told a crowd that no further referendum was needed to ask Russia to annex it.

Pro-Russian separatists held a referendum Sunday asking residents of the Donetsk region whether it should declare independence from Ukraine. Nearly 90% of voters in the area favored secession, an election official said Monday.
A similar question was put to voters in Luhansk. Preliminary results were expected Monday, officials said.

But a new poll for CNN suggests that support for alliance with Russia is much weaker than pro-Russian separatists say, even in the east.

Just over a third (37%) of Ukrainians in three eastern regions favor an alliance with Russia, while 14% of the region backs an alliance with the European Union and about half (49%) say Ukraine would be better off if it did not ally with either, the poll found.

"Eastern Ukraine" includes the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv.
Neither Ukraine's government nor the European Union immediately reacted to Pushilin's overture to Russia, though both dismissed Sunday's votes.

Ukraine expats vote in Moscow Some Ukraine voters seen voting twice Controversial vote in eastern Ukraine

"This propagandist farce will not have any legal consequences, only criminal responsibility of its organizers," acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said in a statement Monday.

"That farce the terrorists call a referendum is nothing else but a propagandist cover for killings, kidnapping, violence and other grave crimes," he said.

He reiterated that his government will continue fighting against "terrorists, saboteurs and criminals" but will negotiate with those in eastern Ukraine "who do not have blood on their hands and those who are ready to defend their goals and beliefs in a legal way."

A vote for autonomy is a vote for the self-destruction of the east, Turchynov has said.

It would cut residents off from the national economy and social programs, he said. "It is a step (to) nowhere for these regions. It is euphoria that may lead to very complex consequences, and many people can already feel them."

Polls close amid allegations of fraud and double-voting

Pushilin's announcement is reminiscent of separatists' moves in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed after Crimeans voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia in a March 16 referendum.

Nationwide, the ComRes poll for CNN poll found that 56% of Ukrainians feel a stronger sense of loyalty towards Europe, 19% towards Russia, and 22% towards neither.

The CNN findings come from a poll by the agency ComRes of 1,000 adult Ukrainians contacted by telephone in Russian and Ukrainian between May 7-11. Three percent said they didn't know. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.

Reactions from Russia, NATO, European Union

Russia welcomed Sunday's votes.

"Moscow respects the will of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and hopes that the practical implementation of the outcome of the referendums will proceed along civilized lines, without repeat outbreaks of violence," the Kremlin said in a statement.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Monday that "those referendums don't count." He called the vote "illegal."

The referendum was "organized in a chaotic manner with dubious and ambiguous questions," he said, adding that the only "thing that counts" is Ukraine's planned presidential election on May 25.

"I urge all actors to make sure that those general elections can be conducted in an orderly manner," Rasmussen said.

He said that he feels NATO and its allies have sent a "very clear message to Moscow" and assured its allies. Recently, U.S. Army forces have been deployed to Poland and three Baltic states. Amanpour challenged Rasmussen, asking him whether he thought that was enough to demonstrate "heft."

Rasmussen responded that NATO is "considering further steps."

"Those further steps might include an update of existing defense plans, development of new defense plans, enhanced exercises and also appropriate deployment," he said.

It's too early, he said, to describe anything more specifically, "but we will not hesitate to take further steps if needed," he said.

U.S. exercises in Poland: What's the message?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also described the referendum as illegitimate and said the focus should be on the May 25 presidential election in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the European Union imposed sanctions related to the Ukraine crisis on another 13 people, bringing the total number to 61, an EU diplomat said Monday.

Details about the sanctions given to the 13 weren't immediately available, but previously announced sanctions included asset freezes and visa bans.

The diplomat did not name the newly sanctioned people or reveal their nationalities. Previous targets included Dmitry Kozak, Russia's deputy prime minister; Valery Gerasimov, Russia's military chief; and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, including Pushilin.

The EU also has imposed sanctions on two entities in Crimea, the diplomat said Monday.

Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have warned that Russia could face more consequences if the Ukrainian presidential vote does not go ahead as planned.

"If no internationally recognized presidential election were to take place, this would inevitably further destabilize the country," Merkel said.

In that case, she said, "we are ready to take further sanctions against Russia."
Merkel and Hollande also said that Russian troops along the Ukrainian border "should undertake visible steps to reduce their readiness."

Putin announced a troop pullback Wednesday, but NATO says it has seen no signs of a withdrawal of Russian forces from the border area.

Russia annexed the southern region of Crimea after announced results in a separatist referendum showed more than 90% in favor of joining Russia. In an independent survey by the Pew Research Center, 54% of Crimea residents showed support for secession.
The Kremlin has said that it has no interest in annexing other parts of Ukraine. But it is pushing for the country to adopt a constitution that would give regions where Russian is widely spoken a larger voice in policy-making.

Critics fear that the creation of autonomous pro-Russian regions in Ukraine would cement alliances with the Kremlin that would give it essential control over them.



Donetsk Warns Ukraine Army Located In The East To "Leave In 48 Hours" Or Face War


12 May, 2014




UpdateAnd just to make sure Russia has a catalyst:
  • UKRAINE FORCES ATTACK EASTERN CITY OF SLOVYANSK, INTERFAX SAYS
* * *

With the US having voiced its support for Ukraine's "anti-terrorist" operations, and Russia strongly supportive of pro-Russian people's decisions to regional self-determination, the threats coming from the newly independent regions are a concern (that markets clearly do not care about):
  • DONETSK ARMY SAYS WILL FIGHT UKRAINE FORCES IF DEADLINE IGNORED
Ukrainian military forces have 48 hours to leave the region or Donetsk own "anti-terrorist" forces will fight. Of course, with the US already saying the referendums are illegal and not recognizing them, we suspect it will be time for more sanctions soon (despite the lessons below).







Insurgent group army of so-called Donetsk People’s Republic “will start its own anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk region” against Ukrainian military forces if they don’t heed seperatist army chief Igor Girkin’s 48-hour ultimatum to leave or obey him, head of seperatist group, Denis Pushilin, says by phone.

So... buy stocks?

And a different perspective on which the western approach to resolving the Ukraine crisis may not be exactly "working."


1. Don’t overreach. Policymakers should avoid inflated expectations of what sanctions can accomplish. Sanctions seldom impair the military potential or change the policies of an important targeted power. Modest goals contribute to successful outcomes. Thus it may make more sense to achieve the modest goal of thwarting an impending invasion of Eastern Ukraine than to try to reverse the fait accompli of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

2. Russian economic integration with the West is an advantage. Economic sanctions are most effective when aimed against close trading partners with more to lose.

3. Don’t count on Russian public opinion. It is hard to “bully a bully” with economic measures. Democratic regimes are more susceptible to economic pressure than autocratic regimes like Russia.

4. Slam the hammer; don’t turn the screw. Economic sanctions are best deployed with maximum impact. Gradually imposed steps may simply strengthen the target national government’s resolve. In the present case, threatening very heavy sanctions if Russian armed forces cross the Ukrainian border has the best chance of deterrence.

5. International cooperation is not always essential, but in the case of Russia, it probably is. A large coalition of sanctioning countries does not necessarily make the sanctions highly likely to succeed. Financial sanctions against Iran, on the other hand, succeeded in large part because they were backed by an international coalition of countries willing to forgo Iranian oil imports and dealings with Iranian banks. To be sure, the effort to gain international support can dilute their scope. But the United States has little choice but to gain the cooperation of Western Europe in this case.

6. Choose the right tool. Sanctions deployed in conjunction with other measures, such as covert action or military operations, increase chances of success. So far, the United States has been reluctant to provide substantial military assistance to Ukraine, out of concern that Russia will escalate its own intervention.  Instead, the military dimension of US support has been limited to greater assistance to NATO allies in the region, especially Poland.

7. Don’t be a cheapskate or spendthrift. Sanctioning governments must balance the benefits against the costs borne domestically to sustain public support at home. At present, the United States, but especially Europe, are facing the resistance of major business firms over the possibility of severe energy and financial sanctions.

8. Look before you leap. Sanctioning governments should weigh their means and objectives against unintended costs and consequences.  In the Ukrainian case, all signs indicate that President Obama and his European counterparts (especially Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany) are giving each step of the sanctions regime their carefully guarded attention.


Predictably....

US says Eastern Ukraine vote illegal



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