Posts
California is toast!
California
firefighters contain wildfires but dry winds keep region on alert
Evacuation
orders lifted after containment of two brush fires which each burned
hundreds of acres in southern California
13
May, 2014
Firefighters
in southern California have contained two wildfires but scorching
temperatures and dry winds are keeping the region on alert for more
blazes.
Ground
crews backed by helicopters and air tankers checked the spread of
brush fires, which each burned hundreds of acres in San Diego and
Santa Barbara, prompting authorities to lift evacuation orders and
allow people to return home on Wednesday.
But
with temperatures expected to break records and exceed 100F (38C) in
places, emergency crews remained on standby for the outbreak of new,
fast-moving fires.
"Santa
Ana winds, record heat, and low humidity will persist in southern
California through Thursday," said Jon Erdman, a meteorologist
with weather.com. "Beginning Friday, winds will begin to turn
onshore, with much cooler 60s and 70s returning to the coast this
weekend."
The
fire in northern San Diego county flared on Tuesday morning near
Rancho Bernado and by evening had burned 1,550 acres of canyons and
ridges, threatening rural homes and triggering evacuation orders for
20,000 people, including several hundred within San Diego city
limits.
Local
fire departments and the state department of forestry and fire
protection cut fires lines and used fixed-wing aircraft and
helicopters to douse the flames before they damaged property.
San
Diego's mayor, Kevin Faulconer, praised “fantastic teamwork” but
said work continued. "Obviously the battle is not over."
Some
250 miles north the fire in Santa Barbara consumed 600 acres in the
San Miguelito Canyon area on Tuesday, prompting mandatory evacuation
orders for 1,200 homes and businesses, but by Wednesday morning it
was 50% contained.
The cause of the fires was not immediately known. This week's heat wave and brush left tinder-dry by years of drought have created ideal conditions for wildfires.
The
National Weather Service issued red-flag fire warnings and heat
advisories for the region earlier this week. Some forest roads have
been closed because of the danger.
California,
braced for a worsening drought and water shortages this summer,
received potentially good news last week: the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration increased the probability for El Niño
conditions developing next winter to 78%, up from 66% last month and
36% last November.
El
Niño – a term for when warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
in the Pacific Ocean affect the jet stream – can produce wetter
winters in California.
(Try
also rapid climate change and changes in the behavior of the Jet
Stream! - SMR)
For some common-sense and context read Robertscribbler
Mangled Jet Stream Delivers Record-Shattering Heat, Extreme Wildfires to California
(GFS
Model 40 hour forecast for May 15 shows 90 and 100 degree
temperatures spreading across most of California. Image
source: University
of Maine.
Data source: Global
Forecast System Model/NOAA.)
14
May, 2014
It’s
just mid-May, but a wave of record July-like heat and wildfires is
building for California and the US West.
A
high amplitude Jet Stream wave that has been in place over the US
West for more than a year now has resulted in hot, dry conditions
throughout this very long period. It is an ongoing insult that
contributed to the worst California drought in more than 100 years. A
set of weather anomalies that continues to leave California and the
US Southwest very vulnerable to heatwaves, fires and amplifying
droughts as summer continues to emerge.
The
pattern is essentially stuck — featuring a hot, pole-reaching, wave
of the Jet Stream continuously rising over the US West, Western
Canada and Alaska, and diving deep into the Arctic. It is a condition
climate researchers such as Dr. Jennifer Francis attribute to an
ongoing erosion and degradation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice. And
the predictions of Dr. Francis appear to have born out in both recent
observations and cutting edge scientific research showing how sea ice
loss has shoved the storm track away from California and the US
Southwest (see how Climate
Change Made the California Drought Worse).
In
any case, it is highly unusual for such an intense Jet Stream pattern
to remain fixed for so darn long.
Emerging
El Nino Contributes to 100 Degree (F) Heat
In
recent months, the strength of the heat flowing up through the Jet
Stream wave has been intensified by a growing pool of anomalously
warm water to the south in the Eastern Pacific. This gathering pool
of intensifying heat is a signal for the coming of El Nino. Come
winter, a strong El Nino might bring a radical and violent switch of
California weather to much more rainy conditions. But, for now, it
lends further energy to a gathering and extraordinary May heatwave
for the US West Coast.
It
is a flood of heat that is expected to bring 90 to 100 degree plus
temperatures for a broad zone from southeast California to the coast
and on northward through the Central Valley. And, already, the effect
is being felt for some regions. Yesterday, Van Nuys Airport in Los
Angeles shattered its previous record high temperature of 91 for the
date as temperatures rocketed to 93 F. Today, the forecast is for 98.
Tomorrow, 100. Friday 96.
This
forecast is for a string of four consecutive all-time record highs
during a period in which temperatures hit an extreme range of 18-25 F
above the typical daily peaks of 75 for this time of year.
Sacramento, meanwhile, is expected to tie the all-time high today at
100 F after reaching the same reading yesterday. Tomorrow’s
forecast is for a scorching 101 F. Typical average highs for this
time of year in Sacramento are around 80 F.
(Bernardo
Fire approaches El Camino Drive, threatens homes in Carlsbad. Image
source:Resident’s
Contribution to ABC 10′s Twitter Feed)
Santa
Anna Winds, Heat, Drought Spur Large Fires
Rising
Santa Anna winds in the range of 40 to 60 mph with maximum gusts as
high as 87 mph in the San Diego Mountains combine with relative
humidity values below 10% and extreme heat to create a high potential
for wildfire outbreaks. As a result, red flag fire hazard warnings
have been issued for a zone along California’s southwest coast and
into the south-central valleys.
By
Tuesday, two large fires — one in Bernardo, San Diego and a second
in Miguelito, Santa Barbara — had already erupted and consumed
hundreds of acres. The Bernardo fire, by early today, had rapidly
expanded to cover more than 1,550 acres forcing the evacuation of
over 20,000 people and 1,200 buildings. Three schools and one
military base were also evacuated as fires raced through valleys to
threaten expensive homes in developments on local ridges. As of late
morning, the fire was only 25% contained.
The
Bernardo fire, as of this writing, posed a severe threat to many
highly populated areas forcing numerous evacuations and even the
closing of El Camino Drive. Given conditions on the ground this is a
very dangerous situation in which the fire may undergo rapid
expansion. Up-to-the minute photos by local residents show rapidly
deteriorating and dangerous conditions (see
ABC 10′s live feed).
People in the area should exercise extreme caution and pay close
attention to local fire/weather bulletins.
The
Miguelito fire, on the other hand, had grown to 600 acres in just one
day as it threatened local ranches. Firefighters had, by late
morning, managed to contain 50% percent of that blaze.
Conditions
in Context
The
most recent record heat spike is likely to only exacerbate current
dire drought and fire issues for the state. Local reservoirs remain
very low and various water rationing and restriction regimes have
already been imposed in numerous districts. Atmospheric moisture
levels are also very low resulting in little in the way of
evaporative cooling once heating intensifies. The result is a high
risk for continued record heat, drought, and fire as spring proceeds
into summer.
(Mangled
Jet Stream pattern on May 14, 2014 features numerous high amplitude
Rossby Waves and hot-cool/east-west dipole patterns. High speed Jet
Stream flow is more indicative of a winter pattern, possibly due to
the retreat and temporary re-establishment of the polar vortex. But
the huge propagation of east-west/hot-cool dipoles and the continued
upper level air invasion of the northern polar zone point toward a
highly disrupted Jet Stream. Image source: University
of Maine.)
Though
highly anomalous and extreme for early May, the most recent
California heat spike is likely to abate by Friday and Saturday as an
onshore wind flow and slight weakening of the ridge is expected to
bring cooler conditions. Ongoing high amplitude Jet Stream waves,
however, are expected to continue to propagate over the US West Coast
with the ridge predicted to again re-strengthen later next week. The
added heating of the atmosphere as spring progresses into summer is
likely to further exaggerate this already extreme set of conditions.
So the atmosphere is rigged for further record heat spikes and the
potential for long periods of record or near-record conditions going
forward.
UPDATE:
By noon, Pacific time, the Bernardo Fire had expanded to 1680 acres
and spawned two smaller fires in the San Diego region sending
residents in Carlsbad and Poinsettia scrambling. It is difficult to
express how dangerous this situation has become. Risk for severe
intensification of these fires is very high due to extreme
temperatures, humidity in the range of 6% in San Diego, and very
strong Santa Anna winds.
UPDATE:
Passenger photo by cGilbertRun of
three fires plaguing San Diego from inbound airline Wednesday
afternoon at 1 PM Pacific Time:
By
early afternoon, the multiple blazes continued to expand spurring
numerous additional evacuations, cutting off power to homes and
businesses, and causing traffic snarls. Emergency authorities urged
residents to remain at home or work unless ordered to evacuate to
prevent congestion and to speed egress from affected areas.
UPDATE:
By 1:30 PM PST, the Carlsbad Fire had spurred another 15,000
evacuations in San Diego. As of this time, the effect of the third
fire is unknown.
UPDATE:
Blaze near Poinsettia has resulted in an additional 11,000
evacuations. Sporadic reports coming in of three more fires now
underway.
UPDATE:
30 homes reported burned in Carlsbad as of 2:00 PST. Unconfirmed
reports of 103 F temperature readings in central San Diego.
UPDATE:
MODIS shot of fires burning in southwest California and northwest
Mexico during satellite pass this afternoon:
UPDATE:
Local elementary school apparently damaged in Carlsbad Fire.
UPDATE:
Five of the six fires burning in San Diego include: The Carlsbad
Fire, The Oceanside Fire, The Highway Fire in Fallbrook, The Camp
Pendleton Fire, and the Bernardo Fire.
UPDATE:
Seven fires now burning is San Diego. Six are shown on the map below
which does not include the Bernardo Fire:
UPDATE:
New fire reported in San Marcos, bring the total number of San Diego
fires to 8.
UPDATE:
Unconfirmed new fire near Black Mountain (5 PM PST). If confirmed,
this brings the total to 9.
UPDATE:
The San Marcos Fire has prompted yet one more major evacuation.
Thousands of residents fled the fire only to get bogged down in
gridlock near the blaze. Firefighters are now on the ground to
protect San Marcos residences but air support appears delayed,
possibly due to multiple fires resulting in a thinning of resources.
UPDATE:
Large office building now ablaze due to engulfment by the Carlsbad
Fire. Unconfirmed reports of windswept embers falling over portions
of San Diego.
Links:
Hat
Tip to Andy (in San Diego very close to these fires and whom we wish
to remain safe)
Hat
Tip to Kevin Jones, and Mark from New England
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.