The stock market

Fed fears and China credit crunch concerns send jitters through markets

FTSE 100 falls to just above 6000 from all-time highs last month, while Dow Jones index opens 200 points down in New York

the Guardian,

24 June, 2013

Fears that the Federal Reserve is preparing to remove its stimulus from the US economy coupled with anxiety that China is being gripped by its own credit crunch have sent jitters through global stock and bond markets.

The rout hit yields on UK government bonds which hit their highest level since October 2011 in what analysts said was one of the most rapid moves ever witnessed on the market. Yields, which move inversely to price, on 10-year gilts have now risen a full percentage point to edge towards 2.6% in just two months, a rapid pace of change in the potential cost of government borrowing that could in turn increase the price at which companies and households borrow.

The FTSE 100, which last month was testing all-time highs, lost another 70 points to sit just above 6000 – a key level it only moved through at the start of 2013 – while the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US suffered a 200-point loss in the first half hour of trading. Commodity prices, such as copper, were also lower.

Yields on US government bonds, known as Treasuries, also hit two-year highs as investors digested recent remarks by the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, that he might begin to slow down the central bank's $85bn (£55.1bn) monthly purchases of bonds which are being used to simulate the economy.

Governments in the eurozone, particularly the fragile economies of Spain and Italy, also faced their highest borrowing costs since May as yields rose.

Chinese stock markets dropped more than 5%, the biggest fall in three years to reach their lowest close in more than four years, after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) – the central bank – appeared to suggest it would not step in to prevent a rise in the rates at which banks borrow from each other.

Analysts at Nomura said that "investors remain concerned over tight liquidity conditions in the banking system" in China after the PBoC said it would "contain financial risks with more solid actions" and "fine-tune policy when necessary".

The rates which banks borrow from each other in China have jumped to close to 10% and to as much as 25% for some banks – from just 3% a month ago – raising concerns about the impact of lending by non-banks in China, known as shadow banks.

Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets, said: "Fears of a continued cash squeeze in the Chinese banking system has seen European markets continue their soft tone on fears that a dislocation in the banking system will cause further downward revisions in forward expectations for growth over the coming months".

Hewson noted that the warning at the weekend by the Bank for International Settlements, the international central bank organisation, that more stimulus could actually harm fragile economies had also ratted markets. Stephen Cecchetti, head of the BIS monetary and economic department, warned on Sunday: "Unfortunately, central banks cannot do more without compounding the risks they have already created. Monetary stimulus alone cannot put economies on a path to robust, self-sustaining growth, because the roots of the problem preventing such growth are not monetary."

But a senior US central banker attempted to fight back against the market reaction saying that the Fed could not be broken in its resolve in easing back from monetary stimulus in the way that the UK had been forced out of the exchange rate mechanism in 1992 by speculative attacks by George Soros. "But I do believe that big money does organise itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they detect a weakness or a bad scent, they'll go after it," Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, told the Financial Times. The Fed had not even started to cut back its purchases of bonds, Fisher said. "I don't want to go from Wild Turkey to 'Cold Turkey' overnight," said Fisher.

John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said the potential removal for stimulus by the Fed was the main cause of the upheaval in bond markets but said, though, that a "bloodbath" should be averted. Even if US Treasury bond yields rose to 3.5% by the end of the year – from around 2.5% now – it would be low by historical standards, Higgins said.

In China, concerns about a rapid expansion in lending have dogged Beijing's economic management as consumers seek to maintain their living standards by borrowing cash from these local finance companies rather than main stream banks, although much of the lending can ultimately be traced back to the banking sector. Deutsche Bank has estimated that the among credit extended by non-banks could account for as much as 40% of Chinese GDP.

Capital Economics' China analyst, Mark Williams, said investors were factoring in lower growth as the credit squeeze takes effect while the Nomura analysts said the liquidity squeeze was the first real test for China's new leaders, in office for just three months.

"If the new leaders maintain their current approach, we believe it will add downside risk to growth in 2013 but in our opinion this would help reduce systemic financial risks, supporting long-term sustainable growth," the Nomura analysts said.

China's economy has already slowed in recent months: manufacturing contracted and property construction weakened in May, leading most analysts to say that hopes earlier this year of a bounce in growth have proved misplaced.